JAPAN ISN’T ALLOWED TO IMPLODE BEFORE US ELECTIONS, BUT NOT EVERYTHING IS UNDER CONTROL AND THE CHANCES FOR A REAL BLACK MONDAY TO SPARK ARE NOT THAT LOW| JustDario
No, I am not going to begin talking about what happened yesterday with ASML. Before we get there, we need to start from the 11th of October when this article (of course totally ignored by MSM and Social Media busy broadcasting the latest phenomenal predictions Jensen Huang was spitting out...| JustDario
3 months ago, in the article “CHEF’S TABLE: NVIDIA,” I already highlighted how Nvidia’s sophistication in cooking its books reached a remarkably high level. At that time, thanks to fresh disclosure in its report, not only did we manage to figure out the whole structure Nvidia, with the support of...| JustDario
NVIDIA’s cooking of its financial earnings has reached a level of beauty and sophistication that the company should be awarded 3 Michelin stars and be featured in an episode of the popular Netflix series Chef’s Table. Get comfortable because this episode is going to be one with many “Woah!” Singapore...| JustDario
Since last Thursday, a strange tension could be sensed on trading floors in Hong Kong and China, then on Friday, the $CNY suddenly sold off against the $USD. While the event has been greatly overlooked so far by investors, it might have been a pretty loud warning about the next...| JustDario
COREWEAVE: A FRAUD HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT| JustDario
The first time I talked about CoreWeave was more than one year ago in “IS MAGNETAR CAPITAL BLOWING AIR INTO THE NVIDIA (PONZI) SCHEME SO THEY CAN BET ON ITS IMPLOSION?” when I described how the hedge fund Magnetar Capital’s investment in CoreWeave had many similarities with the strategy they...| JustDario
THE ETHEREUM ETF IS A BIGGER DEAL THAN YOU THINK| JustDario
While global investors are busily plucking daisy petals to decide between fear and #fomo, a (very) large elephant is crying out in pain in one corner of the globe. In a surreptitious move, #Softbank quietly rescheduled the release of their Financial Results for the entire 2023 fiscal year from the…| JustDario
This is it, the point where the #BOJ cannot kick the can down the road any longer has arrived. As you know, I have written many times about the #BOJ, warning of the consequences of their unbelievably reckless actions. 🚩 $JPY CARRY TRADE – THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL TICKING TIME BOMB...| JustDario
The Bank Of Japan (#BOJ) attempted to have its cake and eat it too, again, but this time, they didn’t have the luxury to do so anymore. The #BOJ had to decide which one to save between Japan’s economy and the global #stocks bubble, as we discussed last week (article...| JustDario
SoftBank just reported its financial earnings for the quarter ended on the 30th of June, and as I am writing, its shares are trading 10% higher on the day to a fresh all-time high. 3 months ago, I wrote “SOFTBANK GOES ALL IN ON AI WITH THE LITTLE MONEY IT...| JustDario
“WE HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO RIDE STOCKS UNTIL THEY RUN”| JustDario
The text discusses concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation, challenging the notion that central banks have successfully tamed it. Recent UK inflation data for December suggests a possible upward trend, prompting questions about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting plans. Bond traders are adjusting their bets, and the author predicts a likely rise in interest rates unless a significant event disrupts the current pattern. The impending maturity of substantial debt in 2024 adds pressu...| JustDario
STRAP ON FOLKS, BOND VIGILANTES ARE NOW IN THE DRIVING SEAT!| JustDario
I do not expect many people to learn a lesson from what happened today in Hong Kong’s stock market. While the hype fades in this corner of the market, it will surely resurface in another corner. Perhaps in the US, where fraudulent trading has been running wild in the past...| JustDario
I’ve spent over a decade living in Hong Kong, regularly traveling through Mainland China—except during the Covid-19 period, for obvious reasons. While many foreigners left, I stayed, immersing myself in the region’s culture and economy. This unique vantage point gives me direct access to life in China, unfiltered, while staying...| JustDario
Things can change a lot in 9 months, particularly when you spend those 9 months trying to kneecap (metaphorically speaking) your adversary after pretending to be “besties”. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s second trip to #China is so far a total failure with little to no chance of any improvement...| JustDario
If you have a TwitterX account, don’t miss this recording! Answering questions about $NVDA| JustDario
Author: Vijay ( @sainik636 on Twitter/X) Indian Elections are always a captivating spectacle. Given that it’s a multi-party democracy, predicting the WINNER & LOSER is a challenging game. However, there’s no shortage of psephologists, both professional & amateurs, who indulge in this exercise. Since 1991, the Results have been linked...| JustDario
It’s been some time since I first rang the alarm bell about the crisis unfolding in the Commercial Real Estate sector (#CRE) in the US. Banks’ risk departments were largely ignoring this crisis, an issue I highlighted in my previous post, ”The great paradox of CRE lending: while owners are...| JustDario
In December, people were literally salivating, dreaming of the flood of liquidity six #FED rate cuts would have delivered to the market in 2024. Fast forward 3 months into 2024, the expectations now are for 2 rate cuts and falling. Was the expectation of six #FED FF rate cuts unrealistic?...| JustDario
Exactly one year ago, a parade of “experts” was making the rounds on various popular TV networks advocating for a 75 basis point emergency FED rate cut to troubleshoot the crisis in the global JPY carry trade scheme. At that time, traders in the futures market priced a 60% probability...| JustDario
Right now, the futures market is pricing only a 2.7% probability of seeing the FED delivering a 25bp rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Considering the overall economic situation, my personal view is that the FED should be tightening financial conditions further, not the opposite. However, while US inflation remains...| JustDario
HOW COME THE HIGHER SOFTBANK’S SHARE PRICE GOES, THE BIGGER THE HOLE IN ITS BOOKS?| JustDario
Daily post about finance and breaking news| JustDario
WHAT IF MICROSTRATEGY BECOMES TOO BIG TO FAIL?| JustDario
Do you remember the scene from “The Big Short” movie when Charlie and Jamie, the dynamic duo of the “bedroom hedge fund” Brownfield, stumble across Jared Vennet’s pitch in the JP Morgan lobby? If you don’t, here is the link for a quick refresher. Keith Gill, also known as @TheRoaringKitty,...| JustDario
Yesterday, I watched the opening of #US #stocks trading in literal disbelief as investors stampeded into $NYCB, sending the stock up 15% at some point. The scene reminded me of the movie “Independence Day”, one of my favorites, when you see people dancing on top of buildings right below the...| JustDario
Between the end of September and the beginning of October 2023, the #MOAB (Mother of All Bubbles) house of cards was dangerously wobbling. In a great coup de theatre, Jerome Burns managed to pull a “FED ghost pivot” 🐇 out of his magic hat, which sent everyone on a #FOMO...| JustDario
As I write, NVIDIA is up 8.56% in After Hours trading after releasing their “monster” Q4-23 results. Compared to the Q3-23 report, there isn’t much change in all the red flags 🚩 I highlighted before [JustDario], but while I was comparing the two, my eye caught something strange. Before I...| JustDario
Yesterday, we were discussing the signs of “Panic behind closed doors” (TwitterX), today we have 100% certainty that something big enough to justify extreme actions from the US Government and US Regulatory Agencies broke somewhere. How else we can justify the SEC is still holding back the “Fails To Deliver...| JustDario
There are times when I believe that if there wasn’t a massive cultural and language barrier between #China and the major Western countries, in particular with the #US (while #Germany would love to deal more with #China commercially if they still had the option to do so), both parts of...| JustDario
As you know, I am currently in mainland #China, so please forgive me if I am going to be extra careful about anything I write until next week. Yesterday, #China #stocks suddenly started to free fall in what could have turned into a 1987 style crash if it wasn’t for...| JustDario
Last week, the #HongKong HSI index was up 5.5% despite only having 3 trading days due to the Chinese New Year holidays. #China index futures were also up ~3% in the same timeframe. Trading is about to resume in mainland #China along with all the country’s business activity after the...| JustDario
The USD dollar keeps strengthening and currently, the $DXY index is trading again above 105 or up ~0.77% in the past 5 days. What about the $USD / $JPY exchange rate? It’s only up ~0.14% while, instead, it should already be trading above 152, also considering the move in US...| JustDario
Crossing a specific FX level isn’t usually a “big deal”. What would be the difference for a country between settling payments at 151.95 or 152.05? Intuitively, it’s quite small. However, there are 2 specific markets where a “round number” can be a very big deal: derivatives and margin lending. Why?...| JustDario
What a clown show the US market has become. Please forgive me, but I cannot find any better words to describe it. Before the US #CPI came out, I wrote these words: “Once data is out and is within the range of expectations (even if “hot”), algorithms start dumping the...| JustDario
The #Nikkei just broke 40,000 and yet no one in #Japan is celebrating, literally speaking. Why? The purchasing power of $JPY literally fell through the floor in the past 30 years as a result of endless (and reckless) nonstop money printing. As I wrote almost 5 months ago on X:...| JustDario
Despite being geographically very distant from each other, South Korea and Germany are, in reality, more similar economically speaking than everyone thinks. Both countries appear “very safe” considering the very low public debt-to-GDP ratio they both showcase: 46% for South Korea and 62% for Germany. What if we add private...| JustDario
Yesterday, I posed this question: “WHAT IF NVIDIA SIMPLY TAGGED ALONG WITH A MICROSOFT AZURE SCAM PLAYBOOK?”. Twenty-four hours later, the company themselves replied to the question (I believe involuntarily), and the answer was “YES”. Please take a look at the part I highlighted from the #NVIDIA CFO commentary related...| JustDario
HOW THE UBS TITANIC KEEPS FLOATING DESPITE THE HOLE IN ITS HULL| JustDario
PLAYING WITH FIRE: TRUMP DANGEROUS PUSH FOR LOWER INTEREST RATES| JustDario
Since last week, while the market was distracted by the geopolitical slapping contest between Israel and Iran, both large banks (#KBE) and regional banks (#KRE) lost 5%, outpacing the S&P500 by more than 2%. JP Morgan, surprisingly, is leading the tumble, down almost 8% since releasing its Q1-24 results. Bank...| JustDario
It’s no mystery anymore. What matters to low-popularity politicians in charge of government and seeking reelection is a #bullish #stockmarket until after the election date. From #Japan to the #US, from the #UK to #Germany, what do all of them have in common? The government in charge is dealing with...| JustDario
In about 24 hours, the “Bank Term Funding Programme”, the infamous #BTFP, will be history. There should not have been any surprise about this if it wasn’t for the fact the banking situation today is much worse than it was one year ago when the #BTFP was launched. How dire...| JustDario
To anyone who lives in the real world, it has always been clear that #inflation wasn’t truly cooling down as the official (politically adjusted) CPI data pretended to portray (TwitterX). If you want to have a live snapshot of the distorted reality “economists” see from the high rise ivory towers...| JustDario
During the last session, investors piled into financial #stocks with $XLF up 1.26%, and several major banks had a good green day ahead of the next #FOMC. Since October, $XLF is up 24% despite banks’ books starting to have more holes than Emmental cheese 🧀 (and some even starting to...| JustDario
There is no day now when we do not hear from either Lutnick, Bessent, or Trump himself a verbal broadside towards the Federal Reserve, where, let’s not forget, Donald Trump himself nominated the chairman. Why so much beef against Jerome “Burns” Powell? According to them, the FED should be cutting...| JustDario
It’s summer, and many traders are already enjoying their holidays and stock portfolio gains, which are growing every passing day, regardless of the circumstances. No matter that the underlying economies are falling more and more into a dark hole, a larger number of people are struggling to make ends meet,...| JustDario
This year alone, the total CAPEX on AI infrastructure from Big Tech companies is expected to reach 330 billion $, with Microsoft accounting for more than one-third of it, as per the latest results and projections. Where is all this money going to be spent? To buy chips and build...| JustDario
Deutsche Bank just reported earnings for its Q2-25 and, of course, everything is awesome! Needless to say, Wall Street expectations have been beaten across the board. As I write, the stock is trading 6% higher on the day. As usual, everyone read the press release, and no one took the...| JustDario
UBS just delivered another earnings expectations beat, what a surprise right? If it wasn’t for the Swiss regulator, who is aware of the bank’s real condition and doesn’t back off from asking UBS bank management to significantly increase their capital to prepare for potential significant losses (“Switzerland’s Finance Sheriff Takes...| JustDario
Bank of America (BAC) just released its Q1 2025 earnings, and if you thought past balance sheet shenanigans were wild, you’re in for another ride. Back in November 2024, in HOW BANK OF AMERICA IS HIDING ITS MOUNTING PROBLEMS BEHIND A MOUNTAIN OF REPURCHASE AGREEMENTS, we discussed how BAC heavily...| JustDario
IS SOFTBANK TRYING TO SQUEEZE ARM INTO MAJOR INDEXES TO FORCE PASSIVE INVESTING BIDS AND LIQUIDATE THE STOCK WITHOUT CRASHING IT?| JustDario
THE STORY OF CREDIT SUISSE, ARCHEGOS, AND A SWAP THAT “SCREAMS” GME| JustDario
Last Friday, #ARM closed the day at $87.19, down by 16.90% in one session. The stock overall lost 31.10% last week or $40bn in market cap. Why is this a big deal? Because #Softbank holds ~90% of #ARM and has been manipulating this stock on the upside since an IPO...| JustDario
THE DARK CORNERS OF NVIDIA 10-Q REVEAL THE EXTENT OF THE NVIDIA FRAUD| JustDario
FOR ANOTHER QUARTER, BANKS WILL BE ALLOWED TO PRETEND EVERYTHING IS AWESOME| JustDario
Q2-2025 earnings season for banks officially started with, what a surprise, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all beating Wall Street analysts’ expectations and once again bagging fat profits. Traders, though, aren’t so impressed so far with JPM and Citi trading flat while WFC is down 6% on the day... The post FOR ANOTHER QUARTER, BANKS WILL BE ALLOWED TO PRETEND EVERYTHING IS AWESOME appeared first on JustDario.| JustDario
The Turkish Lesson Turkey’s economic collapse didn’t happen by accident—it was the result of deliberate policy choices that ignored economic fundamentals in favor of political doctrine. For years, President Erdoğan pursued a radical economic experiment that became known as “Erdoganomics”. This strategy was built on the belief that high interest... The post HOW TURKEY ENGINEERED ITS OWN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND WHY JAPAN AND UK ARE FOLLOWING ON THE SAME FOOTSTEPS appeared first on Just...| JustDario
Almost 10 months ago, I wrote the article “MOUNTING SIGNS OF LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS AMONG LARGE US AND UK BANKS” to highlight several elements pointing toward a buildup of liquidity problems in the banking sector. Three elements were particularly noteworthy at the time: Last week, something very interesting happened again: banks...| JustDario
What are the differences between #Bitcoin and #Gold? If you put aside any personal views and stick with their pure characteristics, the two are not truly different from a monetary perspective: 1 – Both have limited supply, but at the same time, they can be divided into very minuscule units....| JustDario
First of all, I would like to praise The Information for its excellent work in doing proper journalism, something that nowadays is more unique than rare, sadly. Let’s start with the explosive article just published and that, of course, barely caught the attention of mainstream media that are being very...| JustDario
NVIDIA convinced everyone that we are just at the beginning of the #AI revolution and its GPUs will sell like hot cakes. Yes, we are at the beginning of the #AI revolution. However, NVIDIA isn’t going to be part of it as much as they (desperately) want people to believe,...| JustDario
TARIFF WARS: THE RETURN OF THE DONALD JEDI| JustDario
The Federal Reserve just released the results of its 2025 round of stress testing on 22 major US banks, and personally, I have never come across something more ridiculous and hypocritical. Let’s start with the fact that the FED itself admits how it found it appropriate to make this year’s...| JustDario
More than 2 months ago in “TARIFF WARS: A NEW HOPE” and “TARIFF WARS: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK” I correctly made sense of the overall tariffs mess at the time, but I made a mistake too: I overestimated President Trump’s commitment to do the right thing in the interest of...| JustDario
On the 29th of April, something very special happened, yet many did not grasp the importance of the event. Even if that day was a public holiday in Japan, hence there was no real liquidity in the US Treasuries (both spot and related derivatives) market overnight hours as usual, the...| JustDario
It is no mystery that U.S. companies that produce goods in other countries, like China, and sell them in the U.S., have successfully implemented many strategies over the years to maximize profits while minimizing taxation on their operations, especially profit tax. One common strategy is transfer pricing, which involves setting...| JustDario
CRYPTO PUMP AND DUMPS: A GUIDE ON HOW TO RECOGNIZE AND AVOID THEM| JustDario
Imagine a world where people only spend what they earn or where companies borrow to build new factories and use the additional revenues generated to repay the debt. Imagine a world where you have to plan and save enough money in advance to make an expensive purchase or where governments...| JustDario
I always pay attention to the reactions and comments on my posts and articles since no one is perfect, there is always room for improvement, and from time to time I make mistakes myself that I amend when brought to my attention. However, in the past couple of days, I...| JustDario
I don’t expect many traders to truly reflect on the pitfalls of technical analysis, even after countless trading mistakes have already been made. While its value might seem obvious to anyone dazzled by the endless price charts and patterns, those who fall victim to its traps often don’t realize what’s...| JustDario
More than one year ago in the article “IS THIS HOW BANKS ARE CONCEALING THEIR LOSSES ON SILVER SHORT POSITIONS?” I first tried to bring attention to several anomalies happening in the Silver market that could only be explained by active price manipulation activities on LBMA and COMEX contracts. Why...| JustDario
The next BOJ policy rate decision is approaching and, of course, much speculation surrounds it. I will not join the crowd because regardless of what happens next, it won’t change Japan’s fate in the medium to long term, as I have already discussed in these articles: The BOJ decision will...| JustDario
As I write, NVIDIA is the most valuable company in the world while a key component of its supply chain (to not always use the words “Ponzi scheme”) is on the verge of being delisted from the NASDAQ only a few months after being included in the S&P500 on March...| JustDario
Two months ago, in FINANCIAL MARKETS REACHED A “SINGULARITY” NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH, I tried to highlight how legacy economic theories—built on assumptions that never fully materialized decades ago—are now ineffective in today’s economic context. In that article, I emphasized five key points: Today, @thesiriusreport posted one of...| JustDario
Something special happened today, or to be precise, did not happen. As Israel started its new military campaign against Iran, all risk assets in financial markets started to dive, from stock futures to crypto. Understandably, oil prices started to spike in what can potentially become a “VAR shock” event if...| JustDario
Altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), any digital assets besides Bitcoin, significantly outperform Bitcoin in price appreciation and trading volume. This phase is characterized by a surge in capital flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins, leading to rapid, often exponential, gains across a...| JustDario
“Why are central banks cutting rates while yields are going up? How is this possible?” This is the question many people are asking themselves at the moment. Surprisingly, those experiencing the highest degree of confusion and bewilderment appear to be institutional investors rather than retail investors. The reason is that...| JustDario
Finally, here we are with only one day left until the end of the most tragicomic US Presidential campaign ever. So far, investors do not seem too concerned about it, considering the shape of the VIX curve. Yes, some have put some hedging in place, but as you can see,...| JustDario
The past week has been incredibly interesting, to say the least. For the first time since the 2020 COVID crisis, we saw the FED Standing Repo Facility being tapped for a significant size by at least one bank (IF “EVERYTHING IS AWESOME” WHY THERE IS AT LEAST ONE LARGE BANK...| JustDario
WHAT CAN SAVE #STOCKS FROM A HISTORICAL IMPLOSION ONCE AGAIN?| JustDario
BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been by far the most successful ETF launch in the firm’s history and with ~22.5 bn USD of AUM already is set to surpass the established iShares IAU Gold ETF (~31bn$ AUM) in the near future. However, why does a firm that manages ~10.6...| JustDario
This last week started with three clowns announcing a $500B “Stargate” project that they not only lacked funding for, but that structurally made no sense whatsoever. It ended with half of Silicon Valley in panic mode after suddenly waking up from their comfortable slumber to discover that their DeepSeek nightmare...| JustDario
As per the most recent estimates, Google Search accounts for ~90% of all online searches worldwide and ~27.7% of total digital advertising revenues, followed closely in second place by Meta with ~26.8%. The global advertising revenue market surpassed 1 trillion USD for the first time in 2024 (Global ad revenue...| JustDario
At the beginning of the year, something very interesting happened around SMCI that no one, including myself, paid attention to: despite the stock hitting an all-time high of $118.81 (post-split) on March 13th and falling hard to $75 in just a month, Wall Street analysts kept increasing their target prices...| JustDario
Have you noticed how more and more people are distancing themselves from S(c)am Altman? Microsoft’s CEO, who according to his own words “bet the farm on OpenAI”, is the latest high-profile figure showing signs of frustration towards OpenAI’s CEO, despite his best efforts to hide them. Who can blame him?...| JustDario
Everyone is familiar with the very large black bulky bag carried around by a U.S. military serviceman who isn’t more than a few steps away from the U.S. president at any time. Soon, a new red button will be added to the “Football”. Nuclear weapons are a deterrent meant not...| JustDario
Imagine a whole financial system (banks, insurances, and pension funds) that for decades never second-guessed the solvency and liquidity of its own country’s government bonds because no matter what, its central bank was always ready to show a bid in case there were no takers in the market. What I...| JustDario
Back in August last year I wrote the article “IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS” to deliver the following warnings: “To all those who advocate rate cuts because those will benefit the economy, I dare to ask where exactly the economy will...| JustDario
While global investors are busily plucking daisy petals to decide between fear and #fomo, a (very) large elephant is crying out in pain in one corner of the globe. In a surreptitious move, #Softbank quietly rescheduled the release of their Financial Results for the entire 2023 fiscal year from the...| JustDario
YES – THEY ARE IN COMPLETE PANIC| JustDario
IF ARCHEGOS BUSTED CREDIT SUISSE, WHICH BANK WILL A SOFTBANK IMPLOSION SINK?| JustDario
The other day, I was going through some old notes of mine, and I came across one I took about the 1MDB scandal. This is what I wrote in my notebook: “The US Government made it clear that, even if it occurred outside its borders, it has the right to...| JustDario
The text discusses concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation, challenging the notion that central banks have successfully tamed it. Recent UK inflation data for December suggests a possible upward trend, prompting questions about the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting plans. Bond traders are adjusting their bets, and the author predicts a likely rise in interest rates unless a significant event disrupts the current pattern. The impending maturity of substantial debt in 2024 adds pressure...| JustDario
CHINA STOCKS – IS THE BOTTOM IN?| JustDario
At the European Central Bank (#ECB), they are so adamant about cutting rates lately that they are barely sparing a single day to remind markets about it (The time is ripe to cut interest rates next week, European Central Bank’s Rehn says). But, why such a rush when, even according...| JustDario
Back in September last year in “IS THIS BLACKROCK’S MASTER PLAN FOR BITCOIN?” I described how the investment powerhouse BlackRock was laying the ground to make Bitcoin the golden goose and growth engine for its operations in the near future, considering how mature all other asset classes within the manager’s...| JustDario
