Companies spend billions of dollars online for paid links to branded search terms. Measuring the effectiveness of this marketing spending is hard. Blake, Nosko and Tadelis (2015) ran an experiment with eBay, showing that when the company suspended paid search, most of the traffic still ended up on its website. Can findings from one of the largest companies in the world be generalized? We conducted a similar experiment with Edmunds.com, arguably a more representative company, and found starkly...| CEPR
As the global economy fragments along geopolitical lines, countries are seeking new ways to flourish, or at least insulate themselves against geopolitical shocks. Drawing from a newly constructed database, this column explores the concept of ‘connector’ countries, which can be vertical along supply chains or horizontal across markets. The authors argue that vertical connectors may increasingly come under political pressure, whereas horizontal connectors may be more resilient to geopolitic...| CEPR
The EU and the US have taken starkly different approaches to the regulation of new monies issued using distributed ledger technology. The current US administration prefers dollar-backed stablecoins, with the aim to reinforce dollar dominance worldwide. This column argues that dollar-pegged stablecoins pose a risk for the EU, but the current legal framework can ensure financial stability and prevent the digital dollarisation of the European economy. However, third countries without such protec...| CEPR
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Price setting has become more flexible following a string of large adverse shocks. This column argues that a shift to a high-uncertainty regime incentivises firms to invest in their ability to adjust prices. Faced with higher productivity uncertainty, firms set prices more flexibly, and this gives rise to comparatively large price hikes when adverse supply shocks hit. Thus, inflation surges result not merely from large shocks alone, but as a by-product of higher uncertainty. At the same time,...| CEPR
President Trump’s recent pronouncements on tariffs have received considerable attention from analysts, policymakers, and commentators. This column takes a step back and considers some of the broader arguments for raising tariffs – revenue, restriction, and reciprocity – and the potential repercussions. Even if Trump does not proceed with (all of) the announced tariffs, the increased uncertainty is likely to put off firms from trading with or from the US, lowering US exports and imports ...| CEPR
Estimates of China’s military spending relative to the US vary widely from around one quarter of US spending to near parity. This column argues that the use of appropriate relative prices and unbiased economic measurement techniques greatly reduces the range of reasonable estimates. Given current data, China’s military expenditure in PPP terms is estimated to be $541 billion, or 59% of US spending, and its equipment levels are only 42% of US levels. Comparing trends over time shows that t...| CEPR
The traditional antitrust analysis of acquisitions by large digital conglomerates relies on a handful of mechanisms to leverage market power from one narrow market into another. Yet large digital conglomerates often own fungible assets, and capabilities that can be deployed across markets. This first in a series of two columns argues that we need new approaches to articulate how an existing constellation of assets and capabilities may matter to the analysis of a deal.| CEPR
Trade union membership has been declining since the 1980s. Recently, however, there has been renewed interest in the potential of collective bargaining to address rising wealth inequality and poor wage growth. This column presents an OECD report on collective bargaining institutions and practices across member countries and selected emerging economies. Despite substantial variation across member countries, the overall pattern is one of a broad decline in the use of collective bargaining to se...| CEPR
Since the early 1980s, the US has seen a falling labour share and slow wage growth for typical workers, while measures of corporate valuations and measured markups have increased. A number of papers have argued that increasing monopoly or monopsony power can explain these trends. This column argues instead that the decline in worker power in the US economy is a more compelling explanation for recent macro trends than a broad-based rise in monopoly power.| CEPR
The US is the world’s sole military superpower. It spends more on its military than the ten next highest spending countries combined. China is now the world’s sole manufacturing superpower. Its production exceeds that of the nine next largest manufacturers combined. This column uses the recently released 2023 update of the OECD TiVA database to paint an eight-chart portrait of China’s journey to superpower status and the asymmetric impact that its dominance has had on global supply chains.| CEPR