AI can't replace polling
The use of AI models to mimic human respondents betrays the public, and provides inaccurate answers to key questions| Strength In Numbers
The use of AI models to mimic human respondents betrays the public, and provides inaccurate answers to key questions| Strength In Numbers
Also this week: Demographic math favors Mamdani in New York; Election denier appointed head of election integrity at Homeland Security; Forecasting population and Electoral Vote change; + more| Strength In Numbers
Crime is the latest issue where the president has moved too far to the right relative to the public's ideal policy| Strength In Numbers
Party registration statistics show there are more Democrats in Texas than Republicans... or do they?| Strength In Numbers
Is affordability the Democratic Party's secret weapon in 2026?| Strength In Numbers
Results from the August Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll| Strength In Numbers
Also this week: Voters oppose Trump's federalized police crackdowns; Musk backs off his third-party threats; Americans worry about democracy; and more| Strength In Numbers
I guesstimate how new congressional maps in TX and CA, plus likely gerrymanders in several other states, will impact Democrats in the 2026 midterms| www.gelliottmorris.com
Further thoughts and data on the declining electoral benefit to ideological moderation.| Strength In Numbers
Plus: Sherrod Brown jumps into the Ohio Senate race; interviews with working-class voters; the BLS takeover; and more.| Strength In Numbers
The president’s approval rating on prices and the economy is approaching Joe Biden’s low point during peak inflation| Strength In Numbers
In 2024, moderate candidates for the U.S. House barely outperformed the average partisan| Strength In Numbers
Announcing our new measure of candidate quality, the Wins Above Replacement Probability (WARP)| www.gelliottmorris.com
This week in political data: When life gives you lemons? Plus: Latinos por Trump es no más, UMass on Trump regret, and about that Epstein polling.| Strength In Numbers
According to analysis of issue approval data in Strength In Numbers/Verasight polls| www.gelliottmorris.com
By firing non-partisan government statisticians and ordering the GOP to rig congressional maps, Trump makes loyalty his essential command| Strength In Numbers
This week in political data: Thermostat go click-click-click. Plus: Virginia election forecast; more on party favorability data; and a new way to poll vote intention?| www.gelliottmorris.com
How our new generic ballot average works, and what a 2-3 point Dem. win would look like in Congress| Strength In Numbers
That, and other topics from the July 2025 Strength In Numbers reader Q&A| www.gelliottmorris.com
The party has a near-historically low favorability rating. This is mostly due to disaffection on the left, where voters still say they'll vote Democratic for the midterms| www.gelliottmorris.com
This week in political data: Gallup's newsy poll; New Pew benchmark data; Senate ratings; Manufacturing prices increase; and AI disrupting news traffic| www.gelliottmorris.com
Results from the July Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll| www.gelliottmorris.com
This week in political data: Epstein and Trump, NPR, and the missing 2020 Biden voters. + for the first time in his second term, Trump has a lower approval rating on deportations than on the economy.| www.gelliottmorris.com
The news is all about tariffs, deportations, and Trump's Epstein files shenanigans. And he's massively underwater on all three.| www.gelliottmorris.com
Crunching the numbers on the potential coalition for an anti-spending, anti-Trump, anti-Democrats, anti-Republicans political party... wait what?| www.gelliottmorris.com
Are right-wing pollsters biasing Trump approval averages? Should America switch to ranked-choice voting? And what's up with the Democratic Party brand?| www.gelliottmorris.com
More: 60% see ethics/corruption problems in Trump administration, and the "Abundance Agenda" is popular (except zoning reform)| www.gelliottmorris.com
The Republican budget bill, which now heads to Trump's desk, will be the most unpopular law in at least 30 years| www.gelliottmorris.com
