Consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of aggregate expenditures in the economy, slows sharply during recessions. This slowdown can exacerbate employment losses and reduced production, making a recession even worse. Claudia Sahm proposes automatic direct payments to individuals to support consumer spending when the national unemployment rate rapidly rises.| The Hamilton Project
Tomorrow is Job's Day, and we will learn what the unemployment rate was in November. So, it'll also be time to update the Sahm rule, my recession indicator.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
The Sahm rule is a widely followed indicator of recessions. It's gotten a lot of attention from experts who use it to argue we're not in recession and others who weaponize it to say one is coming.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
Before Covid spread across the globe and war broke out in Ukraine, I worked on policies to fight the next recession. And so, the Sahm Rule was born.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator| fred.stlouisfed.org
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator| fred.stlouisfed.org
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator| fred.stlouisfed.org
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator| fred.stlouisfed.org
