Futarchy is a meta-algorithm for making decisions using a given set of traders. For every possible action a, the beliefs of these traders are aggregated using a prediction market for that action, w…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
1 post published by Caspar during June 2025| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
Let’s say we want to identify effective strategies for multi-agent games like the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma or more complex environments (like the kind of environments in Melting Pot)…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
Short summary and overview The SPI framework tells us that if we choose only between, for instance, aligned delegation and aligned delegation plus surrogate goal, then implementing the surrogate go…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
[For this post, I’ll assume some familiarity with the concept of moral trade and the distinction between consequentialist and deontological values.] In earlier work, I claimed that (in the specific…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
[Author’s note: Still uploading old papers. This one is rather unpolished, I wrote it for a class in a hurry and probably no longer endorse everything in it. Also, I had a bit too much fun wi…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
I assume some familiarity with basic concepts in the area of anthropics (a.k.a. self-locating beliefs or imperfect recall) and decision theory. A pragmatist maxim of action relevance Consider the f…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
[I assume the reader is familiar with Newcomb’s problem and causal decision theory. Some familiarity with basic theoretical computer science ideas also helps.] The Adversarial Offer In a recently (…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
(This post assumes that the reader is fairly familiar with the decision theory of Newcomb-like problems. Schwarz makes many of the same points in his post “On Functional Decision Theory” (though I …| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
[I assume that the reader is familiar with Newcomb’s problem and the Prisoner’s Dilemma against a similar opponent and ideally the equilibrium selection problem in game theory.] The trust dilemma (…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
[Epistemic status: Non-careful speculation] Political philosophy is full of idealized hypothetical scenarios in which rational agents negotiate and determine the basic constitution of society. I su…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance
In this excellent post, Ben Garfinkel asks: An analogy is sometimes made to the industrial revolution and the agricultural revolution. The idea is that in the future, impacts of AI may be substanti…| The Universe from an Intentional Stance