1) The Bull Market in Grifters. Joe Weisenthal's latest newsletter was fantastic and in it he makes an interesting point: We live in an age of extreme grift. This is obvious. There are people out there publicly organizing pump and dump| Discipline Funds
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary prospectus contains this and other important information about the investment company, and it may be obtained once available by calling 215-882-9983 or visiting www.disciplinefunds.com/dscf. Read it carefully before investing. | Discipline Funds
Okay, it's one thing inside of three things, but they're also three kind of different things related to one broader thing. I might be overthinking this. 1) The Labor Market is Very Soft. But Why?| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Another Frothy Bubblet Growing? While this is not exactly like the Covid induced 2021 speculative market, there are signs that something similar is occurring in 2025. The biggie is valuations which have now surpassed their 2021 highs and rank only second to the late [...]| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Macro Dashboard. I am working on a huge software update for the Defined Duration strategy, but in the meantime I've also updated the Macro Dashboard for those interested. I created a real-time Taylor Rule tool as well as an updating [...]| Discipline Funds
This is actually one thing with three very important conclusions. I was reading this article in the WSJ (h/t Ben Carlson) about people who make over $250,000 a year who don't feel rich. A common theme in| Discipline Funds
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary prospectus contains this and other important information about the investment company, and it may be obtained once available by calling 215-882-9983 or visiting www.disciplinefunds.com/dscf. Read it carefully before investing. | Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The Rise of Socialism. The knives are out in the NYC Mayoral election. The surprising surge in popularity of Zohran Mamdani has everyone around [...]| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The Rise of Socialism. The knives are out in the NYC Mayoral election. The surprising surge in popularity of Zohran Mamdani has everyone around the country focused on NYC and the rise of its| Discipline Funds
Three Things – Counterfactuals and Revisionist History| Discipline Funds
Sorry for the radio silence here. My very final book edits are due June 30th so I've been burning the midnight oil making sure all the details are perfect. I've now read my own 250 page book about 100 times so if anyone asks me how many books I read this year I| Discipline Funds
Did you hear that the bond market is crashing everywhere? That's right. If you open up the financial news today you'll see these three headlines as the top bond market news: My goodness. Sounds like it's bunker time! But| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Moody's Downgrades US Government Debt. After the close on Friday Moody's dropped a bombshell downgrade of US government debt from AAA to aa1. It's deja vu all over again for those of us| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) The China Deal is Actually a Big Deal The White House announced the framework for a trade deal with China where the effective tariff rate with China will drop to 30%. Trump had mentioned| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Should you replace your S&P 500 holding with Berkshire Hathaway? I got a great question from my friend Simon, a financial advisor in Canada, who has been having a debate with some of his| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Roche Recession Rule. I've updated the very, very famous Roche Recession Rule, which was very famously named by me and| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Fed Independence. The biggest news of this past week was the potential for the President to fire employees of independent agencies. That would include Fed Chairman Powell. I have no idea how plausible this| Discipline Funds
I did an FAQ video with readers about the current environment and what's going on. I tried to cover a lot of ground including: What caused the bond market spike in yields last week Why tariffs are bad| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) PAUSE. What. Is. Happening. With tariffs? They say there are years where nothing happens and then weeks where years happen. Well, that's what this last week feels like. My head is spinning. But I| Discipline Funds
Here are three things I am thinking about that are really only one thing, of course. 1) Why Tariffs are Bad. I got back into making YouTube videos this weekend (click here for the link). This time I touched| Discipline Funds
Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) How Did We Get Here? I won't bore you with more of the tariff debunking that I did last weekend. If you want to read that please| Discipline Funds
Well. By now we can all see the impacts of the tariff announcements. We’re potentially on the verge of a significant and long lasting shift in the global trade system we’ve constructed for over 40 years. I won’t rail against the tariffs again. I think I’ve made my position and outlook on that| Discipline Funds
John Bogle famously said that a US based investor doesn't need to own foreign stocks because US stocks get so much revenue from abroad. I rarely disagree with Bogle about anything, but this is one of the few things I think he got wrong. Late last year| Discipline Funds
Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson have published an excellent new book titled "Abundance". The broad message of the book is that the US has hampered its growth and potential with excessive regulations and bureaucratic hurdles in essential areas like housing, infrastructure and clean energy. These policies have| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Lots of Macro Thoughts. I did an interview with the guys over at Excess Returns this week. We covered a ton of ground including the broader macro outlook, the impact of tariffs,| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) How NOT To Invest. Barry Ritholtz is out with a new book called "How Not to Invest". I loved this one. We spend a lot of time in the investment| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Why Does the Stock Market Hate Tariffs? One of the predominant trends in Corporate America over the last 40 years has been an expansion in margins. It's one of the primary drivers of the great| Discipline Funds
As I write this the US stock market is down -2.5% on the day. It's down about -8.5% from its peak just a few weeks ago. Then again, it's up 11% over the last year, 38% over three years and 110% over 5 years. This is what the stock market does. Over long| Discipline Funds
Here are three bad ideas I think I am thinking about: 1) The Reserve Currency Issuer Doesn't Need a Strategic Currency Reserve. The Trump administration announced a Cryptocurrency Reserve Fund that would hold Bitcoin, Cardano, Solana and Ripple. They seem to think the US needs this| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The WalMart Warning. Markets fell over -1.5% on Friday as global PMIs disappointed on the downside and WalMart warned about their earnings for the year. How worrisome is this? I think Chris Williams of S&P| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Inflation STILL Isn't Scary. In the wake of Wednesday's CPI report there were all sorts of scary narratives about how inflation is raging and we're on the verge of a big second wave of inflation.| Discipline Funds
So. Tariff Man is back and apparently more serious than ever. At least for now. Let's talk about the good, the bad and the ugly. I hope this doesn't sound political, but that's probably unavoidable. So if you have hate mail please send it to Jerome Powell at jpow@moneyprinter.net. He had nothing to| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Lifetime of Stocks is...Shrinking. I loved this chart from Bank of America which shows the average lifespan of companies in the S&P 500| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Buy Versus Rent. I enjoyed this conversation between Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill about buying versus renting. I'm increasingly convinced that almost every asset purchase we| Discipline Funds
Warning - This is probably an "old man screams at cloud" rant, but we all have to embrace our old age at some point so here goes nothing.... One of the great strengths of the USA is its capital markets. No economy in the world does a better job of| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Book update. Please excuse the radio silence in recent weeks. I wrapped up my new book this week and I am just putting the finishing touches on it, but I've been burning the midnight| Discipline Funds
When the stock market booms like this we inevitably start getting questions about why we shouldn't be 100% stocks.1 More recently, the discussion has become even more concentrated as US stocks have outperformed international by a huge margin and now investors are wondering "why shouldn't I be 100% stocks AND 100% US stocks?"| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) A Win for Assflation? My greatest contribution to the field of economics is my General Theory of Assflation. No, that's not a theory about the obesity epidemic and its causes. I am referring to my| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Is the USA Going BANKRUPT? I joined Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill last week to discuss the never-ending controversy over the US national debt and the day| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: Politics. What a mess of a topic. But thankfully, as a perfectly moderate pragmatic thinker who is invulnerable to biases (lol) I am here to perform the autopsy on this messy situation. 1) Why Did Trump Win?| Discipline Funds
In a few short days/hours there will be a new President of the United States. Between now and then and long after you will hear biased stories about how the world is going to be transformed by political agendas. Some of it will be true, but most of it will be noise inside| Discipline Funds
If you missed the early weekend reading then please see here. But if you really want to ruin your weekend then please keep reading this special labor market edition of weekend reading. How about that labor report? The October employment report came in| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about at the end of this weekend. 1) Team Transitory Won (NOT)! Economists Explaining Recent Inflation to Middle Class Consumers It's been over 3 years since| Discipline Funds
Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Three Terrible Ideas That Won't Die. The Great Financial Crisis was wonderful because it got people interested in economics. And it was terrible in that it convinced a lot of people that mainstream| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Panicky Emotions of Short-Termism. What a wild week for the market. After closing down 2.5% on Monday following the panicky response to the previous Friday’s job report, the market ended the week…flat. If| Discipline Funds
Just a week ago the market narrative was all about "soft landing", but after Friday's labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to "emergency landing". Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and odds of a 50 bps cut went up to 75%. JP Morgan is calling for 50 bps cuts| Discipline Funds
One of the most common questions we get is "should I be worried about the death of the US Dollar?" It's a worthwhile question and certainly not a zero probability event. In fact, as Keynes famously said, "in the long-run we are all dead" and so are all fiat currencies. IN THE| Discipline Funds
The combination of the Great Financial Crisis period and the Covid era created some of the most interesting economic experiments in history. They also resulted in some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. Here are three bad narratives that are dead, but won't yet be laid to rest because economic narratives| Discipline Funds
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary prospectus contains this and other important information about the investment company, and it may be obtained once available by calling 215-882-9983 or visiting www.disciplinefunds.com/dscf. Read it carefully before investing. | Discipline Funds
INVEST LIKE THE MOST SOPHISTICATED INSTITUTIONS IN THE WORLD The world's most sophisticated institutions invest using asset/liability matching strategies to help them properly navigate their liquidity needs over time. Banks, pensions and other large institutions don't rely on vague "risk profiling" processes or Modern| Discipline Funds
Thursday's CPI report was a big downside surprise as more signs of disinflation appeared across the economy. Core CPI rose 0.06% in June which brought the annualized rate to 3.27%. That's the lowest rate since 2021. The big driver in the downside miss was shelter, which finally appears to be catching up to| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) All About Jobs. In an interview with Schwab earlier last week I said that the future path of Fed policy will be determined more so by employment reports and not inflation reports.| Discipline Funds
