There’s not a day that goes by when there isn’t another breathless story about AI and the threat China poses in dominating this revolutionary breakthrough. Call me dense, but I must confess to having a hard time figuring out why the world is so aghast over China’s apparent prowess as America’s peer competitor in artificial […]| Author Stephen Roach
This final installment of “Imagining Engagement” is intended to be a reality check. I started out focusing on what an ideal US-China re-engagement might look like (Part I: Defining the Goal). That was followed by an assessment of benefits, what could be gained by a shift from conflict escalation to conflict resolution (Part II: Making the Case for ‘Why’). In what follows, I take up what could well be the toughest aspect of this challenge — moving from the abstract to the achievable.| Author Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach, China expert, macro thought leader, author of Accidental Conflict and other books| stephenroachauthor.com
Bilateral engagement is a moving target. That’s especially the case when it comes to the United States and China, where conflict escalation has taken on a life of its own in the past seven years. Last week, I underscored five parameters of an ideal engagement: aspirational goals, common ground, a mutual policy agenda, people-to-people exchange, […]| Author Stephen Roach
There is literally no constituency in the United States currently in favor of Sino-American engagement. That is most assuredly the case in the US Congress, where anti-China sentiment enjoys unanimous bipartisan support. It is also the case in established US foreign policy circles; a 2018 Foreign Affairs article by Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner, “The […]| Author Stephen Roach
From last month in Geneva to this week in London, US and Chinese dealmakers continue to struggle in their search for a trade deal. Meanwhile, a US Federal Appeals Court has just extended the stay of an earlier legal challenge to Trump’s global tariffs. The net result of these two developments is that it is still very much “game on” for the Trump Administration and its trade war.| Author Stephen Roach
Does a US President have the authority to address a national economic emergency? The simple answer, of course, is yes. There is no higher calling for a president than to protect the nation. But the question is actually trickier than it seems. There is good reason to believe that the simple answer may not be the best answer. This very question was raised about Donald Trump’s tariff strategy in a May 28 ruling by the US Court of International Trade (USCIT), now under appeal. It is hardl...| Author Stephen Roach
It didn’t take long. A little more than an hour after I hit the send button on yesterday’s post, the US Federal Court of Appeals put a temporary stay on the stunning May 28 ruling of the Court of International Trade (CIT) that had challenged the constitutional legality of Trump’s core reciprocal tariff plan. How […]| Author Stephen Roach
The twin deficits are back. As was the case in the 1980s, a powerful interplay is at work between ever widening US budget and trade deficits. But unlike the 1980s, the US judicial system has weighed in. A unanimous ruling by the US Court of International Trade has just struck down a large swath of […]| Author Stephen Roach
There is an inherent flaw in US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. The combination of his global tariff and China strategy poses great danger. It is likely to have a destabilizing impact on the US and Chinese economies, with worrisome collateral damage on the world at large. Of course, it is next to impossible to […]| Author Stephen Roach
The MAGA crowd likes to call it “strategic uncertainty” — implying that there is a grand plan to the chaos of Trump 2.0. Economists are more agnostic, holding the view that uncertainty is the enemy of decision making, especially key elements of business decision making like capital spending and hiring. This is a critical distinction that […]| Author Stephen Roach
I’ve got to give Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-Wisconsin) credit for one thing: As Chairman of the new House Select Committee on China (actually the CCP, to be technically correct), he has made more effective use of the bully pulpit than anyone in Washington has for a long, long time. Despite the surprising recent announcement of his impending resignation from Congress, Gallagher has achieved instant notoriety. It’s all proudly displayed on the Committee’s slick Amazon-like website, or ...| Author Stephen Roach