As posted on the website of the Senate Committee on the Budget on June 27, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
CBO estimates that the partial shutdown delayed $18 billion in federal spending and suspended some federal services, thus lowering the projected level of real GDP in the first quarter of 2019 by $8 billion (in 2019 dollars), or 0.2 percent.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO examines drug purchases made through the 340B program in 2021, growth in such purchases from 2010 to 2021, and factors that contributed to that growth. CBO also assesses how the 340B program affects the federal budget.| Congressional Budget Office
As passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to produce an annual report on federal spending, revenues, and deficits or surpluses. This document provides answers to questions about how CBO prepares those baseline budget projections.| Congressional Budget Office
This guide briefly explains—in plain language—the differences between some common budgetary terms.| Congressional Budget Office
This paper describes how CBO produces its semiannual economic forecast, including background analysis, preliminary forecasts, and internal and external review. It also describes the large-scale macro model used to produce the forecast.| www.cbo.gov
This glossary defines various budgetary and economic terms that are commonly used in reports produced by CBO.| Congressional Budget Office
The number and cost of refundable tax credits have grown considerably since 1975. Federal costs (in 2013 dollars) peaked at $238 billion in 2008, but costs will fall to $149 billion in 2013 before reaching $213 billion in 2021.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055. It will be smaller and grow more slowly over the next 30 years, on average, than the agency previously projected it would.| Congressional Budget Office
As ordered reported on April 29, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated the effects on the federal budget, health insurance coverage, market stability, and premiums if payments for cost-sharing reductions would end after December 2017.| Congressional Budget Office
At a Glance The federal government provides tax credits for investments in energy sources that generate electricity without emitting carbon dioxide in the process. Two tax credits, the investment tax credit (ITC) and the production tax credit (PTC), directly support investment in wind and solar electric power. In the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline projections, those tax credits reduce federal revenues and increase federal spending.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO analyzes the economic effects of waiting to stabilize federal debt. The longer action is delayed, the larger the policy changes needed to stabilize debt. The timing and type of policy would determine its effects on different age and income groups.| Congressional Budget Office
In CBO’s projections, the economy grows relatively quickly this year and next and then more slowly in the following several years. The federal budget deficit rises substantially, boosting federal debt to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028.| Congressional Budget Office
As ordered reported on April 30, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
On September 11, 2024, the House Budget Committee convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, the Congressional Budget Office’s Director, testified about how CBO supports the Congress.1 After the hearing, Chairman Arrington and Congressmen Bergman, Burgess, and Espaillat submitted questions for the record.| Congressional Budget Office
Notes About This ReportNotes About This ReportThe budget projections in this report include the effects of legislation enacted through May 12, 2024, and are based on the Congressional Budget Office’s economic projections. Subsequent legislation that has been enacted to date would not significantly change the projections presented here.| Congressional Budget Office
On average, the effective marginal tax rate on capital income is 18 percent, but that rate varies significantly by sector. In this report, CBO estimates effective rates under current law and eight policy options.| Congressional Budget Office
Direct Spending and Revenue Effects for the Conference Agreement on H.R. 2| Congressional Budget Office
CBO responds to a request for an analysis of the distributional effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and updates the preliminary analysis it provided in a letter dated May 20, 2025.| Congressional Budget Office
As posted on the website of the Senate Committee on the Budget on June 27, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
As passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
By the NumbersThe Budget Outlook, by Fiscal YearNotesSee Appendix B.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO estimates that Medicaid work requirements under H.R. 2811 would lead to lower federal costs, an increase in the number of uninsured people, no change in employment or hours worked by Medicaid recipients, and a rise in state costs.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO analyzes the effects of work requirements and work supports on employment and income of participants in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and Medicaid.| Congressional Budget Office
As Passed by the Senate on March 6, 2021| Congressional Budget Office
The federal deficit in 2023 was $1.7 trillion, equal to 6.3 percent of gross domestic product.| www.cbo.gov
NotesNotes Unless this report indicates otherwise, all years referred to in describing budget projections are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. Years referred to in describing population and economic projections are calendar years. Numbers in the text, tables, and figures may not add up to totals because of rounding.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO examined how the benefits from major tax expenditures in the individual income tax and payroll tax systems were distributed among households in different income groups in 2019.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO estimates that plans for U.S. nuclear forces, as described in the fiscal year 2023 budget and supporting documents, would cost $756 billion over the 2023–2032 period, $122 billion more than CBO’s 2021 estimate for the 2021–2030 period.| Congressional Budget Office
In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.| Congressional Budget Office
An increase in immigration over the 2021–2026 period boosts federal revenues as well as mandatory spending and interest on the debt in CBO’s baseline projections, lowering deficits, on net, by $0.9 trillion over the 2024–2034 period.| Congressional Budget Office
In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.| Congressional Budget Office
NotesNotes Unless this report indicates otherwise, all years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.| Congressional Budget Office
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the current budget and economic outlook.| Congressional Budget Office
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.| Congressional Budget Office
Projections at a Glance The Federal Budget The deficit totals $1.6 trillion in fiscal year 2024, grows to $1.8 trillion in 2025, and then returns to $1.6 trillion by 2027. Thereafter, deficits steadily mount, reaching $2.6 trillion in 2034. Measured in relation to gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit amounts to 5.6 percent in 2024, grows to 6.1 percent in 2025, and then shrinks to 5.2 percent in 2027 and 2028.| Congressional Budget Office
In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.| Congressional Budget Office
CBO regularly publishes data to accompany some of its key reports. These data have been published in the Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates and in their associated supplemental material, except for that from the Long-Term Budget Outlook.| www.cbo.gov
At a Glance This report examines research and development (R&D) by the pharmaceutical industry. Spending on R&D and Its Results. Spending on R&D and the introduction of new drugs have both increased in the past two decades.| Congressional Budget Office
