A pdf version of this article is available here An important paper, Wang et al.[1], on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published. The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf version of this article is available here I thought it was time for an update of my original analysis of 28 June 2020. As I wrote then, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf copy of this article is available here Christopher Snowdon makes some reasonable points in his 16 January 2021 article in Quillette "Rise of the Coronavirus Cranks". However, he conflates cranks and rational sceptics, resulting in much of his critique being wide of the mark or plain wrong, and rational sceptics being unfairly tarred [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf version of this article is available here A critique of the paper "Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect", by Zhou, Zelinka, Dessler and Wang. Key points The pattern effect is the dependence of outgoing radiation to space on the spatial pattern of surface warming. A pattern effect, relative to that [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf copy of this article is available here Key points The herd immunity threshold (HIT) depends positively on the basic reproduction number R0 and negatively on heterogeneity in susceptibility. Since neither of the factors on which the HIT depends are fixed, the HIT is not fixed either. R0 depends on biological, environmental and sociological [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf copy of this article is available here Key points A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England The public health agency's best estimate of B.1.1.7's weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x They mis-convert this in a reproduction number ratio of 1.47; converting appropriately gives 1.25 Confident claims [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf copy of this article is available here Introduction An interesting new paper by Marc Lipsitch and co-authors, "Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2", has recently been published.[1] It discusses immunological and epidemiological aspects and implications of pre-existing cross-reactive adaptive immune system memory arising from previous exposure to circulating common cold [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf copy of this article is available here I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), [...]| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf copy of this article is available here Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers' unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe. While it is evident that school age children can be infected| Nicholas Lewis
A pdf copy of this article is available here Introduction Readers may recall my articles in 2018 about statistical flaws in a Nature paper that claimed to show ocean warming was greater than generally thought. That paper was subsequently retracted. Nature tends to publish papers that use novel approaches and/or| Nicholas Lewis