Bradley Zwilling - Based on Illinois FBFM records, average farm operator returns for labor and management on 2,009 Illinois farms were lower for all geographic areas in the state in 2024 compared to 2023 and below the average for the last five years. Even with higher yields and lower costs, lower grain prices were the main reasons for the lower incomes. Livestock farmers experienced higher returns due to lower feed prices and higher prices for livestock and livestock products.| farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Brad Zwilling, and Carl Zulauf - Today’s farmdoc daily article highlights our first release of 2026 crop budgets for Illinois. Despite significant increases in expected Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments due to passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), negative average returns are expected to continue for the fourth straight crop year for producers using corn and soybean rotations on cash rented farmland across all ...| farmdoc daily
The USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report was a bit of a surprise. While many analysts expected some herd expansion, as the prior June report implied greater slaughter numbers than observed since, this report’s downward revisions of June 1 inventories by nearly 2% appear to be the alternative explanation. As such, the September 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs, at 74.5 million head, is up 1.02% from revised estimates for last quarter but down 1.35% from last year.| farmdoc daily
Our analysis of the distribution of the debt-to-asset ratios reveals that most grain farms in Illinois have maintained ratios in the strong category (below 30%) over the past two decades. However, the recent sharp rise in interest expense per tillable acre, especially for the 25% of farms with the highest debt servicing costs, signals an increase in financial strain.| farmdoc daily
Maybe history can provide handrails in turbulent, difficult times. For many farmers, this harvest season threatens such times. Some of the crops being combined in fields lack the market demand expected at planting because the Trump Administration’s tariff policies and trade conflicts have damaged commodity exports. Unfortunately, the only response at the ready in national conversations appears to be the siren’s call for additional payments to farmers.| farmdoc daily
From the Reconciliation Farm Bill to drastic changes in spending and priorities at USDA in the second Trump Administration, American food and agricultural policy is experiencing an unusual amount of turbulence and upheaval. In this post, we explore changes in public perceptions on USDA spending priorities using results from the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey (GFAPS) from both May 2022 and August 2025, evaluating how recent policy changes compare to public preferences.| farmdoc daily
The Margin Coverage Option (MCO) is a new area-based crop insurance endorsement. In Illinois, corn and soybeans are eligible for MCO coverage. The sales closing date for MCO coverage for the 2026 crop year is September 30th 2025 and is approaching quickly. This article provides some perspective on MCO by comparing it to the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO).| farmdoc daily
The U.S. soybean harvest began in September without any orders from the world’s largest buyer: China. American producers are harvesting a crop the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates at…| farmdoc daily
Bradley Zwilling - The financial results on all Illinois farms show that on average 2024 was a poorer financial year due to lower incomes. Grain farms had their highest income ever in 2021 and 2022, leading to build ups of cash and other assets. However, after two years of low incomes on grain farms, working cash has decreased almost 40% on the average farm to 2020 levels. With projected continued lower incomes for the rest of 2025 and 2026, farmers will need to find ways to reduce costs whil...| farmdoc daily
Jason Franken and Joe Janzen - USDA NASS recently increased 2025 corn planted acreage estimate to 97.3 million acres. Analysis of acreage enrolled in USDA FSA farm programs suggests this may be conservative, with FSA data implying even higher corn acreage around 98.1 million acres. Big corn acres will likely limit the potential for higher corn prices in the coming marketing year.| farmdoc daily
The Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle yesterday, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%. The Fed’s decision to cut rates reflects a cautious pivot toward supporting employment amid a softening labor market, even as inflation remains above target. It is uncertain how inflation will trend for the remainder of the year under this lower rate environment. On top of this, the effects of tariffs might also become more evident in prices over...| farmdoc daily
In the last year, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) campaign has brought a new public interest and scrutiny of food and agricultural policy. We find only small changes in commodity support from May 2022 to August 2025, in particular, slight increases in support for livestock. Additionally, we find little evidence that respondents who view MAHA as positive, negative, or who were unaware of MAHA support commodity groups differently.| farmdoc daily
For the 2026 crop year, a new crop insurance endorsement called Margin Coverage Option (MCO) is available. MCO is an area-based product protecting against operating margin declines driven by falling output prices, rising input costs, or both. In Illinois, corn and soybeans are eligible crops to purchase MCO. The sales closing date for MCO coverage for the 2026 crop year is Sept. 30 2025. This article provides an overview of this new policy and discusses considerations in assessing its purchase.| farmdoc daily
Joe Janzen - Corn and soybean futures reversed initial negative reactions to September 12's bearish USDA report, which lowered yields by less than expected and increased acreage estimates. Despite some fundamentally bearish data, prices ended up for the day. Markets appear skeptical of USDA yield estimates given recent dry weather, leading to an uneven price reaction to the most recent report.| farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Henrique Monaco, and Carl Zulauf - Farmers will begin to consider management decisions for the 2026 crop year as fall approaches and the 2025 growing season winds down. A near term decision will be pricing and purchasing nitrogen fertilizer for fall nitrogen applications. Today’s article provides an update on average fertilizer prices for Illinois and discusses strategies farmers can and do use to price their nitrogen fertilizer.| farmdoc daily
Maria Kalaitzandonakes, Jonathan Coppess, and Brenna Ellison - Using results from the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey, we find that awareness of Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) remains high and continues to be popular overall, however, support over the last three months, particularly amongst Democratic respondents, has waned some. Results also show that the respondents reported that MAHA is less aligned with their values than three months prior. Across parties, respondents’ ag...| farmdoc daily
Michael Langemeier, Michael Boehlje, and Joana Colussi - Midwest crop producers have experienced a significant downturn in prices since late 2023, resulting in a drop in net returns in 2024. Farms with low profitability and high solvency levels are typically financially stressed. This article used the operating profit margin ratio and the debt-to-asset ratio to create a measure of financial stress. Specifically, farms with a negative operating profit margin ratio and a debt-to-asset ratio abo...| farmdoc daily
Dale Lattz, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Carl Zulauf - Machinery cost estimates for 2025 have been released and are available in the Management section on the farmdoc website. Machinery costs are updated every two years, with the last update occurring in 2023. As is usual, estimated machinery costs have increased, with most increases in the 1% to 14% range. The increases from 2023 to 2025 are less than the increases estimated between 2021 and 2023, when many costs increased by as much as...| farmdoc daily
The farmdoc daily website offers research-based analysis for farmers, educators, journalists, traders, market analysts, and policy-makers around the globe. The overall goal of the farmdoc project - to provide U.S. Corn Belt crop and livestock producers with constant access to integrated information and expertise to better manage their farm businesses.| farmdoc daily
Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, and Jonathan Coppess - Nick Paulson - Tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China have the potential to increase the prices paid by consumers and products for goods, services, and inputs from those major US trading partners. Fertilizers are such an input for US farmers. Price increases would likely be greatest for potassium (K) given the US reliance on imports, in particular imports from Canada. Impacts would likely be smaller for nitrogen (N) ...| farmdoc daily