Thank you to our supporters, who help keep our nation secure. ISW is grateful to the many individuals, corporations, and foundations that provide generous support to help us execute our mission. Through their generosity, ISW is able to help keep our| Institute for the Study of War
The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe, not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine. US Vice President JD Vance gave an interview to Fox News on August 10 and reiterated the Trump Adm| Institute for the Study of War
Russian gains along the frontline have slowed over the last four months, but Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the casualty rate Russian forces sustained during a period of intensified advances between September and December| Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin is continuing to suffer significant manpower losses to make tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast at the expense of Russia's ongoing war effort and the medium-term viability of the Russian economy.| Institute for the Study of War
Adversary Entente Task Force Update, July 30, 2025| Institute for the Study of War
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 5 to 6, including a "double-tap strike" against emergency responders. Recent adaptations to Russian long-range drone technologies and strike tactics| Institute for the Study of War
The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia's agreement, and the United States reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid. US and Ukrainian representatives met in| Institute for the Study of War
Statement on ISW Methodology May 4, 2023 The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) welcomes robust and rigorous debate on the issues ISW covers and is especially grateful for the interaction with and feedback from those who engage seriously with the methodological challenges of performing intelligence from publicly available information. ISW’s entire team shares a passion for sound tradecraft and a desire to engage openly regarding our methodology, including our analytic and forecasting succ...| Institute for the Study of War
By John Dunford and Brandon Wallace Key Takeaway: ISIS has mounted low-level efforts to replenish its ranks from members held in detention facilities and displacement camps across Syria and Iraq since late 2018. Some ISIS members have paid bribes to guards in order to buy their freedom. Others have rioted or mounted small-scale escapes attempts from at least four detention facilities in Syria and Iraq since September 2018. ISIS is likely preparing more coordinated and sophisticated ope...| Institute for the Study of War
Download the PDF Key Takeaway: ISIS has orchestrated an annual campaign of intensified attacks around the Islamic holy month of Ramadan since 2012, first in Iraq and then globally. It has sustained this recurring surge in its global operations every year despite its concurrent territorial losses in Iraq and Syria. ISIS’s latest Ramadan campaign began in late April 2019, two weeks before the start of Ramadan on May 5. ISIS has thus far declared a new province in Central Africa, conducted a d...| Institute for the Study of War
Download the PDF Key Takeaway: Growing Turkish-Russian military cooperation in Syria is a dangerous sign of a wider shift to a closer strategic relationship between Turkey and Russia. Russia gave Turkey permission to fly air sorties into Northern Syria as part of an agreement for joint military patrols along the frontlines in Greater Idlib Province. The Turkish Armed Forces began joint frontline patrols with pro-regime forces on March 8 with accompanying overflights by the Turkish Air Force. ...| Institute for the Study of War
Download the PDF Key Takeaway: U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent decision to keep a residual force of at least 400 troops in Syria prevents the immediate takeover of valuable natural resources and infrastructure in Eastern Syria by Iran, Assad, and Russia. These actors nonetheless still have options that could lead to the defeat or expulsion of U.S. forces. The residual U.S. forces will operate at Al-Tanf on the Syrian-Jordanian Border as well as in Northern and Eastern Syria across the ...| Institute for the Study of War
Download the PDF The following graphic marks the latest installment of the Syria Situation Report (SITREP) Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Syria Direct. The map depicts significant developments in the war in Syria during the period February 18 - March 5, 2019. View the enlarged map here. Tags Syria Situation Report Syria Promote| Institute for the Study of War
Download the PDF ISIS’s post-Caliphate insurgency in Iraq is accelerating faster than efforts to prevent it by the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISIS is re-establishing capable insurgent networks in multiple historical strongholds and linking them together, setting the conditions for future offensive operations against the Government of Iraq. The U.S. and its partners should not view the current relative security in Baghdad as confirmation of the defeat of ISIS. The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition’s...| Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin is successfully increasing its political influence in Moldova. The pro-Kremlin Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PRSM) won the largest share in the February 24 Moldovan Parliamentary Elections. However, Moldova will likely be forced to call new elections within the next forty-five days due to continued deadlock in government-formation negotiations. Russia will likely bolster its disinformation campaign over the next six weeks in order to set conditions ahead of a new...| Institute for the Study of War
Key Takeaway: The U.S. needs Turkey as an active partner despite its slide into authoritarianism under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The U.S. should adopt an interest-based approach towards Turkey that shapes its behavior in line with shared strategic objectives such as reversing the gains of Iran and Russia in the Middle East. The U.S. needs Turkey to contribute actively as an ally in NATO. The U.S. and NATO face an increasinglyaggressive Russia in the Middle East and Europe.Turkey...| Institute for the Study of War
The U.S. and Afghanistan have an opportunity to advance their strategic goal of negotiating an acceptable settlement with the Taliban. Large numbers of rank-and-file militants expressed their support for peace during unprecedented joint celebrations| Institute for the Study of War
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on April 26 that Russian forces pushed all Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. Gerasimov told Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 26 that Russian forces had fully defeated| Institute for the Study of War
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations as Russian forces continue attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.| Institute for the Study of War
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray himself as an effective and knowledgeable manager of the situation along the Ukrainian-Russian border and to shift responsibility for ongoing challenges in responding to the Ukrainian incursion in the| Institute for the Study of War
Nataliya Bugayova is a non-resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) focusing on the Kremlin’s foreign policy decision-making, information operations, and global campaigns from Ukraine to Africa. Nataliya previously led ISW’s Rus| Institute for the Study of War
Join our Network We know you care deeply about America’s defense, and want to learn more about America’s strategy and engagement in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and other areas where threats continue to emerge. We hope you will sign up today to lea| Institute for the Study of War
The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, all| Institute for the Study of War