California Democrats aim for a five-seat gain in a new gerrymander--IF voters approve it The post The Gavinmander: How We Would Rate the New California Democratic Map if Voters Approve It appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
With redistricting remaning a front-and-center topic in the news, we looked at how states that currently have one-party representation in the House could look underer fairer maps; with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) seeking a return to the Senate, we move Ohio's 2026 race from Likely R to Leans R.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
How redistricting could alter the median House seat by 2024 presidential results; what if Sherrod Brown runs for Senate? The post How the Redistricting Fight Could Change the Bias in the House (and Other Notes on the State of Politics) appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In NE-2, Rep. Don Bacon's (R) retirement pushes the seat to Leans Democratic, while North Carolina's Senate race remains a Toss-up without Sen. Thom Tillis (R).| Sabato's Crystal Ball
It's Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli in the NJ governor race, and the prospect of a new House map in Texas is a hugely important story to watch| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Just a couple of basic factors—House generic ballot polling and the number of seats the presidential party is defending—do a decent job of predicting midterm congressional election results.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024, Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In Wisconsin, liberals kept control of the state Supreme Court with Susan's Crawford's 55%-45% win last night; neither of Florida's two House special elections were that close, although GOP performances in these deep red seats was down from what Trump got in them.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of the House vote.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
During the three Trump era presidential elections, fewer than 30 of the current House districts would have supported either party at some point. Those districts are, in aggregate, likely to play a large role in determining the House's majority in the 2026 elections.| Sabato's Crystal Ball