OCTOBER 3, 2025| Tomasz Tunguz
Nvidia's $110B vendor financing strategy mirrors Lucent's telecom bubble playbook. Analyzing customer concentration, GPU-backed debt, depreciation schedules & cash flow patterns to assess AI bubble risks.| Tomasz Tunguz
Discover why modern startups grow 85% faster pre-IPO vs 63% in 1998, requiring 5x more revenue. Data reveals 3 key trends driving unprecedented startup growth rates.| Tomasz Tunguz
Discover how SaaS revenue mix shifts as startups scale: analysis shows why retention becomes critical as recurring revenue outpaces new bookings at $25M+ ARR.| Tomasz Tunguz
Over the last few years, I’ve been lucky to work with founders and management teams to sell about $5b of startups. During that time, I’ve observed a few things about M&A. Here are 10 of my learnings: Most acquirers have built a relationship with the acquisition target. Suitors introduced during a sale process wrestle with doubts of understanding what they don’t know about the space, the team, and the business. Leaders should build relationships with partners and potential buyers if M&A ...| tomtunguz.com
71% of exit dollars in 2024 came from a new avenue : secondaries. Historically, IPOs and M&A have been the dominant exit paths for venture backed companies. Some years IPOs dominate, other M&A dominates, but in 2024 secondaries captured the super majority. When a company sells new shares to investors in exchange for dollars, they create new shares in the company - primary shares. When existing shareholders sell their shares to new investors, we call this a secondary sale.| tomtunguz.com
See also: Innovator’s Solution for SaaS Startups There’s a familiar path now to SaaS companies that start in the SMB (small-to-medium business) part of the market. Over time, they seem to inevitably begin serving larger customers. Box, Hubspot, Zendesk and among many others have exhibited this pattern. Why does this happen? I believe we’re seeing Clay Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma at play. In short, new startups leverage a distribution advantage to acquire SMB customers at scale.| tomtunguz.com