What is Blueskyism?
And why is it so toxic for political persuasion?| Silver Bulletin
And our projected best (and worst) QBs of 2025. Introducing QBERT ratings and previewing our ELWAY NFL model.| Silver Bulletin
Aggressive partisan gerrymandering is bad for democracy. But the new equilibrium is not necessarily bad for Democrats — if they play hardball.| Silver Bulletin
It’s time to stop being polite. Here are 36 takes on how moderation does or doesn't help candidates win — and why I trust outsiders to build election models more than academics.| Silver Bulletin
Almost certainly a few. But it all depends on whether the GOP can hold onto their gains among Hispanic voters.| Silver Bulletin
It's a tough call when you consider Fox News. Plus, teasing our new NFL model with Patrick Mahomes — and my poker player rating system.| Silver Bulletin
The paperback edition of On the Edge is out today.| Silver Bulletin
Political types are obsessed with the story. But that doesn't mean it's penetrated into the broader public.| Silver Bulletin
Part II of our Future of the Franchise rankings.| Silver Bulletin
Luckily for them, Jon Ossoff has an edge.| Silver Bulletin
Economics played a role. Politics might have, too. But mainstream liberal comedy has struggled between the death of mass culture and the rise of Trump.| Silver Bulletin
After an unprecedented period of upheaval, which teams are most likely to win the title over the next 10 seasons?| Silver Bulletin
How the Big Beautiful Bill is ugly for gamblers, why Zohran's opponents are unhinged, how I use ChatGPT, and more.| Silver Bulletin
A chat with Derek Thompson from A (Abundance) to Z (Zohran). Plus, how Substack is disrupting the media, and some early thoughts on the NYC general election.| Silver Bulletin
No NBA team has gone from zero to dominant this quickly. So why isn't Oklahoma City getting the love it deserves?| www.natesilver.net
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.| www.natesilver.net
The 2-hour rule is usually a myth.| www.natesilver.net
Firing the BLS commissioner won’t prevent the effects of tariffs. But it will reduce American economic leadership and increase uncertainty for businesses, workers and investors.| www.natesilver.net
Probably not. Unless Musk is truly thinking big.| www.natesilver.net
The Knicks just had their best season in 25 years. Then they fired Tom Thibodeau. Does that make any sense?| www.natesilver.net
Plus, the New York City mayor’s race — and whether win probability models are broken.| www.natesilver.net
I’m impressed by large language models. So why can't they get the basics of poker right?| www.natesilver.net
Everyone loves an underdog story. Even in the city that has everything.| www.natesilver.net
Prediction markets and the conventional wisdom have limitations when they become feedback loops.| www.natesilver.net
And why they’re producing chaos on tariffs.| www.natesilver.net
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.| www.natesilver.net
Tech stocks have tumbled since Trump took office. More about the mindset that led much of the Valley to support him in the first place.| www.natesilver.net
Sometimes, the stock market is the economy.| www.natesilver.net
Could Democrats retake the House before the midterms?| www.natesilver.net
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, our all-time men's basketball Top 100 teams.| www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2024.| www.natesilver.net
After the election, the timelines are accelerating. We need a pluralistic debate about its implications — but the left is dealing itself out.| www.natesilver.net
Or will the vibe soon shift back to the left?| www.natesilver.net
He made a triple devil’s bargain: with the pandemic, his age, and a Democratic Party that can’t get its priorities straight.| www.natesilver.net
"Fact-checkers" as the high priests of journalism had a political beginning at Facebook — and have met a political end.| www.natesilver.net
A call for a pluralistic approach to Cooperstown.| www.natesilver.net
Were efforts to conceal Biden’s age-related decline a “conspiracy”?| www.natesilver.net
Running the numbers on the largest contract in baseball history.| www.natesilver.net
In a two-party system, the party coalitions are full of contradictions — and the Democrats' are becoming more obvious.| www.natesilver.net
From Diet Woke to Brat Summer to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯| www.natesilver.net
Part 1 of a 3-part autopsy on the Harris campaign. Plus, a GiveDirectly fundraiser!| www.natesilver.net
Hunter Biden's pardon is another log on the fire.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, what might change in the model for 2028. And prediction markets: lucky or good?| www.natesilver.net
My 7 tips for a successful Substack.| www.natesilver.net
Trump's win is mostly Biden's fault, not hers. Still, she was a mediocre candidate in a year when Democrats needed a strong one.| www.natesilver.net
And that might not be such a bad thing for Democrats, especially with their Electoral College disadvantage erased.| www.natesilver.net
Odds for every game for filling out your bracket in the men's tournament. Connecticut is the best bet to repeat — but they probably won't.| www.natesilver.net
The subtext of why there was no serious primary challenge to Biden| www.natesilver.net
The Democratic Party needs to ask WTF just happened, and the answers may be right there on the 7 train.| www.natesilver.net
All your last-minute questions, answered. Actually, just 13 of them.| www.natesilver.net
So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.| www.natesilver.net
Either Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry.| www.natesilver.net
Explaining the gap between Harris’s favorability ratings and the head-to-head polls.| www.natesilver.net
We don't lack in explanations for why he returned to the White House.| www.natesilver.net
And what does “momentum” mean in the context of an election forecast?| www.natesilver.net
Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says.| www.natesilver.net
Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.| www.natesilver.net
*Statistically* biased, we mean. A guide to house effects in the Silver Bulletin model.| www.natesilver.net
It’s the Electoral College.| www.natesilver.net
If the popular vote is close, Trump will probably win the election.| www.natesilver.net
The tale of the tape.| www.natesilver.net
The bull and the bear case for Harris’s post-convention numbers.| www.natesilver.net
Harris's convention bounce has offset any impact — so far.| www.natesilver.net
She's good at this. And her speech was a shift away from Clintonian politics — and from wokeness.| www.natesilver.net
You can like the president or his policies. But his campaign was a disaster. And he didn't just drop out — he lost.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, book events and newsletter pricing.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, we’re launching a new subscriber Chat platform. And: hardcover or audiobook?| www.natesilver.net
Challenger Mode has been working for her. But running as the frontrunner can be harder.| www.natesilver.net
She’s doing much better than Biden in every swing state.| www.natesilver.net
My new book, On the Edge, is out today! Here's everything you need to know about it.| www.natesilver.net
Denying Joe Biden's decline has put Democrats in a terrible position.| www.natesilver.net
For instance, why it so different from 538?| www.natesilver.net
Biden needs a more robust electoral map.| www.natesilver.net
Elections have consequences, so "future political considerations" are probably more important than their role as "governing partner".| www.natesilver.net
Or maybe he’s Larry Bird. But he’s definitely among the 10 best players of all-time.| www.natesilver.net
The rules may be different when it’s a sprint and not a marathon.| www.natesilver.net
So far, the vice president is still coming out ahead.| www.natesilver.net
Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions, Edition #11A.| www.natesilver.net
Kamala Harris is giving Democrats the race that Joe Biden couldn’t.| www.natesilver.net
Our forecast when Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, frozen on the day he dropped out.| www.natesilver.net
Do home-state effects matter?| www.natesilver.net
It's fine. But Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk.| www.natesilver.net
Here's what it's about, and why you should consider buying it.| www.natesilver.net
So is Trump's, but an extra four years makes a difference, and it could be the difference in the election.| www.natesilver.net
They're probably still underdogs against Trump, but Biden dropping out improves their odds.| www.natesilver.net
But Democrats probably need a better messenger than Biden.| www.natesilver.net
Democrats don't know how to spot a bluff.| www.natesilver.net
It barely pays attention to the polls. And its results just don't make a lot of sense.| www.natesilver.net
Reality comes for everyone — and now it's come for Joe BIden.| www.natesilver.net
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.| www.natesilver.net
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.| www.natesilver.net
There aren’t many changes from 2020 — but here are the exceptions.| www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.| www.natesilver.net
Here’s what I’ve learned after many long hours at the WSOP.| www.natesilver.net
The White House gets an A+ on tactics — but they're playing a mediocre hand.| www.natesilver.net
It’s not just Republicans who are at risk of epistemic closure.| www.natesilver.net
