There’s nothing radical or extreme about standing in solidarity with the UNSC-endorsed cause of Palestinian independence, but some advocates have indisputably gone overboard after October 7th into backing bonafide acts of terrorism committed on the false pretext of advancing this same cause.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The “race of logistics” between Russia and NATO, which is presently unfolding in the context of their proxy war in Ukraine, will continue even after the conflict ends.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Poland’s territorial integrity and possibly even its statehood could be threatened if the authorities don’t thwart this scenario by at the very least amending the Citizenship Law and then “creatively coercing” most of this community into re-migrating to Ukraine.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
It would be regrettable from Russia’s perspective but not surprising if true.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
This could most significantly provide the domestic political basis for reviving the Visegrad Group.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The convergence of interests between the US, Pakistan, and the Taliban means that a compromise between them to this end can’t be ruled out no matter how unlikely it might appear to be right now.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
He arguably tried to convey – however wonkishly and indirectly—that he’d be receptive to his Polish counterpart calling him to de-escalate tensions in order to avert World War III after Nawrocki didn’t rule out doing so in a recent interview if he believed that it would help Poland’s security.| korybko.substack.com
These reports remain unconfirmed at the time of writing, but they aren’t unreasonable since India has every reason to want to deprive its rival of this high-quality equipment after their latest clashes in spring, though so too does Russia have its own reasons for defying this request like the reports claim.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Top “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” influencers from the Alt-Media Community are responsible for misleading the public about its policy towards this conflict and the West Asian Wars in general.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
To be clear, the Valdai Club only represents one of Russia’s policymaking factions and their insight might not accurately reflect Putin’s calculations, which could always change in any case.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The supplementary economic benefits and perceived acceleration of multipolar trends might appeal to Russia, but the latent military-strategic threats to its interests arguably outweigh them.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The common denominator between these developments is the progress being made on reviving Poland’s long-lost status as a Great Power as proven by its increasingly central role in the region.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Pakistani-US ties are on the cusp of a renaissance that could restore their Old Cold War-era “golden age” of relations provided that they remain on track as expected.| korybko.substack.com
There’s little doubt that Ukraine has an interest in escalating NATO-Russian tensions through these means, including by employing anti-government Russian and Belarusian nationals in this reported plot, but it’s debatable whether Poland is involved in this and the extent to which it might be if so.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
It’s highly suspicious that Zelensky just claimed without any evidence that they were launched by Russian tankers and subsequently demanded that Europe close the straits to its shipping in response.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
These are the 2020 Lublin Triangle (Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania), the 2022 de facto alliance between Ukraine, Poland, and the UK, and early August’s Odessa Triangle with Romania and Moldova.| korybko.substack.com
Even in the best-case scenario that their tensions remain manageable, NATO will still solidify its presence along Ukraine’s southwestern flank which also serves as the Black Sea’s northwestern one, thus doubling the potential trouble that the bloc could one day pose for Russia.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
They have historical axes to grind against Russia after its imperial predecessor state was responsible for ending their Golden Ages as Great Powers.| korybko.substack.com
Trump appears to be pushing his luck with Putin, who’s open to compromises, not concessions, let alone significant security ones.| korybko.substack.com
This should be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict.| korybko.substack.com
Fico can’t realistically expect any relief from the EU pressure upon him if he threatened to obstruct the shipment of Ukrainian-destined arms through Slovakia after the conflict ends.| korybko.substack.com
Having captured Russian drones bomb NATO logistics hubs in Poland and Romania via a modern-day “Gleiwitz incident” could achieve Ukraine’s goal of sparking a hot NATO-Russian war.| korybko.substack.com
Germany could subsidize Poland’s military-industrial complex as a form of reparations.| korybko.substack.com
This would result in the de facto new Iron Curtain and associated NATO influence stretching up to whatever the new Russian-Ukrainian border might be by the time the conflict ends.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The EU wants to appeal more to its eastern vanguard states by fearmongering about Russia while the US’ lack of criticism is due to Trump’s interest in avoiding anything that could spook Putin into ending their talks on Ukraine if he suspected that they’re a ruse to buy time and get his guard down.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Direct Western intervention in the conflict is now arguably turning into a fait accompli, it’s just a question of how Russia will respond and whether the US will then be pulled into mission creep.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
If it turns out that Trump’s flip-flop on Ukraine was just him paying lip service to NATO’s goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia and he doesn’t ultimately escalate US involvement, then some of the bloc’s members might try to down Russian jets over the Baltic in order to finally force his hand.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Even worse, it would be all because of Zelensky’s lust for money and power, not any legitimate reason.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Accusations of hypocrisy will abound due to its opposition to others’ reported such plans, but negative media coverage is the only consequence that’ll likely follow since Russia probably won’t risk war with NATO by launching a preventive strike against French nukes in Poland or Polish nuclear facilities.| Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The US decided that India’s rise as a Great Power must be derailed and it’ll pursue this by all possible means.| korybko.substack.com
These are being advanced through a combination of information warfare and support for anti-government (Brussels-organized) “NGOs” (BONGOs).| korybko.substack.com
The EU would plunge into a full-blown recession if it complied, but that might be what Trump wants so as to bankrupt its companies and thus give US ones a greater edge in the newly tariff-free EU market.| korybko.substack.com
Geostrategic analysis of the New Cold War. Click to read Andrew Korybko's Newsletter, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.| korybko.substack.com
Step by step, Trump is turning “Sleepy Joe Biden’s War” into his own, exactly as Steve Bannon warned him not to do.| korybko.substack.com
A compromise is possible whereby the Europeans are pressured by the US into stockpiling their Ukrainian-destined arms in Poland and Romania for swift shipment across the border if hostilities re-erupt sometime after a ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty is agreed to.| korybko.substack.com
Russia can expect nothing in return from the EU if Putin concedes to allow their troops and aircraft to deploy in and patrol over Western Ukraine.| korybko.substack.com
The US could do to China in Myanmar what it’s currently doing to Russia in Ukraine.| korybko.substack.com
Whichever way one cuts it, the US is the most disruptive force in this process, and it has every reason to sabotage its systemic rival’s peace talks for divide-and-rule purposes in the New Cold War.| korybko.substack.com
China wants to retain access to Kachin State’s rare earths, the US wants to poach them, and their escalating competition over this part of Myanmar could make it the next New Cold War flashpoint.| korybko.substack.com
The returning premier’s latest remarks are clearly trying to distract from his country’s worst political crisis since the 1980s while simultaneously discrediting his predecessor and those bonafide Polish patriots who’ve soured on Ukraine in recent months as well.| korybko.substack.com
The Financial Times candidly spelled out the perception management plan that the New York Times is now dutifully following to a tee, all for the purpose of preconditioning the public to accept a compromise for ending this proxy war.| korybko.substack.com
What’s taking place is Donald Tusk’s systematic subordination of Poland to German hegemony as a quid pro quo for its support of his return to power.| korybko.substack.com
Both parties are in a dilemma whereby each believes that they have more to gain at the level of national and political interests by escalating tensions than by being the first to de-escalate them.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s socio-economic and political problems are rapidly approaching crisis proportions and can only sustainably be resolved by freezing the conflict and focusing entirely on maintaining stability through multifaceted means.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s problems are immense and multifaceted, but they’re all connected one way or another to the five following factors.| korybko.substack.com
Zelensky’s decision to hold Biden’s re-election bid hostage by threatening to unleash a massive economic crisis as revenge for the Congressional deadlock on Ukraine aid might be his downfall.| korybko.substack.com
At the absolute most, this aid package might prevent Ukraine’s collapse by keeping the state running and possibly slowing down Russia’s already glacial advance, thus potentially averting the worst-case scenario that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned about in late February.| korybko.substack.com
What’s regarded as the worst-case scenario from the perspective of the ruling Ukrainian elite and their Western masters is the best-case scenario for the rest of the world.| korybko.substack.com
Everything is moving so fast that nobody can say with confidence exactly what will or won’t happen, but a reminder of each side’s interests as their policymakers conceive them to be can help obtain a better idea of how likely certain scenarios might be.| korybko.substack.com
The person best positioned for uniting the country’s fractured opposition was just “politically executed” as part of the latest Western powerplay in this former Soviet Republic.| korybko.substack.com
He’s still ruffling Russia’s feathers over Ukraine and the AZAL tragedy, but he restrained himself from going further, so the door might thus be opening for a mutually beneficial rapprochement if the political will can be mustered by both sides.| korybko.substack.com
They might wait until after Russia agrees to a ceasefire (if it ever does) since replacing him with Zaluzhny while hostilities still rage could further weaken Ukraine to Russia’s benefit.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s gravy train will continue chugging along, fueled by Western taxpayers’ funds, though all this promised aid will only perpetuate the proxy war on Russia instead of ending it.| korybko.substack.com
The Europeans’ compliance or lack thereof will play a crucial role in the conflict’s future course.| korybko.substack.com
His threatened secondary sanctions could majorly backfire by harming the US’ own interests.| korybko.substack.com
Laos would bolster its geopolitical balancing act while Russia could experiment with a new military-political partnership model that it might then fine-tune for its other Global South partners.| korybko.substack.com
This could raise the chances for a breakthrough somewhere along the front, help to decisively shift domestic public opinion against the conflict, and thus make it easier for “deep state” forces to conspire against Zelensky.| korybko.substack.com
The emerging “Global West” concept isn’t just a “collection of democracies” like it’s been portrayed by some, but a collection of US military partners that can be relied upon for helping to contain its Eurasian rivals.| korybko.substack.com
The most realistic best-case scenario for Russia would be that the US seriously tries coercing Ukraine into concessions, Russia doesn’t devastatingly retaliate to any subsequently desperate Ukrainian provocations, and then Ukraine capitulates shortly thereafter once the US cuts it off.| korybko.substack.com
These statistics from one of the EU’s top think tanks, which can’t be accused of being funded by Russia or operating as its propaganda laundromat, probably come as a shock to outside observers who thought that Poles were gung-ho about this proxy war.| korybko.substack.com
What most in the Alt-Media Community struggle to accept is that multipolarity doesn’t imply a geopolitical utopia wherein problems between all non-Western countries immediately disappear due to their shared interest in moving past the US-centric unipolar system.| korybko.substack.com
Miroshnik and Zakharova said different things last week about these peacekeepers’ real purpose and their degree of coordination with Kiev in the unlikely scenario of them being deployed to Ukraine.| korybko.substack.com
The nearly quarter billion people who live in Pakistan are suffering due to a handful of corrupt military and political figures dutifully complying with the dog whistle blown by a leading US diplomat ordering them to depose their patriotic multipolar premier or risk losing perks from the West.| korybko.substack.com
No one should expect the Alt-Media Community to correct the false perceptions that “Potemkinism” associated with Russian policy towards Israel in the minds of their audience over the years.| korybko.substack.com
OneWorld is publishing the full-length English version of the interview that Andrew Korybko gave to Oxu.Az’s Sayad Hasanli about the Ukrainian Conflict, which was subsequently shortened and then released under the title “Rusiya-Ukrayna müharibəsinin görünməyən tərəfləri - Amerikalı ekspertin Oxu.Az-a MÜSAHİBƏSİ”.| korybko.substack.com
While a sizeable minority of the population conforms with the stereotype of Poles being gung-ho about NATO’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine, a roughly equal minority has soured on it, while Poles as a whole are still moderately pro-Ukrainian likely due to socio-cultural and historical factors.| korybko.substack.com
The interplay between them, Russia, and the US will determine the continent’s future security architecture.| korybko.substack.com
Here’s the full interview that I gave to Newsweek’s Tom O’Connor, excerpts of which were included in his article about “What A Trump-Putin Detente Means for Russia and Iran's Partnership”.| korybko.substack.com
The driving force for removing the Taliban’s terrorist designation and inviting it to next month’s investment forum is the desire to make tangible progress on reaching a strategic energy deal with Pakistan, which would complete its Ummah Pivot and Greater Eurasian Partnership.| korybko.substack.com
Continued maritime exports to the Indian Ocean Region across the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean Seas might be deemed strategically undependable due to tensions with the West, hence the need to pioneer a more reliable alternative.| korybko.substack.com
President Putin is taking up the mantle of Lenin in modern-day international conditions without any ideological agenda other than promoting multipolarity, sovereignty, and traditional values.| korybko.substack.com
Russia has mastered the art of “Democratic Security” at home so there’s no doubt that the Golden Billion’s political fantasy to “decolonize” (“Balkanize”) it is doomed to fail.| korybko.substack.com
The New Cold War is all about autocracy versus democracy like the US claims, but true to fashion, the leader of the Golden Billion lies in a Goebbels-like way to flip everyone’s roles by falsely presenting itself and its vassals as the beacons of democracy while its geostrategic opponents are all smeared as autocracies.| korybko.substack.com
Post-Soviet Russia hadn’t ever intended to, but it’s now following in the global revolutionary footsteps of its communist predecessor, which speaks to an intriguing trend connected to this civilization-state’s historical role in International Relations.| korybko.substack.com
What follows is a summary of everything that the Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs shared, after which some concluding thoughts will wrap up the analysis.| korybko.substack.com
There’s no doubt that the American grand strategy is to contain Russia through the proxy war means that were described in this analysis as proven by a comparison between the Georgian and Ukrainian Conflicts.| korybko.substack.com
The Russian leader was the first to talk about a European-wide populist-nationalist revolution and to foresee the emergence of civilization-states as the next phase of the global systemic transition.| korybko.substack.com
To be clear, the explanations and forecasts shared in this analysis concern the scenario of a Russian rapprochement with the West upon the successful conclusion of peace talks with the US, they’re not in any way a declaration of what will absolutely come to pass.| korybko.substack.com
The path ahead will be very difficult due to the sensitive issues that Russia and the US must resolve.| korybko.substack.com
Although the Biden Administration is controlled by liberal-globalists who believe that the US should continue letting the EU freeload off of it as a reward for their ideological alignment, military-strategic imperatives vis-a-vis China have already prompted the Pentagon to partially implement Trump’s plan.| korybko.substack.com
Trump’s preference for sanctions and his latest threat to double down on secondary ones could derail India’s careful multi-alignment between the US and Russia by forcing it to choose between them.| korybko.substack.com
Pakistan’s plans are ambitious, and it would be mutually beneficial if they’re implemented, but that can’t be taken for granted.| korybko.substack.com
China wasn’t ever going to be manipulated into de facto taking the US’ political side in this conflict against Russia by dint of joining Lula’s “peace club” and thus extending credence to his hostile demand that their shared BRICS partner immediately withdraw from all the territory that Kiev claims as its own.| korybko.substack.com
There’s no doubt that BRICS’ planned creation of a new reserve currency will accelerate de-dollarization processes and advance financial multipolarity, but that’s very different from the dollar’s death that many folks prematurely predicted.| korybko.substack.com
There’s no doubt that upcoming Saudi moves in support of the petroyuan that are taken in coordination with Iran and Russia would catalyze the next natural phase of de-dollarization.| korybko.substack.com
China wants to freeze this problem and decouple it from the rest of its bilateral relations with India, while India insists that the status quo ante Galwan be restored as the condition for comprehensively expanding their ties in the new era.| korybko.substack.com
Trump’s reported plan for a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine places Russia in the dilemma of either preempting this with another large-scale nationwide offensive, targeting those forces after they enter at the risk of sparking World War III, or tacitly accepting this endgame.| korybko.substack.com
The socio-cultural and political clarifications shared in this analysis are essential to accept if one wants to truly understand the strategic dynamics of the New Cold War.| korybko.substack.com
Poland is unprecedentedly important nowadays, but Germany still remains in control of the EU’s foreign policy.| korybko.substack.com
Russia envisages the improvement of relations with Pakistan enabling it to mediate a resolution to that country’s disputes with Afghanistan and India, per all parties’ request for its diplomatic assistance of course, in order to pioneer new energy and trade corridors to South Asia.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine will still remain a de facto member of NATO so long as its security guarantees with the bloc’s members remain in effect.| korybko.substack.com
Properly framing everything is of the highest importance in order to gradually erode the Western elite’s propaganda in a similar spirit as the emerging Multipolar World Order has already gradually eroded the former’s unipolar hegemony, which will thus further accelerate the global systemic transition.| korybko.substack.com
Nikolay Patrushev’s latest interview was exceptionally important for the way in which he excoriated the West, particularly the paradigm through which he did so.| korybko.substack.com
By its very nature, the Golden Billion divides the international community into a rigid US-determined hierarchy whereby vassals who do its bidding are afforded certain “privileges” (or at least the promise and/or perception thereof in the eyes of their population) while the rest are ruthlessly pressured to submit to its demands.| korybko.substack.com
Quite clearly, humanitarian motivations played a major role in President Putin’s decision to commence his country’s special operation.| korybko.substack.com
Critics might claim that President Putin’s new outlook came eight years too late, but late is always better than never.| korybko.substack.com
Hindsight is 20/20 as the clichéd saying goes, ergo the importance of reviewing prior assessments of every key player’s perceptions and associated assumptions about their interests ¾ of a year after the global systemic transition unprecedentedly accelerated as a result of this proxy war.| korybko.substack.com
Those of his supporters in the Alt-Media Community who convinced themselves that the special operation won’t stop until Russian forces reach the Polish border are bound to be infuriated by this assessment, but it’s based on his own words as proven by the official Kremlin website.| korybko.substack.com
This is the first time since then that they’ve conventionally fought a military peer, albeit by proxy for now.| korybko.substack.com
These latest observations about how counterproductive the counteroffensive has been for Ukrainian-Western unity, solidarity within their respective ranks, and Ukraine’s human and military resources mean that Russia’s prior interest in a ceasefire can no longer be taken for granted.| korybko.substack.com