A recent paper quantified the effect of changing fertility on housing demand (via Arpit Gupta).| Erdmann Housing Tracker
Well, I had high hopes for this report.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
This month, rent inflation as estimated with Zillow’s ZORI data continued to appear to settle into a trend somewhere between 1% and 2% and core non-shelter CPI prices moved higher.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
The Census Bureau updated the residential construction numbers this morning.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
First, I should clarify a point I made in a previous post. This is a bit in the weeds and probably more of a nerd-out about the particulars of my model than most readers want to bother with. So I am indenting the part that most of you will want to skip.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
I saw this explanation of the power of large scale investors on Twitter:| Erdmann Housing Tracker
Figure 1 is from yesterday’s post. Here, I want to discuss in more detail the phases of price and rent trends.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
I happened to be looking at this Mian & Sufi paper from 2014, which is a stark reminder of the blindness of the economics academy coming out of the Great Recession.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
I estimate the post-2008 national shortage of homes to be roughly 15 to 20 million units.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
I have been reviewing the interaction between housing and the business cycle.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
Continuing the discussion of housing and the business cycle, let’s walk through how patterns have changed over the past 65 years.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
And 2025 2Q GDP Update| Erdmann Housing Tracker
Lately, this sort of chart has been a popular citation for housing supply advocates.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
I want to discuss the last chart from yesterday’s post a little more.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
The chart in the previous post that I thought was funny was Figure 1.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
This was supposed to be a post about regional sales and construction trends, but I keep being re-convinced each time I do this that that the regional trends aren’t as useful as you would swear they must be.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
It’s kind of crazy if you look at Figure 1 a certain way.| Erdmann Housing Tracker
If we fixed American land use regulations and mortgage financing, there would be a building boom.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
In March, I wrote that inflation was over.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
In this post I am going to revisit a factoid from the financial crisis that is one of the many points at odds with conventional wisdom.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
One facet of mortgage data that you normally see cited by credit hawks is that debt-to-income (DTI) ratios are high on new mortgages.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
I promise that I will end this series of posts with some actionable conclusions.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Boy, aren’t these exciting times for inflation updates?!| kevinerdmann.substack.com
In "Price is the Medium Through Which Housing Filters Up or Down" I walked through a description of the filtering process in an attempt to connect its existence in practice with the price and rent patterns that arise in its absence (or reversal).| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Building a properly supply-focused housing sector POV| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Building a properly supply-focused housing sector POV| kevinerdmann.substack.com
It's the rent! No, really!| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Building a properly supply-focused housing sector POV| kevinerdmann.substack.com
In previous posts, I have disaggregated American residential real estate value into various components.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
The other day, my Mercatus colleague Salim Furth tweeted:| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Inadequate supply (even "luxury" supply) hurts poor families. Full Stop.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Post GFC: Under-priced and under-produced housing| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Pre-GFC: Local Obstructions| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Previously, I posted that supply changes are slow moving and demand changes can be fast moving.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
In this post, I want to continue the discussion of the effect of new housing supply on residential property values at a more macro level.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
In this month’s update, I want to start out with a discussion of home prices and home sizes.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
The First of a Series of Papers at Mercatus| kevinerdmann.substack.com
Deflating real home price indexes with rents, locally| kevinerdmann.substack.com
I’ll begin, as last month, with a review of recent rent trends.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
There seems to be a developing consensus that transitory inflation was a myth that was proven wrong because (1) inflation was high for longer than anticipated, (2) it led to a permanent rise in the price level, and (3) it took rate hikes to bring it down.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
This is a less complicated post than I usually write.| kevinerdmann.substack.com
