Ukrainian ultra-nationalists could exploit his pretext of a “just, defensive war” to falsely legitimize a terrorist campaign in southeastern Poland, whose land they regard as their own and whose local East Slavs they claim were ethnically cleansed after World War II, on “historical justice” grounds.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Japan’s place in the US’ Chinese Containment Coalition just rose as a result of the unexpected Sino-Indo rapprochement, prior to which the US wanted India to play a complementary role, so Japan is now at the forefront of this effort.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
They’re all primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The precedent that was established could soon be weaponized against it.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Poland’s role in providing more US LNG to Central & Eastern Europe is expected to erode Germany’s influence in this region and accelerate Poland’s revival of its lost Great Power status.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Russia might still fund some less ambitious infrastructure projects in its Far East-Arctic region to keep the economy hot after the war ends, help veterans find work, and encourage settlement there.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The US was most responsible for the Ukrainian Conflict by refusing to reach a compromise with Russia for defusing their security dilemma, but Germany deserves as much blame as Poland and the Baltic States, perhaps even more because it was the EU’s de facto leader at the time.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The precedent established by the EU sanctioning Russia under US pressure despite the mutual costs that this entailed discredits the liberal-inspired International Relations theory that complex interdependence between countries is an effective deterrent to future tensions.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
This importantly doesn’t equate to endorsing his controversial logic, which observers should in any case try to understand even if they disagree with it since his rationale aligns with Polish state interests.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The West already turned Ukraine, Armenia, and Moldova into anti-Russian states while stirring trouble in its ties with Azerbaijan and eagerly eyeing Central Asian leader Kazakhstan so the loss of Belarus would practically complete Russia’s strategic encirclement.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
They’re embarking on a joint post-modern “nation-building mission” similar in spirit to the dozens that Russia’s Soviet predecessor was famous for across the Global South.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The geostrategic context of newfound pressure upon each, their increased bilateral tensions, and rising fears that false flag provocations in Europe could manipulate them into war with one another make it likely that their planned Budapest Summit will be more successful than the Anchorage one.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
This would help India counteract US pressure, avert the scenario of Russia becoming disproportionately dependent on China, and further improve Sino-Indo ties.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Fortifying the Durand Line, eliminating sleeper cell threats on Pakistan’s side, and dividing-and-ruling Afghanistan through hybrid means can ensure Pakistan’s national security in lieu of the invasion that the US might be putting Pakistan up to in advance of America’s geopolitical and mineral-related goals.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Lavrov suggested that they could facilitate the dispatch of aid to Africa, but it’s also possible that they might host complex military-diplomatic talks between all stakeholders in Syria while also helping its armed forces maintain national unity by re-equipping, training, and advising them too.| korybko.substack.com
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ recent US-inspired “democracy building” rhetoric about Afghanistan ominously suggests that Pakistan might be preparing an American-backed regime change operation.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
His arrogant and aggressive behavior towards Russia, India, and China is responsible for this.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Russia creatively employed “reflexive control” to troll Estonia by placing its officials in a zero-sum dilemma whereby whichever response they’d resort to would advance Russia’s soft power interests.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The US and Ukraine’s arguably coordinated fearmongering campaign about the regional security consequences of Cubans allegedly fighting for Russia hints that the island will soon come under more pressure.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
If Russia’s intelligence services determine that this is undeniable or at least plausible, then ties with Pakistan will predictably worsen, while Russia’s trust in the Taliban would be greatly damaged if it turns out that the group lied.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Tusk would defy public opinion, doom the ruling liberal-globalist coalition’s already dismal prospects of remaining in power after fall 2027’s next parliamentary election, and risk facilitating a German show trial that could implicate Poland in this attack for covering up the US’ actual involvement.| korybko.substack.com
He arguably tried to convey – however wonkishly and indirectly—that he’d be receptive to his Polish counterpart calling him to de-escalate tensions in order to avert World War III after Nawrocki didn’t rule out doing so in a recent interview if he believed that it would help Poland’s security.| korybko.substack.com
Pakistani-US ties are on the cusp of a renaissance that could restore their Old Cold War-era “golden age” of relations provided that they remain on track as expected.| korybko.substack.com
These are the 2020 Lublin Triangle (Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania), the 2022 de facto alliance between Ukraine, Poland, and the UK, and early August’s Odessa Triangle with Romania and Moldova.| korybko.substack.com
Trump appears to be pushing his luck with Putin, who’s open to compromises, not concessions, let alone significant security ones.| korybko.substack.com
This should be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict.| korybko.substack.com
Fico can’t realistically expect any relief from the EU pressure upon him if he threatened to obstruct the shipment of Ukrainian-destined arms through Slovakia after the conflict ends.| korybko.substack.com
Having captured Russian drones bomb NATO logistics hubs in Poland and Romania via a modern-day “Gleiwitz incident” could achieve Ukraine’s goal of sparking a hot NATO-Russian war.| korybko.substack.com
If it turns out that Trump’s flip-flop on Ukraine was just him paying lip service to NATO’s goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia and he doesn’t ultimately escalate US involvement, then some of the bloc’s members might try to down Russian jets over the Baltic in order to finally force his hand.| korybko.substack.com
Even worse, it would be all because of Zelensky’s lust for money and power, not any legitimate reason.| korybko.substack.com
The US decided that India’s rise as a Great Power must be derailed and it’ll pursue this by all possible means.| korybko.substack.com
These are being advanced through a combination of information warfare and support for anti-government (Brussels-organized) “NGOs” (BONGOs).| korybko.substack.com
A compromise is possible whereby the Europeans are pressured by the US into stockpiling their Ukrainian-destined arms in Poland and Romania for swift shipment across the border if hostilities re-erupt sometime after a ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty is agreed to.| korybko.substack.com
Russia can expect nothing in return from the EU if Putin concedes to allow their troops and aircraft to deploy in and patrol over Western Ukraine.| korybko.substack.com
The US could do to China in Myanmar what it’s currently doing to Russia in Ukraine.| korybko.substack.com
Whichever way one cuts it, the US is the most disruptive force in this process, and it has every reason to sabotage its systemic rival’s peace talks for divide-and-rule purposes in the New Cold War.| korybko.substack.com
China wants to retain access to Kachin State’s rare earths, the US wants to poach them, and their escalating competition over this part of Myanmar could make it the next New Cold War flashpoint.| korybko.substack.com
The returning premier’s latest remarks are clearly trying to distract from his country’s worst political crisis since the 1980s while simultaneously discrediting his predecessor and those bonafide Polish patriots who’ve soured on Ukraine in recent months as well.| korybko.substack.com
What’s taking place is Donald Tusk’s systematic subordination of Poland to German hegemony as a quid pro quo for its support of his return to power.| korybko.substack.com
Both parties are in a dilemma whereby each believes that they have more to gain at the level of national and political interests by escalating tensions than by being the first to de-escalate them.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s socio-economic and political problems are rapidly approaching crisis proportions and can only sustainably be resolved by freezing the conflict and focusing entirely on maintaining stability through multifaceted means.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s problems are immense and multifaceted, but they’re all connected one way or another to the five following factors.| korybko.substack.com
Zelensky’s decision to hold Biden’s re-election bid hostage by threatening to unleash a massive economic crisis as revenge for the Congressional deadlock on Ukraine aid might be his downfall.| korybko.substack.com
At the absolute most, this aid package might prevent Ukraine’s collapse by keeping the state running and possibly slowing down Russia’s already glacial advance, thus potentially averting the worst-case scenario that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned about in late February.| korybko.substack.com
What’s regarded as the worst-case scenario from the perspective of the ruling Ukrainian elite and their Western masters is the best-case scenario for the rest of the world.| korybko.substack.com
Everything is moving so fast that nobody can say with confidence exactly what will or won’t happen, but a reminder of each side’s interests as their policymakers conceive them to be can help obtain a better idea of how likely certain scenarios might be.| korybko.substack.com
The person best positioned for uniting the country’s fractured opposition was just “politically executed” as part of the latest Western powerplay in this former Soviet Republic.| korybko.substack.com
He’s still ruffling Russia’s feathers over Ukraine and the AZAL tragedy, but he restrained himself from going further, so the door might thus be opening for a mutually beneficial rapprochement if the political will can be mustered by both sides.| korybko.substack.com
They might wait until after Russia agrees to a ceasefire (if it ever does) since replacing him with Zaluzhny while hostilities still rage could further weaken Ukraine to Russia’s benefit.| korybko.substack.com
The Europeans’ compliance or lack thereof will play a crucial role in the conflict’s future course.| korybko.substack.com
His threatened secondary sanctions could majorly backfire by harming the US’ own interests.| korybko.substack.com
This could raise the chances for a breakthrough somewhere along the front, help to decisively shift domestic public opinion against the conflict, and thus make it easier for “deep state” forces to conspire against Zelensky.| korybko.substack.com
The most realistic best-case scenario for Russia would be that the US seriously tries coercing Ukraine into concessions, Russia doesn’t devastatingly retaliate to any subsequently desperate Ukrainian provocations, and then Ukraine capitulates shortly thereafter once the US cuts it off.| korybko.substack.com
These statistics from one of the EU’s top think tanks, which can’t be accused of being funded by Russia or operating as its propaganda laundromat, probably come as a shock to outside observers who thought that Poles were gung-ho about this proxy war.| korybko.substack.com
What most in the Alt-Media Community struggle to accept is that multipolarity doesn’t imply a geopolitical utopia wherein problems between all non-Western countries immediately disappear due to their shared interest in moving past the US-centric unipolar system.| korybko.substack.com
Miroshnik and Zakharova said different things last week about these peacekeepers’ real purpose and their degree of coordination with Kiev in the unlikely scenario of them being deployed to Ukraine.| korybko.substack.com
The nearly quarter billion people who live in Pakistan are suffering due to a handful of corrupt military and political figures dutifully complying with the dog whistle blown by a leading US diplomat ordering them to depose their patriotic multipolar premier or risk losing perks from the West.| korybko.substack.com
No one should expect the Alt-Media Community to correct the false perceptions that “Potemkinism” associated with Russian policy towards Israel in the minds of their audience over the years.| korybko.substack.com
OneWorld is publishing the full-length English version of the interview that Andrew Korybko gave to Oxu.Az’s Sayad Hasanli about the Ukrainian Conflict, which was subsequently shortened and then released under the title “Rusiya-Ukrayna müharibəsinin görünməyən tərəfləri - Amerikalı ekspertin Oxu.Az-a MÜSAHİBƏSİ”.| korybko.substack.com
While a sizeable minority of the population conforms with the stereotype of Poles being gung-ho about NATO’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine, a roughly equal minority has soured on it, while Poles as a whole are still moderately pro-Ukrainian likely due to socio-cultural and historical factors.| korybko.substack.com
The interplay between them, Russia, and the US will determine the continent’s future security architecture.| korybko.substack.com
Here’s the full interview that I gave to Newsweek’s Tom O’Connor, excerpts of which were included in his article about “What A Trump-Putin Detente Means for Russia and Iran's Partnership”.| korybko.substack.com
The driving force for removing the Taliban’s terrorist designation and inviting it to next month’s investment forum is the desire to make tangible progress on reaching a strategic energy deal with Pakistan, which would complete its Ummah Pivot and Greater Eurasian Partnership.| korybko.substack.com
Continued maritime exports to the Indian Ocean Region across the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean Seas might be deemed strategically undependable due to tensions with the West, hence the need to pioneer a more reliable alternative.| korybko.substack.com
President Putin is taking up the mantle of Lenin in modern-day international conditions without any ideological agenda other than promoting multipolarity, sovereignty, and traditional values.| korybko.substack.com
Russia has mastered the art of “Democratic Security” at home so there’s no doubt that the Golden Billion’s political fantasy to “decolonize” (“Balkanize”) it is doomed to fail.| korybko.substack.com
The New Cold War is all about autocracy versus democracy like the US claims, but true to fashion, the leader of the Golden Billion lies in a Goebbels-like way to flip everyone’s roles by falsely presenting itself and its vassals as the beacons of democracy while its geostrategic opponents are all smeared as autocracies.| korybko.substack.com
Post-Soviet Russia hadn’t ever intended to, but it’s now following in the global revolutionary footsteps of its communist predecessor, which speaks to an intriguing trend connected to this civilization-state’s historical role in International Relations.| korybko.substack.com
What follows is a summary of everything that the Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs shared, after which some concluding thoughts will wrap up the analysis.| korybko.substack.com
There’s no doubt that the American grand strategy is to contain Russia through the proxy war means that were described in this analysis as proven by a comparison between the Georgian and Ukrainian Conflicts.| korybko.substack.com
The Russian leader was the first to talk about a European-wide populist-nationalist revolution and to foresee the emergence of civilization-states as the next phase of the global systemic transition.| korybko.substack.com
To be clear, the explanations and forecasts shared in this analysis concern the scenario of a Russian rapprochement with the West upon the successful conclusion of peace talks with the US, they’re not in any way a declaration of what will absolutely come to pass.| korybko.substack.com
The path ahead will be very difficult due to the sensitive issues that Russia and the US must resolve.| korybko.substack.com
Although the Biden Administration is controlled by liberal-globalists who believe that the US should continue letting the EU freeload off of it as a reward for their ideological alignment, military-strategic imperatives vis-a-vis China have already prompted the Pentagon to partially implement Trump’s plan.| korybko.substack.com
Trump’s preference for sanctions and his latest threat to double down on secondary ones could derail India’s careful multi-alignment between the US and Russia by forcing it to choose between them.| korybko.substack.com
Pakistan’s plans are ambitious, and it would be mutually beneficial if they’re implemented, but that can’t be taken for granted.| korybko.substack.com
China wasn’t ever going to be manipulated into de facto taking the US’ political side in this conflict against Russia by dint of joining Lula’s “peace club” and thus extending credence to his hostile demand that their shared BRICS partner immediately withdraw from all the territory that Kiev claims as its own.| korybko.substack.com
There’s no doubt that BRICS’ planned creation of a new reserve currency will accelerate de-dollarization processes and advance financial multipolarity, but that’s very different from the dollar’s death that many folks prematurely predicted.| korybko.substack.com
There’s no doubt that upcoming Saudi moves in support of the petroyuan that are taken in coordination with Iran and Russia would catalyze the next natural phase of de-dollarization.| korybko.substack.com
China wants to freeze this problem and decouple it from the rest of its bilateral relations with India, while India insists that the status quo ante Galwan be restored as the condition for comprehensively expanding their ties in the new era.| korybko.substack.com
Trump’s reported plan for a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine places Russia in the dilemma of either preempting this with another large-scale nationwide offensive, targeting those forces after they enter at the risk of sparking World War III, or tacitly accepting this endgame.| korybko.substack.com
The socio-cultural and political clarifications shared in this analysis are essential to accept if one wants to truly understand the strategic dynamics of the New Cold War.| korybko.substack.com
Poland is unprecedentedly important nowadays, but Germany still remains in control of the EU’s foreign policy.| korybko.substack.com
Russia envisages the improvement of relations with Pakistan enabling it to mediate a resolution to that country’s disputes with Afghanistan and India, per all parties’ request for its diplomatic assistance of course, in order to pioneer new energy and trade corridors to South Asia.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine will still remain a de facto member of NATO so long as its security guarantees with the bloc’s members remain in effect.| korybko.substack.com
Properly framing everything is of the highest importance in order to gradually erode the Western elite’s propaganda in a similar spirit as the emerging Multipolar World Order has already gradually eroded the former’s unipolar hegemony, which will thus further accelerate the global systemic transition.| korybko.substack.com
Nikolay Patrushev’s latest interview was exceptionally important for the way in which he excoriated the West, particularly the paradigm through which he did so.| korybko.substack.com
By its very nature, the Golden Billion divides the international community into a rigid US-determined hierarchy whereby vassals who do its bidding are afforded certain “privileges” (or at least the promise and/or perception thereof in the eyes of their population) while the rest are ruthlessly pressured to submit to its demands.| korybko.substack.com
Quite clearly, humanitarian motivations played a major role in President Putin’s decision to commence his country’s special operation.| korybko.substack.com
Critics might claim that President Putin’s new outlook came eight years too late, but late is always better than never.| korybko.substack.com
Hindsight is 20/20 as the clichéd saying goes, ergo the importance of reviewing prior assessments of every key player’s perceptions and associated assumptions about their interests ¾ of a year after the global systemic transition unprecedentedly accelerated as a result of this proxy war.| korybko.substack.com
Those of his supporters in the Alt-Media Community who convinced themselves that the special operation won’t stop until Russian forces reach the Polish border are bound to be infuriated by this assessment, but it’s based on his own words as proven by the official Kremlin website.| korybko.substack.com
This is the first time since then that they’ve conventionally fought a military peer, albeit by proxy for now.| korybko.substack.com
These latest observations about how counterproductive the counteroffensive has been for Ukrainian-Western unity, solidarity within their respective ranks, and Ukraine’s human and military resources mean that Russia’s prior interest in a ceasefire can no longer be taken for granted.| korybko.substack.com
Had President Putin reacted differently to Prigozhin’s coup, then the Union State could have already dissolved by now in the event that NATO formally invaded Belarus while Russia was plunged into civil war, which might have coincided with Kiev reviving its failed counteroffensive to reconquer all of its lost regions.| korybko.substack.com
This piece will assess the state of affairs as it now exists with the intent of obtaining a better idea about what might come next.| korybko.substack.com
It's of the highest importance during this time to apply President Putin’s advice against indulging in wishful thinking by eschewing “5D chess” conspiracy theories and other coping mechanisms so as to not artificially inflate the hopes of Russia’s supporters and thus set them up for another possibly impending fall.| korybko.substack.com
Those who aren’t irredeemably brainwashed and sincerely aspire to understand the global systemic transition to multipolarity as it objectively exists instead of indulging in wishful thinking about it should use this unpleasant development as the opportunity to finally awaken.| korybko.substack.com
It was always unrealistic to imagine that BRICS is an alliance of completely sovereign countries that have united due to their shared hatred of the West and are thus plotting to topple the dollar’s dominance in the near future like some of the Alt-Media Community’s top influencers claim.| korybko.substack.com
The grand strategic insight shared in the present analysis helps put the results from the Observer Research Foundation’s latest survey in their proper perspective.| korybko.substack.com
