The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland supports the US economy and our region by studying economic conditions and issues that impact our communities, serving financial institutions, and providing economic education and resources for all.| www.clevelandfed.org
This Economic Commentary explains how warehousing—a seemingly innocuous institutional arrangement between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury—came to threaten the Fed’s independence. Warehousing began as an arcane procedure designed to help the Treasury cover a specific type of foreign-exchange exposure. It then grew into a supplemental source of funding for the Treasury’s foreign-exchange interventions. Eventually the procedure morphed into a sizeable off-budget source of funding...| www.clevelandfed.org
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.| www.clevelandfed.org
Economic Commentary offers deep-dive analysis of timely economic issues for an informed but nonspecialist audience, as well as news from our Bank and the world of monetary policy generally.| www.clevelandfed.org
Since early 2021, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Using a combination of data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events, we empirically assess what has caused persistently elevated inflation. Our estimates suggest that both aggregate demand and supply factors, including supply chain disruptions, have contributed significantly to high inflation.| www.clevelandfed.org
The economic returns to education are well documented. It is also well-known that college graduates with certain majors will earn more than others and find it easier to land a job. But surprisingly, the courses students take in high school also make a difference, when the courses are mathematics. Even among workers with the same level of education, those with more math have higher wages on average and are less likely to be unemployed. These findings suggest that even students ending their for...| www.clevelandfed.org
We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.| www.clevelandfed.org