Since 1980, the world excluding China, South America, and US (ROW) has produced fewer grains and oilseeds than it has consumed. Its production deficit has grown when measured in metric tons but declined as a share of domestic consumption. ROW’s production deficit relative to domestic consumption explains more of the year-to-year variation in the US composite grain and oilseed price than does the combined China - South America production surplus/deficit relative to domestic consumption.| farmdoc daily
Since 1980, US exports of grains and oilseeds have grown, but at a slower rate than US domestic consumption, resulting in a declining relative role of exports in the US grain-oilseed sector. The decline reflects many factors, including higher per capita income, which has increased consumption of animal protein, and the longstanding US goal of energy self-sufficiency. It is also consistent with US domestic demand being a more certain demand expansion path than exports.| farmdoc daily
Since 1980, South America’s increasing excess of its production over its consumption of grains and oilseeds has almost completely offset China’s growing excess of its consumption over its production of…| farmdoc daily