Back in the early days of the coronavirus in the U.S., many economists believed that aggressive lockdowns would be the best long-term solution for managing the …| FiveThirtyEight
Perhaps no major event in modern U.S. history has spawned more widespread doubt than the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in Dallas in November 1963. …| FiveThirtyEight
Dear Mona, I recently read an article that said most of the prison population is religious while there are very few atheists in prison. Please tell if this is t…| FiveThirtyEight
In five Olympic sports, with medals in 18 events up for grabs, a net separates players from their opponents. In each case, before a point can get underway, some…| FiveThirtyEight
But maybe live-caller polls aren’t the gold standard anymore.| FiveThirtyEight
Which schools should the Big Ten poach next?| FiveThirtyEight
Based on what most of us would have thought possible a year or two ago, the election of Donald Trump was one of the most shocking events in American political h…| FiveThirtyEight
Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. It’s also not an easy day to characterize given the large number of polls published. You could …| FiveThirtyEight
An old “PBS NewsHour” clip, in all its dull, steady glory, pretty much pinpoints the moment that famed Iowa pollster Ann Selzer got hot. Shot on New Year’s Day …| FiveThirtyEight
Want these election updates emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here. As I wrote last week, Hillary Clinton is probably going to become the nex…| FiveThirtyEight
Here at FiveThirtyEight, our favorite election-related chart is what we officially call the “winding path to 270 electoral votes” and unofficially call the snak…| FiveThirtyEight
The 2020 primary season finally ended last month, meaning there have now been 56 statewide elections (presidential primaries, state-level primaries and even the…| FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the fortnight Because of the coronavirus pandemic, many states have taken steps to make it easie…| FiveThirtyEight
We’ve been publishing election models for more than 10 years now, and FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 House model is probably the most work we’ve ever put into one of th…| FiveThirtyEight
The media’s demand for certainty -- and its lack of statistical rigor -- is a bad match for our complex world.| FiveThirtyEight
Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of h…| FiveThirtyEight
Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists…| FiveThirtyEight
Today is Thursday, May 2, and this is Silver Bulletpoints, the column where we tackle three topics related to the 2020 primary in 300 words or less. Today’s edi…| FiveThirtyEight
But the race is closer in swing states, which could allow Trump to win the Electoral College if the race tightens.| FiveThirtyEight
EDITOR’S NOTE (May 20, 5:20 p.m.): After this article was published, a Washington-based website, Greater Greater Washington, disputed the article’s premise and …| FiveThirtyEight
The fight for D.C. statehood is hardly new. It’s been decades since Congress first introduced legislation to make Washington, D.C., a state, and 27 years since …| FiveThirtyEight
Before this year’s NBA season started, I had a conversation with a Golden State Warriors fan. He was excited about his team and was keen to explain its success:…| FiveThirtyEight
The polls asked Americans, and we asked ChatGPT.| FiveThirtyEight
So why won't the media admit as much?| FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly-ish polling roundup. It’s officially impeachment season again. On Tuesday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced that he’s directing three House committees to start investigating whether President Biden benefited from his son Hunter’s business dealings overseas. McCarthy accused the Biden family of “a culture of corruption,” saying that the Biden administration […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
The second Republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks away, so time is running out for GOP contenders to meet the Republican National Committee’s qualification criteria. To make the Sept. 27 debate, each candidate must have at least 3 percent support in two qualifying national polls, or at least 3 percent in one […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
On Wednesday, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney announced he would not run for reelection in 2024. On the surface, the electoral impact of Romney’s decision is minimal — his seat should stay safely in Republican hands. But it’s still notable because it represents the departure of one of the few remaining Republican senators who had a […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): For a long time, the economy has been seen as a big liability for President Biden in his reelection bid. Inflation soared in 2021 and 2022, culminating at a rate of 9.1 percent last June. The same […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
In his presidential campaign, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pitched himself as a transformational leader who has reshaped the politics of his home state. His 2022 reelection by 19 percentage points “was not just a big victory,” he has argued. “It was really a fundamental realignment of Florida from being a swing state to being […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
Presidents are getting older and older. Former President Donald Trump was the oldest person to assume office when he was sworn in on Jan. 20, 2017, and Presiden…| FiveThirtyEight
Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
Usually, Labor Day is considered the traditional start of campaign season — but here in 2023, it marks the end of the competitive phase of two heated special elections. Neither Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District nor Utah’s 2nd is expected to be very competitive in November’s general elections, so Tuesday’s primaries will likely determine their […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
Once more, with feeling: It has been a couple of weeks since former President Donald Trump’s latest indictment (this time in Georgia, in connection with his efforts to overturn the 2020 election there). Do the charges appear to have affected his chances of returning to the White House? After each of Trump’s three prior indictments, […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
Is the 2024 Republican presidential primary already over? If you just look at the polls, you’d be forgiven for thinking so. Consider the state of the states: Several polls published last week showed former President Donald Trump leading in Iowa (with 42 percent to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s 19 percent and South Carolina Sen. Tim […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of “good or bad use of polling” examples. They consider why GOP primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently depending on survey methodology, what we can learn from post-debate […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
When Congress voted in May to restart student loan payments this fall — and then the Supreme Court overturned President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan in June — Alexa Goins and her husband realized they had a choice: They could keep their house or they could pay off their student debt. Together, she and her […]| Features – FiveThirtyEight
The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican presidential primary debate in this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. You…| FiveThirtyEight
For more coverage of the Jan. 6 attack, read our collection of essays and reflections examining where we are as a country one year later, including what has — a…| FiveThirtyEight
If you follow the headlines, your confidence in science may have taken a hit lately. Peer review? More like self-review. An investigation in November uncovered a scam in which researchers were rubber-stamping their own work, circumventing peer review at five high-profile publishers.| FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is Sammy Davis Jr.’s rendition of “Movin’ on Up” from the television show “The Jefferson…| FiveThirtyEight
Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An ave…| FiveThirtyEight
It was historically popular -- and historically Democratic.| FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to Invisible Divides, a series exploring the profound differences in worldview between Democrats and Republicans. These beliefs about education, religio…| FiveThirtyEight
Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of…| FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior reporter): The residents of s…| FiveThirtyEight
At last week’s Republican debate, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy arguably made the biggest splash of any candidate. Sharing center stage with Florida Gov. Ron DeSa…| FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight is looking for a savvy Visual Journalist to cover U.S. politics and elections. The ideal candidate will be eager to contribute in a number of ca…| FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. maya (Maya Sweedler, senior editor): The first Republican debate last …| FiveThirtyEight
To quote the great political philosopher Cyndi Lauper, “Money changes everything.” And nowhere is that proverb more taken to heart than in a federal election, w…| FiveThirtyEight
Graphics by Ella Koeze Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Independent voters will decide the election. Or better yet: Moderate voters will decide the elec…| FiveThirtyEight
In their Group F World Cup match late last month, Argentina and Iran were still deadlocked after 90 minutes. With the game in stoppage time and the score tied a…| FiveThirtyEight
