Manifold
Manifold is a social prediction game. Bet on news, politics, tech, & AI with play money. Or create your own prediction market.| Manifold
Manifold is a social prediction game. Bet on news, politics, tech, & AI with play money. Or create your own prediction market.| Manifold
Resolved NO. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-08-05: Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. Materials Impurities: This question is specifically about LK-99. ...| Manifold
Resolved NO. The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution. If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.| Manifold
Resolved MKT. Manifold thinks Biden is 90% likely to be the Democratic Party nominee. Metaculus says it's 94%. Meanwhile, Polymarket thinks this is only 78% likely. Other real-money markets are similarly low, with ElectionBettingOdds's average putting it at 71.4%. In the 538 Politics Podcast this week, the 538 crew mostly agreed with current prediction market prices on other 2024 questions but universally agreed that Biden's chances were much higher than 78%. Nathaniel Rakich, who I might tru...| Manifold
4% chance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere| Manifold
Donate your prediction market earnings to charity on Manifold.| Manifold
