Global FDI is uncoupling from China
FDI into China is on a declining trend, in contrast to FDI to the rest of EM| Robin J Brooks
FDI into China is on a declining trend, in contrast to FDI to the rest of EM| Robin J Brooks
More than 3 years after the Ukraine invasion, EU transshipments to Russia are ongoing| Robin J Brooks
Underlying inflation is heating up and this isn't about tariffs| Robin J Brooks
Persistent TARGET2 balances reflect artificially low periphery yields due to the ECB| Robin J Brooks
G10 economies are becoming more EM-like, which explains the rush for safe havens| Robin J Brooks
The Dollar is stable as gold keeps rallying - markets seek refuge from fiat currencies| Robin J Brooks
The US yesterday offered to help support the Peso, but that's the wrong medicine| Robin J Brooks
The US yield curve has steepened, but it's still much too flat given all the uncertainty| Robin J Brooks
Tariffs are just the latest shock that US consumers seem to be shrugging off| Robin J Brooks
China is Putin's biggest enabler, as the huge rise in China's exports to Russia shows| Robin J Brooks
The US for a long time got lucky managing growing deficits, but that luck has run out| Robin J Brooks
Powell yesterday did not give an unambiguously dovish signal and the Dollar bounced| Robin J Brooks
The Dollar fell sharply yesterday as markets positioned for a 50 basis point cut| Robin J Brooks
German government bond yields used to fall in crisis times - but now they're rising| Robin J Brooks
Japan's massive debt burden is increasingly becoming a problem| Robin J Brooks
The Peso has fallen sharply in the past week, but it's still at least 20 percent overvalued| robinjbrooks.substack.com
The single biggest driver of markets this year is the fact that China hasn't devalued| robinjbrooks.substack.com
China's has begun to aggressively transship goods to the US via third countries| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Monetary policy credibility can be easily lost, but is very hard and costly to regain| robinjbrooks.substack.com
The Dollar has ignored mounting pressure on the Fed and is up 2 percent this month| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Central bank bond purchase programs inevitably have political fallout| robinjbrooks.substack.com
After many years in which they were nowhere to be found, now they're everywhere| Robin J Brooks
Falling short-term rates are masking a very scary global rise in long-term yields| Robin J Brooks
As US recession fears mount, short-term yields are falling, but not long-term ones| Robin J Brooks
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made global markets more cautious about China| Robin J Brooks
Past ECB actions to cap government bond yields have enabled reckless fiscal policy| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Foreigners pulled only modest amounts of capital out of the US after "Liberation Day"| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Markets are having a big debate over how much further to drive down the Dollar| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Tariffs have risen substantially, yet high-frequency indicators of US growth look solid| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Markets price aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, which may reflect political pressure| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Recession risk is muted despite Friday's large downward revisions to payrolls| robinjbrooks.substack.com
US sanctions are massively effective, but joint EU and UK sanctions also pack a punch| robinjbrooks.substack.com
After small outflows in April, foreign investors returned in record numbers in May| robinjbrooks.substack.com
US tariffs are diverting a flood of Chinese goods to countries all around the world| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Markets - and China - are very real constraints on the second Trump presidency| robinjbrooks.substack.com
US tariffs are an inflationary impulse for the US, but a deflationary one everywhere else| robinjbrooks.substack.com
The vast majority of Western sanctions on Russian oil tankers only kicked in this year| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Trump is cracking down on China's use of third countries as transshipment hubs| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Leaning on your central bank - as Turkey shows - can end in economic disaster| robinjbrooks.substack.com
It's not as weak as the headline numbers suggest...| robinjbrooks.substack.com
China is likely circumventing US tariffs by exporting to the US via third countries| robinjbrooks.substack.com
By not devaluing in response to US tariffs, China allows itself to fall into deflation| robinjbrooks.substack.com
Truth versus myth in the ongoing depreciation of the US Dollar| robinjbrooks.substack.com
The rise in US inflation is coming, several factors are just temporarily delaying it| robinjbrooks.substack.com
