A bit of a theme in my posts a few years ago was my 'battle' with the 'classic' trend followers, which can perhaps be summarised as:| This Blog is Systematic
Programming note: This post has been in draft since ... 2016!| This Blog is Systematic
@investingidiocy looking for my favorite statistics wonk to critique this. https://t.co/xWQMEl5LUU| This Blog is Systematic
The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increased by 1.6 points from 33.1 to 34.7, driven upwards by a surge in confidence in the overall U.S. economy. All five of the ESI’s indicators increased during this period. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy increased the most, climbing 2.6 points to 37.5. [...] Read More... from Economic Sentiment Rises as the Fed Signals Future Rate Cuts The post Economic Sentiment Rises as the Fed Signals Future Ra...| CivicScience
CivicScience clients and partners have access to our millions of daily survey responses, allowing them to generate actionable, forward-looking strategies. See what you’re missing here. With Labor Day just around the corner, Americans are already gearing up for how they’ll celebrate the long weekend. From travel and cookout plans to how they intend to spend, [...] Read More... from Travel, Cookouts and Sales: How Americans Plan to Spend Labor Day Weekend is Shifting The post Travel, Cooko...| CivicScience
CivicScience is a consumer analytics and advertising platform that captures over one million survey responses daily. Turn real-time data into actionable insights here. 1. Late-night shopping and dining might be an untapped market for retailers and restaurants that want to reach consumers under 45. America’s widening age gap isn’t just shaping politics and culture—it’s also [...] Read More... from 3 Things to Know: Gen Z Shops and Dines Late, Age Checks on YouTube & Spotify, and the Di...| CivicScience
CivicScience clients and partners have access to our millions of daily survey responses, allowing them to generate actionable, forward-looking strategies. See what you’re missing here. In today’s volatile economic environment, businesses can no longer rely solely on quarterly reports or outdated forecasts to guide critical decisions. Much like during the COVID-19 pandemic, consumer behaviors are shifting [...] Read More... from Download Now: Key Takeaways From CivicScience’s Uncertaint...| CivicScience
CivicScience clients and partners have access to our millions of daily survey responses, allowing them to generate actionable, forward-looking strategies. See what you’re missing here. With more and more platforms entering the fray, NFL fans will need to subscribe to no fewer than six streaming services this year to watch every game. That’s to say [...] Read More... from Fall and Winter Sports Look to Fuel a Fragile Boom in Sports Streaming Subscriptions—Will It Last? The post Fall and...| CivicScience
CivicScience clients and partners have access to our millions of daily survey responses, allowing them to generate actionable, forward-looking strategies. See what you’re missing here. The winter holidays might feel far off, with Thanksgiving just over 14 weeks away, but holiday shopping has already started for some. CivicScience data show 35% of holiday shoppers report [...] Read More... from The State of Holiday Shopping Today Amid Tariff-Driven Uncertainty The post The State of Holiday S...| CivicScience
CivicScience is a consumer analytics and advertising platform that captures over one million survey responses daily. Turn real-time data into actionable insights here. 1. Most social media users are uncomfortable with location sharing functions on social media amid the new Instagram Map feature, though comfort varies greatly by platform. Instagram recently launched its Map feature, [...] Read More... from 3 Things to Know: Location Sharing on Social Media, Increasing Interest in Refurbished T...| CivicScience
Recently here at Win Vector LLC we have been delivering good client outcomes using the Stan MCMC sampler. It has allowed us to infer deep business factors, instead of being limited surface KPIs (ke…| Win Vector LLC
by Nic Lewis The determination of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—the long-term warming response to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations—remains one of the most crucial yet challenging problems in climate science. Recent exchanges in the literature have highlighted both the complexity of … Continue reading → The post Addressing misconceptions about Climate Sensitivity research: a Response to recent Criticisms appeared first on Climate Etc..| Climate Etc.
By Doug Garnett & JP Castlin, July 2025 In the May 23rd edition of JP Castlin’s Strategy in Praxis newsletter we suggested businesses often face a type of uncertainty JP named “dynamic uncertainty” — a unique uncertainty revealed when we understand the inherent complexity of doing business. Dynamic uncertainty, though, is missing from the canon of uncertainty classifications. In that article we noted: …dynamic uncertainty keeps changing. Experiments lessen uncertainty in the moment ...| Doug Garnett’s Blog
In the May 23rd edition of JP Castlin’s Strategy in Praxis newsletter we suggested businesses often face a type of uncertainty JP named "dynamic uncertainty"| Doug Garnett’s Blog
Doug Garnett and JP Castlin wrote a blog post titled Complexity: The Dynamic Uncertainty of Emergence (1 August 2025).| Articles of Interest
For over 50 years, it has been known that people tend to overestimate the likelihood of uncommon events/items occurring, and underestimate the likelihood of common events/items. This behavior has replicated in many experiments and is sometimes listed as a so-called cognitive bias. Cognitive bias has become the term used to describe the situation where the […]| The Shape of Code
paths are made by walkingThis aphorism is also found in German as follows:Wege entstehen dadurch, dass wir sie gehen| Jayson Salazar Rodriguez | @jdsalaro | Blog
An objection against trying to reduce suffering is that we cannot predict whether our actions will reduce or increase suffering in the long term. Relatedly, some have argued that we are clueless about the effects that any realistic action would have on total welfare, and this cluelessness, it has been claimed, undermines our reason to... Continue Reading →| Magnus Vinding
This is only a glimpse of the data available to CivicScience clients. Discover more data. Summer’s entrance hymn had only just concluded when recent polling indicated an uptick in activity around back-to-school shopping. An early start to shopping is one way consumers are combating economic uncertainty, just as they are making changes to their summer plans [...]Read More... from Economic Uncertainty Fuels Early Back-to-School Shopping For Nearly 3 in 10 Shoppers| CivicScience
This is only a glimpse of the data available to CivicScience clients. Discover more data. CivicScience data continues to reveal a steady decline in alcohol consumption among U.S. adults aged 21 and over. Whether it’s Dry January, trying mocktails or non-alcoholic beers, or scaling back during the holidays, Americans are drinking less—and that trend shows no [...]Read More... from On the Rocks: How Shifting Priorities Are Cooling Summer Drinking — and Fueling a Rise in Soda and Cannabis| CivicScience
This is only a glimpse of the data available to CivicScience clients. Discover more data. With the economic and policy landscape evolving by the minute, gaining insight into how Americans plan to navigate the summer season—and beyond—is more important than ever. As a part of our “Uncertainty to Action” webinar series, CivicScience VP of Client Success [...]Read More... from Webinar Recap: How Uncertainty Is Reshaping Travel Intentions, Recreational Sports, and Back-to-School Shopping| CivicScience
This is only a glimpse of the data available to CivicScience clients. Discover more data. As summer unfolds under the shadow of uncertainty, American attitudes toward the season are shifting in subtle but telling ways. Among the youngest adults – those who helped define a ‘Brat Summer’ in 2024, marked by rebellious energy and unapologetic self-interest [...]Read More... from From ‘Brat Summer’ to Quiet Coping – How Young Americans Are Prioritizing Summer 2025| CivicScience
On the Ground at Cannes: There’s always a certain kind of energy on the ground at Cannes. But this year, it feels as much like a reckoning with what creativity must become as it is a celebration of a year of groundbreaking work. Yes, we’re honoring culture-shifting campaigns. But more than that, we’re witnessing a […]| FleishmanHillard
I’m speaking at the UCL Languages of the Future conference on 6th June, presenting a paper titled “Are we even talking about tomorrow? Uncertainty, agency, and the encounter with the su…| matt finch / mechanical dolphin
A fascinating preprint came across my timeline this morning1. It caught my eye because it came with an aphorism: “Data without uncertainty estimates are empty, uncertainty estimates without d…| Diagram Monkey
Sometimes, life feels out of control. The future is uncertain. We're not sure how to cope. Most of us like to feel in control. We like things to be predictable. We like it when we can plan something and make it happen. We like it when other people do what we want them to do. We like things […] The post When Life Feels Out of Control, Focus on Yourself appeared first on Dr. Sharon Martin, LCSW .| Dr. Sharon Martin, LCSW
Over my last decade in academia, I have been given many opportunities to work on cutting edge science and engineering projects in a field that brings me great excitement and joy. However, despite the interesting projects and great colleagues, it can be hard to truly thrive and work at your best when you are left […]| Voices of Academia
A particle in a collapsing well is doomed, but a wavicle in such a well will escape. This fact has enormous implications for atomic and particle physics.| Of Particular Significance
The point of such inner exploration is lost on emotionally immature people (EIPs). They’re not looking for self-discovery; they crave certainty and they insist on being right.| New Harbinger Publications, Inc
Uncertainty results in unpredictability, and two types of things cause unpredictability: novelty and complexity. Novelty uncertainty is when you can’t predict something because it has never been done before. You might not know know the existing conditions, all the actions you can take, how those actions might change conditions, and/or what the possible outcomes are. […]| Reaction Wheel
I recently participated in a LinkedIn Live discussion about how to visualize uncertainty in survey data with Bob Walker, Anna Foard, and Jon Cohen. I find myself contemplating whether we have a type of moral obligation to try to make sure our audience understands that there may be a big difference between the survey results [...] The post More thoughts on visualizing uncertainty in survey data appeared first on Data Revelations.| Data Revelations
Last week I had the pleasure of joining “2 Vikings” for a podcast interview. The 2 Vikings are Frank Nilsen and Stian Nicolaysen, two Norwegian podcasters and successful entrepreneurs (…| I-System Trend Following
かな (Kana), かも(Kamo), 気がする(Kigasuru), 思う(Omou) and more. Explore a variety of Japanese expressions that show diffeent levels of uncertainty.| Tofugu