By Daniel Kokotajlo, 2 July 2019 Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a concise summary of the evidence and what we learn from it, see this page. For a review of Superforecasting, the...| AI Impacts
Published June 2016; last substantial update before Oct 2017 The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that Katja Grace and John Salvatier of AI Impacts ran in collaboration with Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, and Owain Evans in 2016. Details Some survey results are reported in When Will...| AI Impacts
Tom Adamczewski, 2024 The Expert Survey on Progress in AI (ESPAI) is a large survey of AI researchers about the future of AI, conducted in 2016, 2022, and 2023. One main focus of the survey is the timing of progress in AI.1 The timing-related results of the survey are usually presented as a cumulative distribution...| AI Impacts
Max Noichl 1 This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Summary In this essay I will suggest a lower bound for the impact that artificial intelligence| AI Impacts
By Jacob Sparks This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. §1 Good AGI The explicit goal of most major AI labs is to create artificial general| AI Impacts
By Thane Ruthenis This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Summary Philosophy and wisdom, and the processes underlying them, currently lack a proper operationalization: a set| AI Impacts
By Chris Leong This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Notes| AI Impacts
By Chris Leong This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. I consider four different “obvious” high-level approaches to training wise AI advisors. I consider imitation learning to be the most promising approach as I’ll argue in an upcoming sequence on Less Wrong, however, I’ve tried to...| AI Impacts
A redefinition of the second is a foolproof way to increase the number of years between nearly any two events.| AI Impacts
Chaos theory allows us to rigorously show that there are ceilings on our abilities to make some prediction. This post introduces an investigation which explores the relationship between chaos and intelligence in more detail.| AI Impacts
Updates, research, and fundraising| AI Impacts
The history of geoengineering, nuclear power, and human challenge trials suggest that social norms and regulation exert powerful forces on the use of technology.| AI Impacts
Every survey respondent's guess about the future, lined up by expectation of the worst.| AI Impacts
AI Impacts decided to try using Manifold Markets to help us plan social events in the evenings of our work retreat. Here are some notes from that experiment.| AI Impacts
Sixteen weaknesses in the classic argument for AI risk.| AI Impacts
Katja Grace Aug 4 2022 First findings from the new 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI.| AI Impacts
Collected data and analysis from a large survey of machine learning researchers.| AI Impacts