Unprecedented “binary” horse race no longer in place [Ottawa – June 24, 2025] Three months after securing a fourth mandate, the Liberals are still riding high, holding steady at 43.2 points. Meanwh…| EKOS Politics
We are all deeply saddened by the loss of our dear friend and colleague, Derek Jansen, who passed away on May 16, 2025. Please see remarks made on June 23 by Frank Graves and Susan Galley (in absentia) during a Celebration of Life for Derek here| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – June 10, 2025] In our latest poll, we examine a the post-election rebound in national confidence, unity, and trust, as well as the lasting impacts of polarization and disinformation.| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – May 20, 2025] Below is a retrospective of the 45th Canadian federal election, the forces that shaped it, and the challenges Canada faces.| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – April 28, 2025] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with tens of thousands of cases that have been collected over the past two months. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates. [...]| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – April 27, 2025] We submit our final poll for the 2025 federal election. We are selecting our 3-day rolling IVR poll as our choice to predict the final vote outcome. Our chosen final poll shows a stable six-point Liberal lead (44.4 per cent versus 36.5 per cent for the Conservatives), which we believe will produce a 184-seat majority government. The NDP is in a distant third place at 8.6 points. [...]| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa - April 25, 2025] A new EKOS poll conducted on behalf of PAX Sapiens reveals a rapid and profound shift Canadians' outlook our place in the world, and the role of defence and security in what they believe to be nothing short of an emerging new world order. This transformation has been driven by several factors but none has been more influential than the impact of the new Trump administration. Canadians no longer see the United States as a trusted ally, and they think that we need to c...| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – April 22, 2025] As we approach the conclusion of what promises to be a historic election, national identity – which had been moribund and at an all-time low last year – has made a strong comeback. This resurgence has transformed the political landscape in Canada in a manner that would have been unimaginable a few months ago. In an election where sovereignty and identity have vaulted to being the defining issues, this shift is also reflected in public attitudes to nature. This ...| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – April 21, 2025] The Liberal Party has seen a decline in its fortunes following the debates and, at 43.5 points, the party’s lead over the Conservatives has narrowed to 4.5 points. T…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa - April 11, 2025] As the election passes the midpoint and the debate milestones, it appears to have stabilized in a new more competitive eight-point Liberal lead (although we registered a 10-point lead in a concurrent online survey using our probability-based research panel, Probit). The Conservatives have experienced a modest recovery and, at 37.3 points, the party is actually running ahead of its 2021 results. [...]| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – April 17, 2025] Results reveal overwhelming support for major public investments in energy infrastructure. Nine in ten (89%) agree Canada should be positioning itself as an energy superpo…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – April 11, 2025] The race appears to have settled into a holding pattern, with the Liberal Party maintaining a stable 13-point lead. Both our three-day and five-day rolls (the latter…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – April 4, 2025] In our latest five-day roll-up, the Liberals are at 49.0 points and the party holds a hold a 15-point lead over the Conservatives, who remain steady at 33.1 per cent in our…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – March 26, 2025] In the post-writ period, the Liberal Party appears to be maintaining a commanding lead (48 per cent, compared to 36% for the second-place Conservatives). However, th…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – March 6, 2025] In a profound transformation of the political landscape, the Liberal Party has jumpstarted a moribund and dismal outcome at the beginning of the year to what would be a cle…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – February 15, 2025] The race appears to have plateaued following a remarkable narrowing in the past month. Whereas the Conservative Party enjoyed a seemingly insurmountable 25-point lead l…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – January 29, 2025] Approximately a month ago, following Freeland’s dramatic exit from the Liberal cabinet, the Conservatives opened up a seemingly insurmountable lead of 25 points. S…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – January 22, 2025] In a rather dramatic recovery, the Liberal Party has surpassed the 30-point threshold for the first time since September 2022 and now sits at 32 per cent. Indeed, the pa…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – January 17, 2025] The Liberal Party has seen a remarkable turnaround in its fortunes in recent weeks. Following Chrystia Freeland’s resignation a month ago, the Conservative lead had reac…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – January 9, 2025] Amid a flurry of recent political events, the Liberals have experienced a modest boost in their fortunes. The party now sits at 25.8 per cent, a six-point improvement fro…| EKOS Politics
[Ottawa – August 21, 2024] The Conservative Party has enjoyed a profound advantage in federal vote intention since Pierre Poilievre assumed leadership. Over the past year, this advantage has been i…| EKOS Politics
On June 21, 2024, Frank Graves was awarded the degree of Doctor of Laws, honoris causa, from Carleton University in recognition of a distinguished career in public opinion and policy research and o…| EKOS Politics
