Emerging technologies catalyze changes in our workplaces, homes, and communities – and as a result, in our economy. On this page, you can find economic research and insights on the impacts of emerging technologies as well as economic research conducted using artificial intelligence and machine learning.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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The following transcript has been edited lightly for clarity.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The housing market experienced historically low levels of inventory along with rapid price growth in the two years following the onset of the pandemic. Analysis of national and county-level housing data suggests this price surge was fueled by heightened demand rather than low supply. The inflow of new listings remained at pre-pandemic levels, but the outflow due to sales was unusually high, which fed into the low inventory. By mid-2022, rising mortgage rates moderated demand, allowing invento...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
This research brief by Rocio Sanchez-Moyano of the SF Fed examines homebuying patterns during the pandemic the years that followed.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
To mark the first year since the Center for Monetary Research’s launch, the San Francisco Fed reviews the Center’s research activities and events.| San Francisco Fed
The Fed's SBCS captures how small businesses in the U.S. are doing and their experiences accessing financing. This important information is shared with lenders, policymakers, and those who support small businesses to help inform targeted solutions that build economic resilience.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. productivity is growing slower than in the past. Meanwhile, sales have become increasingly concentrated in the largest businesses. Analysis suggests that IT innovation may have facilitated the rise in concentration by reducing the cost for large firms to enter new markets. This contributed to booming productivity growth from 1995 to 2005. Though large firms are more profitable, their expansion may have increased competition and reduced profit margins within markets. Lower profit margins ...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco was established under the Federal Reserve Act in 1914 and is subject to the general oversight and supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, in Washington, D.C. The San Francisco Fed is governed by a nine‐member board of directors. Each of the four branches in Los Angeles, Portland, Salt Lake City and Seattle also has a separate seven‐member branch board. The duties and responsibilities of the head office directors are se...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
In recent years, the personal saving rate in the United States has fallen sharply, and it is now at a very low level compared either to U.S. historical experience or to the savings behavior of many other industrialized countries. From 1980 through 1994, the U.S. saving rate averaged 8%; thereafter, it fell steeply, and since mid-2000, with allowance made for the tax rebates that boosted household saving in the months of July, August, and September 2001, it has averaged approximately 1%.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Timely analysis on the current economy, economic developments, and the outlook.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Learn more about the Hawai’i region of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, including the latest news, events, and publications.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024, some widely followed indicators of recession risk flashed red. However, analysis of state-level data indicates that labor market declines were not as widespread as they had been in previous recessions. Applying this analysis to the latest d...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, ...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Regional data provide indicators measuring characteristics of the dual mandate across the nation. This page provides data on labor market conditions, prices,| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
A new weekly indicator based on data for state-level unemployment claims provides timely information on the economy’s health status.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. households accumulated significantly more wealth following the pandemic onset than would have been expected without the pandemic shock. Overall excess household wealth—measured as households’ inflation-adjusted net worth beyond pre-pandemic projections—peaked in late 2021 at $13 trillion, then rapidly fell to zero in late 2022, where it broadly remained through the third quarter of 2023. This rise and fall can be attributed mainly to financial assets, particularly equity holdings. ...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. households built up savings at unprecedented rates following the strong fiscal response and lower consumer spending related to the pandemic. Despite recent rapid drawdowns of those funds, estimates suggest a substantial stock of excess savings remains in the aggregate economy. Since 2020, households across all income levels have held a historically large share of savings in cash or other easily accessible forms. Estimates suggest that those funds could be available to support personal sp...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Note: This data page will no longer be updated. The latest estimates of pandemic-era excess savings are as of September 2024. Past data will continue to be| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. household savings rose and fell at unprecedented rates since the onset of the pandemic recession. Comprehensive data revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that households continue to hold significantly more savings than previously estimated. Our updated estimates suggest that more than $400 billion of accumulated excess savings remains in the aggregate economy, and those funds are likely to continue being drawn down into the first half of 2024.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District slowed slightly during the April to mid-May reporting period. Employment levels were generally stable amid some layoffs and attrition without replacement. Wages were up slightly, and prices across industries rose modestly. Retail sales and demand for consumer and business services softened somewhat. Manufacturing activity declined slightly and conditions in agriculture and resource-related sectors weakened somewhat. Conditions in residential and comme...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
As a Regional Executive, Stephen DeLay traveled to various cities in Northern California to gather insights from business leaders on local economic conditions. These engagements provide valuable context to guide the Fed’s monetary policy efforts.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The SF Fed is looking for exceptional college graduates to join the Economic Research team as Research Associates.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District slowed slightly during the mid-February through March reporting period. The step-down in economic activity was broad based, reported across many industries and different geographies. Employment levels fell somewhat, and employers across industries and geographies reported recent and planned layoffs. Wages grew slightly. Overall prices rose modestly, and price pressures intensified for a wide range of imported goods and materials. Demand for retail and...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The SF Fed regularly gathers regional information from across the western United States for the Beige Book, formally known as the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions. The Beige Book collects anecdotal information on regional economic conditions from Bank and Branch directors, business contacts, economists, and other sources, summarized by District and sector. Along with economic data and analysis, the Beige Book helps Fed economists and staff identify emerging trends in the e...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The zero lower bound is the concept that the federal funds rate would not be cut below zero percent. This lower bound constraint can limit the effectiveness of monetary policy when rates are at or near the zero lower bound, especially during recessions. In our Economic Letter, The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk, […]| San Francisco Fed
Here’s a snapshot of a recent outreach visit in Alaska from Mary C. Daly, President and CEO at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.| San Francisco Fed
Although revisions to monthly payroll employment data issued in August were large, they were within the historical range. Evidence continues to suggest that the incoming data are not generally subject to greater fluctuations than in the past, according to updated SF Fed analysis.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
In a recent webinar, small business development centers shared how they and the small businesses they serve have incorporated GenAI into their work and the lessons they’ve learned.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
In-depth articles offering insights from our experts' research, public engagement, and events across the 12th district and the nation.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
A new data interactive and a recent webinar from the SF Fed Community Engagement and Analysis team shed light on homeownership trends in the 12th District.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing severe disruptions to daily life and economic activity. Reliable assessments of the economic fallout in this rapidly evolving situation require timely data. Existing sentiment indexes are useful indicators of current and future spending but are only available with a lag or have a short history. A new Daily News Sentiment Index provides a way to measure sentiment in real time from 1980 to today. Compared with survey-based measures of consumer sentiment, this in...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Inflation has remained at levels well above the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal of 2% for over a year. Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in current inflation levels. Demand factors are responsible for about one-third, with the remainder resulting from ambiguous factors. While supply disruptions are widely expected to ease this year, t...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
After eight years of economic recovery, inflation remains below the FOMC’s target. Dissecting the underlying price data by spending category reveals that low inflation largely reflects prices that are relatively insensitive to overall economic conditions. Notably, modest increases in health-care prices, which have been held down by mandated cuts to the growth of Medicare payments, have helped moderate overall inflation. Further slow growth in health-care prices is likely to remain a drag on...| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to core personal consumption expenditures from cyclical and acyclical components,| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Explore the extensive work of the SF Fed: Information, research, and insights on specific topics and subtopics impacting our economy.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Established January 2011| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
We are the SF Fed, public servants with a mission to advance the nation’s monetary, financial, and payment systems to build a stronger economy for all Americans.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
New data suggest that net migration into the United States has dropped sharply in 2025 from its historical highs, falling well below previous estimates.| San Francisco Fed
In 2024, the San Francisco Fed and the Federal Reserve System Innovation Office launched the EmergingTech Economic Research Network (EERN) to support a better| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The COVID-19 pandemic upended housing markets. This blog post launches an interactive chart that accompanies our research paper on pandemic homebuyers.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
As they finish two years of working with the SF Fed Economic Research Department, several research associates will continue their academic careers through graduate studies.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Here’s a snapshot of a recent outreach in Honolulu, Hawai’i, from Stephen DeLay, Regional Executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Leilani Barnett, senior outreach manager at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shares insights from the 4th annual Idaho Rural Success Summit, highlighting how rural communities in Idaho are leveraging partnerships and resources to unlock their economic potential.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Qiana Charles, Regional Executive of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Los Angeles Branch, learned about the agricultural landscape in Kern County.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Our research associates who have been working with professional economists in Economic Research over the past two years are preparing to take their next steps, pursuing new paths and opportunities.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Emerging technologies catalyze changes in our workplaces, homes, and communities – and as a result, in our economy. Today, a new wave of emerging technology,| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Price differences across U.S. states and regions widened during the pandemic years. In our Economic Letter, “The Changing Disparity in Prices Across States,”| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
How are generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) tools being integrated into consumer product companies? Do they improve product development, marketing| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The members of the SF Fed’s Advisory Councils provide valuable perspectives from around the Twelfth District. In this edition of Advisory Council Observations, we share what we learned at our most recent council meetings.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
How much variation in labor market conditions and inflation rates is there at the sub-national level? Our Regional Indicators page maps out labor market, price, and earnings data across the country.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
U.S. household savings rose and fell at unprecedented rates following the onset of the pandemic recession. Updated estimates suggest that these excess savings have been fully spent. However, consumer spending shows no signs of losing steam, raising questions about its future path.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of U.S. economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.| Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
