Turns out, younger people live their lives, and have always done so.| Wolf Street
The epic red-hot turnover in the labor market in 2021 and 2022 that had reshuffled the entire work force is over.| Wolf Street
US Treasury debt surged by $441 billion since the debt ceiling, to $36.7 trillion. Foreign demand for this stuff is an increasingly important issue.| Wolf Street
Waiting for lower prices, higher incomes, and lower rates.| Wolf Street
The 6-month PCE price index accelerated to 2.8% annualized, despite dropping energy prices. It’s been 2.7% to 3.3% in 2025, sharply higher than in the 2nd half of 2024.| Wolf Street
In some industries, profits surged. In others, profits sagged. By major industry.| Wolf Street
It says: “Not yet,” and “Quite a ways to go.” This trend has reversed before, but if it doesn’t and instead picks up momentum… Time to keep an eye on it.| Wolf Street
Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal| Wolf Street
Prices rose from the collapsed levels in the prior year and are back where they’d been in 1996, down by 70% from the peak in 2005.| Wolf Street
The new and improved Standing Repo Facility (SRF) sprang into action for one day at quarter-end on June 30.| Wolf Street
The job creation machine is running at a decent pace, unemployment is historically low, but it’s not evenly spread across all industries.| Wolf Street
Businesses have been paying them out of their huge profits and have not been able to pass them on to consumers so far.| Wolf Street
Companies don’t just suddenly drop everything to stew in their own juices.| Wolf Street
Last remaining bailout tool from the March bank panic goes away. Current arbitrage may have been a factor in shutting down this baby.| Wolf Street
Hopes that Return to Office will bail out the office sector of CRE seem premature: Data on office attendance and Working from Home.| Wolf Street
Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.| Wolf Street
But buybacks occur at huge losses for investors. Today it bought back a 1.25% 20-year bond for 66 cents on the dollar.| Wolf Street
And the order backlog has started rising again.| Wolf Street
For the Treasury market, Powell’s speech was a nothingburger. A Sep rate cut has been priced in since the Aug 2 jobs report.| Wolf Street
The series, started in 2017 to document visually the surging home prices amid the Fed’s interest rate repression, will now get bigger and better.| Wolf Street
Total debt rose over the years as a larger population financed more costly collateral. But income rose too.| Wolf Street
Subprime is the mother lode of profits – until it isn’t. | Wolf Street
Delinquency rates unchanged, more buyers paid cash to dodge interest rates, prime is pristine, subprime (14% of originations) is (always) in trouble.| Wolf Street
Quantitative Tightening so far has removed 41% of Treasury securities and 29% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.| Wolf Street
QT-1 blew up the repo market. This time around, the Fed wants to avoid that type of debacle so it wouldn’t have to “prematurely” end QT-2.| Wolf Street