Issues — Penn Wharton Budget Model
December 12, 2019| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Estimate changes in tax revenue by selecting from a wide range of different tariff options.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
PWBM introduces a new measure of distribution that corrects numerous deficiencies in existing distributional measures that are commonly used to evaluate policy analysis.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that Senator Sanders’ estate tax proposal would raise an additional $267 billion in revenue over the 10-year budget window, 2021 - 2030.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Households in the top 5 percent of the income distribution receive inheritances between 4 to 12 times larger than households in the bottom 80 percent, depending on the exact definition of inheritance used.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that incorporating the Trump administration’s major tax proposals into the FY2025 House budget reconciliation would require that the provisions mostly sunset by December 31, 2033. Even so, primary deficits would increase by $5.1 trillion before economic effects and by $4.9 trillion after| Penn Wharton Budget Model
PWBM is a nonpartisan, research-based initiative that provides accurate, accessible and transparent economic analysis of public policy’s fiscal impact. Using the project’s research briefs and interactive budget tools enables analysis of legislation while it is drafted.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years. GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but the dynamic score is larger ($3.2 trillion) than the conventional.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits reduces incentives to save and work while increasing federal debt. Wages and GDP fall over time. The policy primarily benefits high-income households nearing or in retirement while harming households under thirty and all future generations across the ent| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) would reduce GDP by about 8% and wages by 7%. A middle-income household faces a $58K lifetime loss. These losses are twice as large as a revenue-equivalent corporate tax increase from 21% to 36%| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate President Biden’s newly proposed Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) Plan will cost between $333 to $361 billion over the 10-year budget window, more than twice as much as the cost estimate released by the Biden Administration. These costs are in addition to the one-time cost of direct loan fo| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that the Harris Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $2.0 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes a reduction in economic activity. Lower and middle-income households generally benefit| Penn Wharton Budget Model
President Biden’s new student loan forgiveness plan includes three major components. We estimate that debt cancellation alone will cost up to $519 billion, with about two-thirds of the benefit accruing to households making $88,000 or less. Loan forbearance will cost another $16 billion. The new| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that President Biden’s recently announced “New Plans” to provide relief to student borrowers will cost $84 billion, in addition to the $475 billion that we previously estimated for President Biden’s SAVE plan. Moreover, some debt relief in the New Plans accrues to borrowers in households| Penn Wharton Budget Model
PWBM estimates that President Biden’s new Income-Driven Repayment Plan (the “SAVE” plan) will cost $475 billion over the 10-year budget window. This estimate includes the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate President Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan and the Department of Education’s final re| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that the Trump Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $4.1 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes economic feedback effects. Households across all income groups benefit on a conventiona| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We relate the decline in the birth rate to two demographic factors closely associated with women’s fertility patterns: marriage and educational attainment. Married women are at least three percentage points more likely to have a child than unmarried women, and simultaneously marriage rates among wom| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that the U.S. federal government faces a permanent fiscal imbalance equal to over 10 percent of all future GDP under current law where future federal spending outpaces tax and related receipts. Federal government debt will climb to 236 percent of GDP by 2050 and to over 800 percent of GD| Penn Wharton Budget Model
