Michael Langemeier, Michael Boehlje, and Joana Colussi - Midwest crop producers have experienced a significant downturn in prices since late 2023, resulting in a drop in net returns in 2024. Farms with low profitability and high solvency levels are typically financially stressed. This article used the operating profit margin ratio and the debt-to-asset ratio to create a measure of financial stress. Specifically, farms with a negative operating profit margin ratio and a debt-to-asset ratio abo...| farmdoc daily
This series reaches its conclusion with the most problematic change to farm policy in the Reconciliation Farm Bill. That unfortunate distinction belongs to the expanded payment limit loophole for qualified…| farmdoc daily
Since 1980, the world excluding China, South America, and US (ROW) has produced fewer grains and oilseeds than it has consumed. Its production deficit has grown when measured in metric tons but declined as a share of domestic consumption. ROW’s production deficit relative to domestic consumption explains more of the year-to-year variation in the US composite grain and oilseed price than does the combined China - South America production surplus/deficit relative to domestic consumption.| farmdoc daily
Dale Lattz, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Carl Zulauf - Machinery cost estimates for 2025 have been released and are available in the Management section on the farmdoc website. Machinery costs are updated every two years, with the last update occurring in 2023. As is usual, estimated machinery costs have increased, with most increases in the 1% to 14% range. The increases from 2023 to 2025 are less than the increases estimated between 2021 and 2023, when many costs increased by as much as...| farmdoc daily
A recent survey pertaining to farm goals finds that only about 50% of the sample of farms are expected to grow in the next 5 years. Of the remaining 50%, 40% expect to remain the same size and 10% expect to reduce the size of their farm. Farms that had a goal to reduce debt over time expected to grow at a slower pace than other farms. Farm growth was positively related to producer sentiment, adding a family member to the operation, a strong balance sheet, and the adoption of new practices.| farmdoc daily
The number two position in the top five most problematic changes to farm policy belongs to the third and final entry for crop insurance. That fact alone raises concerns and the most concerning change to crop insurance in the Reconciliation Farm Bill are the increased coverage levels and premium subsidies for the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) crop insurance policies. CBO projected an additional $1.4 billion in spending for these changes.| farmdoc daily
Since 1980, US exports of grains and oilseeds have grown, but at a slower rate than US domestic consumption, resulting in a declining relative role of exports in the US grain-oilseed sector. The decline reflects many factors, including higher per capita income, which has increased consumption of animal protein, and the longstanding US goal of energy self-sufficiency. It is also consistent with US domestic demand being a more certain demand expansion path than exports.| farmdoc daily
Recent projections for the 2026 crop year suggest a fourth consecutive year of negative farmer returns to corn-soybean rotations in Illinois on cash rented farmland. The current return for owned and cash rented farmland is the same. Farmland ownership has also provided capital returns through increased farmland values. Low farmer returns from cash rent farmland relative to land prices make it difficult for farmers to use rented farmland to build capital to support a farmland purchase.| farmdoc daily
This article examines how U.S. soybean processing has evolved over 60 years, finding that oil extraction rates have increased from 17.9% to 19.8% while waste rates declined. There is suggestive evidence that the renewable diesel boom since 2020 may have accelerated this trend toward higher oil yields, allowing the industry to partially respond to increased biofuel demand.| farmdoc daily
Since 1980, South America’s increasing excess of its production over its consumption of grains and oilseeds has almost completely offset China’s growing excess of its consumption over its production of…| farmdoc daily
The farmdoc daily website offers research-based analysis for farmers, educators, journalists, traders, market analysts, and policy-makers around the globe. The overall goal of the farmdoc project - to provide U.S. Corn Belt crop and livestock producers with constant access to integrated information and expertise to better manage their farm businesses.| farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, and Jonathan Coppess - Nick Paulson - Tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China have the potential to increase the prices paid by consumers and products for goods, services, and inputs from those major US trading partners. Fertilizers are such an input for US farmers. Price increases would likely be greatest for potassium (K) given the US reliance on imports, in particular imports from Canada. Impacts would likely be smaller for nitrogen (N) ...| farmdoc daily