Federal redistributions in Australia rely on two sets of numbers – the actual enrolment numbers at the time that the process commences, and an estimate of how many voters will be enrolled at …| The Tally Room
Federal redistributions have recently commenced in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. The AEC yesterday published the enrolment data to be used to draw New South Wales federal elector…| The Tally Room
Last month I posted about the increase in the proportion of votes that were cast early (postal, pre-poll and remote) as opposed to those cast on election day. 55.7% of votes were cast early, with j…| The Tally Room
I’ve got yet another chapter in the long story of Australians’ changing habits in voting. With the final results of the Tasmanian state election, we can look at the Tasmanian trend. The…| The Tally Room
The Australian Electoral Commission conducts a two-party-preferred vote in every seat, which is a count between Labor and the leading Liberal or Nationals candidate. In seats where the two-candidat…| The Tally Room
The AEC published a fact sheet today with their estimates of margins for each electorate changed by the recently-completed federal redistributions. There are a few pretty big differences between th…| The Tally Room
6:12pm – I have one last update and then my margins will be finalised. There are four seats in Victoria where independents made it to the two-candidate-preferred count (2CP), but have added n…| The Tally Room
We rely on independent mapmakers to draw electoral boundaries at each redistribution. There is an extensive process of public consultation, and there are rules about how seats can be drawn, but ult…| The Tally Room
The Tasmanian government has announced plans to “reform” Tasmanian local government by slashing the number of councillors across the state. The government has put up a discussion paper …| The Tally Room
11:20 – I don’t think we’ll get any more voting data tonight. I’ve done a quick video summing up the results on Instagram. That’s it for tonight. 10:13 – Kiama p…| The Tally Room
Ben was joined by Matt Dennien from the Brisbane Times to discuss the Queensland state redistribution, specifically the first round of submissions. The conversation focuses on the Labor and LNP sub…| The Tally Room
The first round of public submissions for the Queensland state redistribution were published last week – about three weeks after they were submitted to the Commission. So I thought it would b…| The Tally Room
There’s been a lot of talk about expanding the size of Australia’s federal parliament in the last few years. Some of us have been talking about this for a lot longer, but it has seemed …| The Tally Room
We now have a quiet period following the federal election and the Tasmanian election, and I’m using it as an opportunity to complete my election guides for the elections next in the queue. Th…| The Tally Room
With a few elections finishing up, I have now made a number of additions to the Tally Room’s data repository. The repository is something I made to deal with the poor state of election result…| The Tally Room
With the resignation of Gareth Ward this morning, shortly before his expected expulsion from Parliament, a by-election will be needed to replace him in Parliament. The Kiama by-election should happ…| The Tally Room
There has been a clear trend in all Australian elections over the last twenty years of voters moving away from voting on election day, with an increasing number of voters choosing pre-poll voting a…| The Tally Room
Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system is proportional, but it’s not purely proportional. Each division elects seven members, and results are not just about how many votes each party receives …| The Tally Room
UPDATE: The original blog post was published on June 18. The AEC published the full 3CP data for all of Australia on June 23. On June 24th, I updated my analysis with this extra information. As oth…| The Tally Room
Prior to the election, I drew attention to the differences between my calculations and those of the AEC for a number of non-classic seats that gained new areas during the redistribution. Originally…| The Tally Room
British polling company YouGov published their first MRP report for the 2025 election cycle, becoming the second company to publish an MRP during this election cycle. For this post I wanted to run …| The Tally Room
Ben was joined by Shaun Ratcliff from Accent Research to discuss the state of play as the federal election year kicks off. They discuss the state of polling, including the MRP polls conducted by Sh…| The Tally Room
The Northern Territory Electoral Commission published its draft boundaries for the 2024 Legislative Assembly election back in May, but that process will now have to start over due to tremendous enr…| The Tally Room
The draft boundaries for the next Northern Territory Legislative Assembly election in 2024 were released yesterday. Changes were mostly restricted to the Darwin-Palmerston area, and no seats have c…| The Tally Room
Ben is joined by Dr Simon Hix from the European University Institute to discuss a paper he co-wrote with John Carey about finding the Electoral Sweet Spot: how low-magnitude proportional representa…| The Tally Room
The redistribution of electoral boundaries for the 2024 Northern Territory election was finalised on Friday. This has been a long process. The first draft boundaries were thrown out when there was …| The Tally Room
