Since 1980, the world excluding China, South America, and US (ROW) has produced fewer grains and oilseeds than it has consumed. Its production deficit has grown when measured in metric tons but declined as a share of domestic consumption. ROW’s production deficit relative to domestic consumption explains more of the year-to-year variation in the US composite grain and oilseed price than does the combined China - South America production surplus/deficit relative to domestic consumption.
