On the strength of its close relationship with the Trump national security team, its large army, and its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, Egypt has become an indispensable actor in nearly all the key security files facing the Near East. From Libya in the west to Iran in the east, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi […] The post Egypt Becomes Central to Middle East Peace and Security appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
On October 30, U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea. This highly anticipated meeting—the first one between the two leaders since 2019—has been touted as charting the course for the future of U.S.-People’s Republic of China (PRC) relations. Trump’s first term fundamentally shifted U.S. policy on China from engagement to competition, notably by imposing s...| The Soufan Center
U.S. President Donald Trump began the first leg of his Asia tour on Sunday with a visit to Malaysia, where he oversaw the signing of a historic peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, long at odds over their shared border. The signing of the agreement, which Trump coined the “Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords,” was preceded by a ceasefire deal that he helped broker in […] The post Trump Launches Asia Tour with Thai–Cambodian Peace Deal and New Trade Push appeared first on The...| The Soufan Center
Nearly a year after longtime Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebel faction aligned at one point with al-Qaeda, the Islamic State seized upon power vacuums within the country to recruit new members, launch fresh attacks, and destabilize Ahmed al-Sharaa’s nascent government. After the fall of Assad, Islamic State […] The post Islamic State Wages a Guerrilla Insurgency Throughout Eastern Syria appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
A debate is raging among major stakeholders over whether the Trump 20 Point Plan for resolving the Gaza conflict is advancing, stalled, or, at worst, failing. Last week, a succession of top U.S. officials, including the key Gaza mediators Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Vice President J.D. Vance, and, finally, Secretary of State […] The post Trump Team Facing Challenges in Ongoing Effort to Implement Gaza Peace Plan appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to rise amid the over two-year civil war as the RSF’s targeting of the Sudanese capital of Khartoum and its main airport has persisted. The SAF reclaimed Khartoum from the RSF in March by recapturing the presidential palace and government headquarters […] The post War Without End: How Drone Warfare and Failed Diplomacy Are Fragmenting Sudan appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
Türkiye has been a primary beneficiary of the geostrategic reordering of the Middle East region since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Israel’s successful campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its non-state allies has altered the strategic architecture of the region, but its use of overwhelming force against Hamas in Gaza […] The post Türkiye Expands into the Middle East Void appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
On the first day of his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump identified drug cartels as terrorist groups. Since then, the United States has been ramping up assets — both military and intelligence — to modify its force posture, assuming a more aggressive approach toward combating violent drug trafficking organizations and transnational criminal groups (reflagged as […] The post Is the United States Preparing for a War with Drug Cartels and Transnational Criminal Gangs? appeared firs...| The Soufan Center
Days after Joe Biden won enough electoral votes to become President-Elect, President Trump still refuses to accept defeat and calls the election a fraud. It is with this backdrop that President Trump fired the Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, the fifth person to hold that office during the Trump administration| The Soufan Center
Devastating terrorist attacks in Afghanistan earlier this week shocked the country and threatened to derail an already tenuous peace process| The Soufan Center
In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump declared his administration’s intentions to end the war in Afghanistan, remarking, ‘we are bringing our troops home.’| The Soufan Center
Following several months of negotiations in Doha between U.S. officials and Taliban leaders, an agreement on bringing the war in Afghanistan to a formally recognized end now seems imminent| The Soufan Center
The ink has barely dried from signing the peace agreement between the United States and the Afghan Taliban and already the deal is being tested by potential spoilers.| The Soufan Center
After clearing the latest hurdle of a prisoner swap between the Afghan government and the Taliban, there will now be a push to capitalize on the momentum to move forward with peace talks| The Soufan Center
On May 19, 2019, a prison riot broke out at a high-security prison in the Tajik town of Vakhdat, leaving 29 people dead, including guards, high-profile individuals within the political opposition, and members and supporters of the so-called Islamic State (IS)| The Soufan Center
United States President Joseph Biden met with President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan last week to discuss recent setbacks in Afghanistan| The Soufan Center
France’s Operation Serval in 2013 – intended to oust al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)-allied jihadist groups from northern Mali -- temporarily stabilized the region| The Soufan Center
As American troops draw down in Afghanistan—leaving open-ended a two-decade Global War on Terror catalyzed by the attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001—their departure poses a critical question for India and its neighbors. Does the U.S. response leave the region more stable or less stable than before| The Soufan Center
Nearly two decades after the attacks of September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda is a much different organization than the group formerly led by Osama bin Laden| The Soufan Center
On December 12, Turkish President Erdogan stated, in unequivocal terms, ‘it is clear that the purpose of U.S. observation points in Syria is not to protect our country from terrorists, but protect terrorists from Turkey.’| The Soufan Center
Dozens of Turkish soldiers were killed in an airstrike on Thursday in a development that threatens to drastically escalate the conflict in Syria. A Turkish military convoy was shelled as it moved to resupply an observation post at Al Bara, and the post was subsequently hit with airstrikes| The Soufan Center
Energy geopolitics, commercial competition, territorial disputes, and intra-NATO fissures have all coalesced in the eastern Mediterranean| The Soufan Center
As leaders from NATO countries gathered this week in London to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the alliance, they did so amidst growing uncertainty over the institution’s future| The Soufan Center
Over the weekend fighting erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, centered around the historically disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked region located in the South Caucasus that has led to previous disputes between Yerevan and Baku| The Soufan Center
The unfolding crisis over the October 02, 2018 disappearance and likely murder of Jamal Khashoggi has highlighted growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Turkey| The Soufan Center
On the heels of its suspension from the F-35 fighter jets program with the United States, Turkey is now reportedly considering joint development of its own fighter jet with Russia| The Soufan Center
Al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group in Somalia, is resurging again and demonstrating its ability to launch attacks with impunity| The Soufan Center
External intervention in Libya has increased in recent years, with a group of countries including Russia, France, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt supporting warlord Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA)| The Soufan Center
The ongoing war in Libya is a catastrophe that has spawned a persistent humanitarian crisis along the shores of the Mediterranean Sea| The Soufan Center
Seventeen years after the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaeda has survived, due in large part to a deliberate strategy focused on gaining the support of the masses by “going local.” Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the youngest affiliate of al-Qaeda, is in many ways the realization of that new strategy. Western counterterrorism circles are slowly recognizing the viability of al-Qaeda’s reach into South Asia, as AQIS appears to be building its capabilities throughout the region as other te...| The Soufan Center
Last week, the New York Times reported that in August of this year, Israeli agents killed al-Qaeda’s number two, Abu Mohammed al-Masri, in Tehran| The Soufan Center
As announced by the Biden administration in mid-April, the United States is withdrawing its remaining forces from Afghanistan no later than September 11, 2021. The announcement sent shockwaves from Kabul to Washington| The Soufan Center
The Biden administration is weighing the option of whether to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by the May 1 deadline or to extend through November 2020. Department of Defense officials have reportedly presented President Biden with several options, including pulling all troops in the beginning of May| The Soufan Center
Sunday May 2nd, 2021 will mark ten years since U.S. Navy Seals killed al-Qaeda’s longtime leader Osama bin Laden in a raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The sense of optimism following the operation targeting the elusive terrorist leader| The Soufan Center
Last week, President Biden announced the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. While the decision has been criticized both from a messaging as well as a national security standpoint, the question of how the United States will continue to carry out its counterterrorism operations in the country and region remains unanswered| The Soufan Center
As the Biden administration prepares to take office, few foreign policy issues present as much of a sense of urgency as U.S. involvement in Afghanistan| The Soufan Center
Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, was rocked Tuesday evening by a massive vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) and running gun battles, including near the “Green Zone,” a heavily fortified area where government ministries and foreign embassies are located| The Soufan Center
The Afghan capital of Kabul has fallen to the Taliban, as fighters marauded through the city, even posing for a photo opportunity in Afghanistan’s Presidential Palace. Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country on Sunday in anticipation of the Taliban’s advance| The Soufan Center
The conflict in Libya reached a nadir of human misery last week when an airstrike hit a migrant detention center in the Tajoura suburb of Tripoli, killing at least 53 refugees, including six children| The Soufan Center
The United Nations has desperately sought to avoid an escalation of the conflict in Libya, while external states have interfered by backing both the officially recognized government and forces who are in opposition to that government| The Soufan Center
Turkey has moved aggressively to intervene in Libya’s internecine civil war. Ankara supports the Government of National Accord (GNA)—recognized by the United Nations—in an effort to prop up the increasingly beleaguered government. The deployment of Turkish troops to Libya is not an act of mere altruism| The Soufan Center
The potential for U.S. or Israeli military conflict with Iran is increasing as the two allies perceive Iran’s regional influence as increasingly threatening and its military capabilities growing.| The Soufan Center
Iranian leaders and their policies are being challenged on a wide range of fronts, in some cases as a result of actions by the Trump Administration and in other cases by the regime’s own failings.| The Soufan Center
As expected, on May 8 President Trump ended U.S. participation in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—to which not only the United States and Iran but also Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China are parties| The Soufan Center
In a speech at the conservative Heritage Foundation on May 21, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expanded on President Donald Trump’s May 8 announcement that the United States would withdraw from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with Iran| The Soufan Center
As of late August, a number of indicators collectively suggest that the Trump administration no longer considers exercising preponderant influence in Iraq to be a top priority| The Soufan Center
In past U.S. presidential elections races, foreign policy issues, and Middle East policy in particular, were central to the U.S. debate. In 2020, the region has barely registered during the campaign season, with the possible exception of U.S. policy toward Iran| The Soufan Center
On January 7, Iran responded to the death of IRGC-QF Major General Qassim Soleimani by launching nearly two dozen ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases where American troops are stationed| The Soufan Center
Despite three months of relative stability in the U.S-Iran relationship, signs began to appear this past November and December that tensions were re-emerging| The Soufan Center
The novel coronavirus first reached the Middle East region in the form of a significant outbreak in Iran’s holy city of Qom, from there expanding within Iran, and then spreading further throughout the region as visitors to Iran’s many shrines returned to their home countries.| The Soufan Center
To view Iran’s foreign policy posture as strictly a state sponsor of terrorism is short-sighted and fails to appropriately capture the comprehensive nature of how Iran operates. Iran’s strategy is sophisticated and nuanced, using tactics including soft power and various economic support structures to further its aims.Iran’s grand strategy is intended to achieve absolute security, defined as the ability to thwart its adversaries’ ability to overturn its regime or invade Iran militarily...| The Soufan Center
On January 3, 2020, shortly after the targeted killing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force’s (IRGC-QF) top official, Qassem Soleimani, the U.S. Department of State designated Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO)| The Soufan Center
By all accounts, it was U.S. forces that carried out a strike on January 2 that killed the top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Qods Force (IRGC-QF) Qasem Soleimani, who has over the past two decades built up Iran’s wide network of allies and proxies that Tehran uses to project power and defend its allies| The Soufan Center
Weeks after the so-called Islamic State (IS) was removed from its last remaining territory in Baghouz, Syria, a different kind of struggle is taking place in the squalid refugee and prisoner camps throughout Syria and Iraq| The Soufan Center
The military fight against the Islamic State has been exceedingly difficult and costly, especially to the Iraqi and Syrian forces that have fought the group for years, but also to civilians uprooted from their homes and forced to flee in order to survive.| The Soufan Center
Just last week, the Islamic State’s affiliate in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula launched a deadly attack, killing eight police officers at a checkpoint. The violence unfolded in Arish, a city located in the northern Sinai Peninsula| The Soufan Center
The conflict in Syria is reshaping long-held assumptions about proxy warfare and the emergence of second and third order proxies. Ironically, this new paradigm has left the major regional and international powers with less control over events in Syria - and elsewhere - in spite of increased involvement...| The Soufan Center
On July 25, 2018, the Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked several Saudi ships in the Red Sea that Saudi Arabia said were oil tankers, although the Houthis claimed they were warships| The Soufan Center
Despite having an essentially blank check from the White House when it comes to Iran, Saudi Arabia has not only failed to counter Tehran’s influence in the Middle East but has actually enhanced it.| The Soufan Center
On October 26, 2019, the leader of the so-called Islamic State since 2010, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi met his end when U.S. Special Forces carried out a daring operation () in the outskirts of Barisha in Idlib, Syria| The Soufan Center
Exactly one year ago to the day, United States Special Operations Forces (SOF) hunted down the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who died after detonating a suicide vest in a town in northern Syria near Turkey| The Soufan Center
A United States military operation has reportedly killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the so-called Islamic State, in a raid conducted on October 26, 2019| The Soufan Center
With a recent flurry of activity across Syria and Iraq, the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) is showing signs that its strategic patience is beginning to pay dividends. Beginning Thursday through this weekend, ISIS militants laid siege to the Hasakah Provincial Internal Security Forces| The Soufan Center
As Syrian dictator Bashar al-Asad continues seeking to gain control over rebel-held territory and move toward claiming victory in the Syrian civil war, the United States is looking to consolidate and expand its presence in the eastern provinces of Deir al-Zour and al-Hasakah| The Soufan Center
Following the latest volley of intensified fighting in Syria, the most recent iteration between Turkey and the Assad regime, thousands of refugees are fleeing the country| The Soufan Center
Even as Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad appears closer to prevailing in the nearly decade-long civil war engulfing Syria, there are new signs of instability amidst a tanking economy, and growing protests| The Soufan Center
The Syrian civil war continues to rage, with most of the intense fighting taking place in northwestern Syria in Idlib Province| The Soufan Center
The recent hunger strike by ten French women at Roj camp highlights the complex legal, security, and humanitarian challenges of managing the risks and needs of detainees associated with the so-called Islamic State (henceforth ISIS) and their children| The Soufan Center
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited U.S. President Trump in Washington to press for long-range “Tomahawk” cruise missiles, as Ukraine faces renewed pressure from Russia in the nearly four-year war. While U.S. relations with Ukraine had initially soured when President Trump took office earlier this year, they began to improve this summer as Trump […] The post Washington Continues to Push for Diplomatic End to Russia’s War in Ukraine appeared first on The Souf...| The Soufan Center
Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin last Wednesday represented geostrategy intended to ensure that major outside powers play a positive role in — rather than spoil — Syria’s political and economic transition. He seeks, in large part, to convey that Syria is no longer an arena for […] The post Syria Exploits Great Power Competition in Drive for Stability and Security appeared first on The Soufan Center.| The Soufan Center
In the past month, unidentified drones — widely believed to be Russian — have menaced Europe, intruding into foreign airspace and causing major disruptions, including temporary airport shutdowns. The wave of incursions began in earnest on September 9, when several drones flew over Polish airspace, prompting the closure of airports in Warsaw, Rzeszów, Lublin, and […]| The Soufan Center
October 21, 2025| The Soufan Center
Lebanese Hezbollah, formed in the early 1980s by Lebanese Shia disciples of the leader of Iran’s Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, is Iran’s closest “Axis of Resistance” partner and a key instrument through which Iran projects power throughout the region.| The Soufan Center
Press reports, along with actions taken by both sides, suggest that Washington and Tehran are working actively and consistently to prevent the expansion of the Israel-Hamas war from evolving into direct military conflict between them.| The Soufan Center
Since 2015, Iran and Russia have been strategic partners in the Middle East, as the two countries teamed up to defend Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime against a 2011 nationwide armed rebellion that nearly toppled his government.| The Soufan Center
The crisis in the Red Sea that has resulted from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement on commercial shipping has thus far proved impervious to U.S. diplomatic or military initiatives.| The Soufan Center
Iran’s April 14 direct attack on Israeli territory, involving approximately more than 170 armed drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles, appeared intended to demonstrate Iran’s military technology advances and establish a measure of deterrence against Tehran’s main regional adversary.| The Soufan Center
Over the weekend, Iran finally launched its long-awaited response to Israel's targeting of high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Quds Force (IRGC-QF) members on April 1st at Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria.| The Soufan Center
Syrian President Bashar Al Assad immediately sought to exploit the humanitarian catastrophe resulting from the earthquake that struck southeastern Türkiye and northwestern Syria in early February to break out of more than a decade of regional and global isolation pariah status in response to his regime’s use of brutality and military force to crush a popular uprising that began in 2011| The Soufan Center
With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the subsequent Taliban takeover, questions arise about their relationship to al-Qaeda and the terrorist threat today| The Soufan Center
In mid-September, Iran’s “morality police,” a force that monitors public adherence to the Islamic dress codes enacted in 1981, arrested and took 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish Iranian visiting family in Tehran, to a government-run “re-education center| The Soufan Center
On November 11, Germany and Iceland, with the support of 44 other states, submitted an official request to convene a special session of the United Nations Human Rights Council to address the Iranian regime’s violent crackdown against more than two months of protests| The Soufan Center
It is perhaps too soon to conclude that the U.S. and Iran have reached an impasse after five rounds of negotiations, since April 12, on a nuclear agreement that would replace the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear accord (JCPOA) that President Donald Trump exited in 2018, during his initial term. That pact technically remains in effect […]| The Soufan Center
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the U.S. presidency, Iran’s nuclear program will factor prominently, as it did during his former term, in U.S. strategy to address the Iranian threat to regional stability and U.S. allies throughout the region. Yet, the legacy of the first Trump administration’s withdrawal from the delicately crafted 2015 multilateral […]| The Soufan Center
Earlier this week, Russia launched a drone assault on Ukraine, which Ukrainian forces considered one of the largest of the war, involving nearly 500 drones and missiles in Ukrainian airspace. This unprecedented escalation is a direct response to the large-scale drone operation carried out by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) on June 1 which targeted Russian […]| The Soufan Center
During a press briefing last week, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder stated: “The United States has confirmed reports that Iran has transferred shipments of Fath 360 close-range ballistic missiles to Russia, which we assess could employ them within weeks against Ukraine, leading to the deaths of even more Ukrainian civilians.” He […]| The Soufan Center
The only certainty arising from the U.S. drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is the forthcoming period of volatility and tumult| The Soufan Center
On Sunday morning regional time, the U.S. conducted an Air Force-led highly secretive operation (“Operation Midnight Hammer”), involving 125 combat aircraft and submarine-launched cruise missiles, against three nuclear sites in central Iran — the uranium conversion facility at Isfahan, and the two uranium enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow. U.S. officials admitted the operation included […]| The Soufan Center
In a marked shift from earlier signals of imminent military escalation, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a period of up to two weeks to allow diplomatic efforts with Iran to proceed before deciding on possible U.S. military involvement. The decision — delivered through a statement read by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt — […]| The Soufan Center
The situation between Israel and Iran has developed into a rapidly escalating conflict, with both sides aggressively attacking the other and each side sustaining civilian casualties. Within the course of the past forty-eight hours, however, there appears to be a growing realization that without direct U.S. intervention, the conflict could continue spiraling out of control […]| The Soufan Center
A group of four militants from Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), a Pakistani-based terrorist group, opened fire on civilians earlier this week in the tourist destination of Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered state of Kashmir. At least 26 individuals have been confirmed dead and 20 more seriously injured, in an attack where the gunmen allegedly singled out Hindus, asking […]| The Soufan Center
As China’s global profile has grown over the past few decades, so has its involvement in the Middle East.| The Soufan Center
At the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, Western leaders formally launched the global infrastructure and investment partnership that was officially unveiled one year ago at the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Britain| The Soufan Center
At a September summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security-focused grouping of Russia, China, and several Central and South Asian states, Iran’s application for a promotion from observer status to full membership of the grouping was approved| The Soufan Center
As the second anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack approaches, U.S. and regional diplomats are as pessimistic as ever that the conflict in Gaza can be brought to a conclusion. Israel’s failed strike on a meeting of Hamas leaders in Doha on September 9 appeared intended to — and did — derail ongoing diplomacy. The Israeli […]| The Soufan Center
Amidst violent unrest along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to merge with the country’s new government earlier this week, in what has been hailed as a historic agreement. The deal was widely lauded as a breakthrough for the interim government, led by former Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) frontman Ahmed al-Sharaa, […]| The Soufan Center
The Islamic State is prioritizing freeing its operatives and supporters from SDF-controlled prisons and detention camps, seeing that as a necessary step for the group’s resurgence. To that end, they’ve launched attacks on prisons and jails, the most notable of which was the 2022 al-Sinaa prison break at al-Hasakah. The largest prison in the Northeast, […]| The Soufan Center
The regional warfare that erupted following the Hamas incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023 laid bare the challenges to the region posed by non-state actors willing and able to defy state authority to pursue their separate ideologies and further the objectives of their outside backers. In three cases – Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, all […]| The Soufan Center
The Syrian people, as well as Western and regional leaders, hoped that the fall of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to Islamist rebels professing moderation and tolerance would quickly produce domestic stability. Regional and European countries anticipated an end to civil conflict might encourage the more than 6 million Syrian refugees and 7 million […]| The Soufan Center
Governments are increasingly acknowledging the imperative of repatriating their female and minor citizens from detention camps in Syria.| The Soufan Center
