The bond market doesn't believe in AGI - by Dave Friedman
If superintelligence were imminent, interest rates would be much higher| davefriedman.substack.com
If superintelligence were imminent, interest rates would be much higher| davefriedman.substack.com
What do finance bros in Chicago and New York have to do with the future of AI compute?| davefriedman.substack.com
Compute is a commodity and its financialization will solve many problems| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
Financing AI compute isn't a product roadmap. It's a market design problem, solved by futures, contracts, and credit plumbing| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
The AI buildout requires trillions in capital and its financialization is the way to fund it| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
What happens to entertainment when AI-generated characters are infinitely replicable at near-zero marginal cost?| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
CoreWeave is signing impressive deals with hyperscalers; whether that revenue flows through to shareholders or landlords remains an open question| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
Agent runtimes as the missing revenue engine for trillion-dollar data center capex| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
Value accrues to those who control scarce inputs; if compute is abundant how do hyperscalers capture value?| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
What is the useful life of a GPU and why does that matter?| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
VCs discover PE investors' favorite playbook and it still won't work| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
How cheaper inference expands demand and drives both local and hyperscale growth| davefriedman.substack.com
A semi-daily report about the practical, real-world applications of AI, with a dash of speculation. Click to read Buy the Rumor; Sell the News, by Dave Friedman, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.| davefriedman.substack.com
U.S. policy and derivatives trading expertise are converging to financialize GPU compute| davefriedman.substack.com
The future of inference is bifurcation: cheap edge hustle at one pole, sovereign-scale sanctuaries at the other| davefriedman.substack.com
Who gets to regulate AI?| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
There are strategic and political rationales at play| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
Startups can't compete with them on distribution, access to capital markets, or execution| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
Tim Cook won't be fired just because you think Apple Intelligence sucks| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
The AI boom has made data centers the steel mills of the 21st century. Yet Equinix's neutrality risks trapping it in REIT-speed growth while inference flows elsewhere| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
The risks are in financing expectations, utilization rates, and arms-race logic, not in a mismatch between capex and revenue| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
Why the financialization of AI compute is following the same path as oil, power, and LNG| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
The case for financializing compute runs straight into benchmarks, refresh cycles, and cartel dynamics that could kill the market before it begins| Buy the Rumor; Sell the News
Where inference occurs in the future will tell us a lot about whether GPU futures make sense| davefriedman.substack.com
Reconciling the case for GPU futures with the centrifugal pull of edge inference| davefriedman.substack.com
Why 2026 probably brings digestion and remix, not collapse, and what that means for data center buildouts| davefriedman.substack.com
A lot of people don't understand what elite management consultancies actually do| davefriedman.substack.com
Jevons paradox meets Sand Hill Road| davefriedman.substack.com
AI is a capital-hungry industrial revolution that eats margins| davefriedman.substack.com
ERCOT’s latest risk models show power no longer follows weather or gas. It follows GPUs. Until the grid starts pushing back.| davefriedman.substack.com
The models eat (almost) everything that touches them| davefriedman.substack.com
