Below, I evaluate my 2024 AI forecasts then register my 2025 forecasts. Evaluating 2024 forecasts GPT-4.5 and end of 2024 capability forecasts In Feb 2024, I made some forecasts about GPT-4.5 capabilities. Unfortunately GPT-4.5 hasn’t been released, so theoretically this hasn’t been resolved. However, I| Foxy Scout
I made a spreadsheet for forecasting the 10th/50th/90th percentile for how you think GPT-4.5 will do on various benchmarks (given 6 months after the release to allow for actually being applied to the benchmark, and post-training enhancements). Copy it here to register your forecasts. If you’d| Foxy Scout
All views are my own rather than those of any organizations/groups that I’m affiliated with. Trying to share my current views relatively bluntly. Note that I am often cynical about things I’m involved in. Thanks to Adam Binks for feedback. Crossposted to EA Forum comment (comment is| Foxy Scout
I’ve been interested in AI risk for a while and my confidence in its seriousness has increased over time, but I’ve generally harbored some hesitation about believing some combination of short-ish AI timelines[1] and high risk levels[2]. In this post I’ll introspect on what comes| Foxy Scout
tl;dr In the last 6 months I started a forecasting org, got fairly depressed and decided it was best to step down indefinitely, and am now figuring out what to do next. I note some lessons I’m taking away and my future plans. The High In December of| Foxy Scout
I just co-authored a post on AI Strategy Nearcasting: "trying to answer key strategic questions about transformative AI, under the assumption that key events will happen in a world that is otherwise relatively similar to today's". In particular, we wrote up our thoughts on how we might align Transformative AI| Foxy Scout
I've written a review of Joe Carlsmith's report Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk? I highly recommend the report and previous reviews for those interested in getting a better understanding of considerations around AI x-risk. I'll excerpt a few portions below. Thinking about reaching goal states rather than avoiding catastrophe| Foxy Scout
Introduction In my review of What We Owe The Future (WWOTF), I wrote: Finally, I’ve updated some based on my experience with Samotsvety forecasters when discussing AI risk… When we discussed the report on power-seeking AI, I expected tons of skepticism but in fact almost all forecasters seemed to| Foxy Scout
Summarized/re-worded from a discussion I had with John Wentworth. John notes that everything he said was off-the-cuff, and he doesn’t always endorse such things on reflection. Eli: I have a question about your post on Godzilla Strategies. For background, I disagree with it; I’m most optimistic about| Foxy Scout
Introduction Several recent popular posts (here, here, and here) have made the case that existential risks (x-risks) should be introduced without appealing to longtermism or the idea that future people have moral value. They tend to argue or imply that x-risks would still be justified as a priority without caring| Foxy Scout
Overview I’ve been forecasting with some level of activity for over 2 years now, so I’m overdue for a retrospective.[1] I discuss: 1. My overall track record on each platform: My track record is generally strong, though my tails on continuous questions are systematically not fat enough.| Foxy Scout
This article [https://usatodayhss.com/2018/duke-montverde-rj-barrett-living-out-matrix-moment] describes a "Matrix Moment" as part of the development of NBA players (see also this podcast [https://player.fm/series/brian-windhorst-the-hoop-collective/matrix-moments]): > It’s special to watch a player when they come to the realization that they’re unstoppable. And that’s exactly| Foxy Scout
Summary 1. I have an intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for important decisions like cause prioritization and AI strategy. 2. I’m not aware of many example success stories of crowd forecasts impacting important decisions, so I define a simple framework for how crowd forecasts could| Foxy Scout
Context The Arising Intelligence tournament is being run on Hypermind [https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/nav/navigator.html?view=challenges], consisting of "questions about progress toward general artificial intelligence". There are versions of each question resolving in each year from 2022 to 2025. There are $30,000 worth of| Foxy Scout
Originally published 2019/08/03 on an old version of my blog Imagine you’re on a walk and notice a child drowning in a shallow pond. You could rush in and save the child, but it would require ruining your $3,900 suit. Most would agree it would be| Foxy Scout
Overview What We Owe The Future (WWOTF) by Will MacAskill has recently been released with much fanfare. While I strongly agree that future people matter morally and we should act based on this, I think the book isn’t clear enough about MacAskill’s views on longtermist priorities, and to| Foxy Scout
