The most important graph in AI right now: time horizon
To understand how close we are to transformative AI, here’s the metric I find most interesting right now: how long are the tasks AI can do?| Benjamin Todd
To understand how close we are to transformative AI, here’s the metric I find most interesting right now: how long are the tasks AI can do?| Benjamin Todd
This Gradient Updates issue explores how AGI could disrupt labor markets, potentially driving wages below subsistence levels, and challenge historical economic trends.| Epoch AI
Last year, HBR published a piece on how people are using gen AI. Much has happened over the past 12 months. We now have Custom GPTs—AI tailored for narrower sets of requirements. New kids are on the block, such as DeepSeek and Grok, providing more competition and choice. Millions of ears pricked up as Google debuted their podcast generator, NotebookLM. OpenAI launched many new models (now along with the promise to consolidate them all into one unified interface). Chain-of-thought reasonin...| Harvard Business Review
AI that can accelerate research could drive a century of technological progress over just a few years. During such a period, new technological or political developments will raise consequential and hard-to-reverse decisions, in rapid succession. We call these developments *grand challenges*. These challenges include new weapons of mass destruction, AI-enabled autocracies, races to grab offworld resources, and digital beings worthy of moral consideration, as well as opportunities to dramatical...| Forethought
We introduce a compute-centric model of AI automation and its economic effects, illustrating key dynamics of AI development. The model suggests large AI investments and subsequent economic growth.| Epoch AI
In recent months, the CEOs of leading AI companies have grown increasingly confident about rapid progress: OpenAI's Sam Altman: Shifted from saying in November "the rate of progress continues" to declaring in January "we are now confident we know how to build AGI" Anthropic's Dario Amodei: Stated in January "I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities... in the next 2-3 years" Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis: Changed from "as soon as 10 years" in autumn t...| 80,000 Hours
Most people think of AI as a pattern-matching chatbot – good at writing emails, terrible at real thinking.| benjamintodd.substack.com
Pro & con lists make it easy to overweight an unimportant factor. Here's a more robust method.| 80,000 Hours
Some notes on robot economics.| benjamintodd.substack.com
What if artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrives in just a couple of years, triggering an explosion in science and technology that transforms life as we know it?| benjamintodd.substack.com
Many people take jobs early in their career that leave them stranded later on. Why does this happen and how can you avoid it?| 80,000 Hours
On a supposedly difficult thing| usefulfictions.substack.com
Become a founder of an organisation tackling one of the world’s most pressing problems.| 80,000 Hours
Organisations with influence, financial power, and advanced technology are targeted by actors seeking to steal or abuse these assets. A career in information security is a promising avenue to support high-impact organisations by protecting against these attacks, which have the potential to disrupt an organisation's mission or even increase existential risk.| 80,000 Hours
