Comment by Sammy Martin - Some points that didn't fit into the main post: The full survey results break down as 16 % 'Superintelligence' (i.e. some version of 'brain-in-a-box'), 16 % WFLL 2 and 18 % WFLL 1, for a total of 49% of the probability mass explicitly covered by our report (Note that these are all means of distributions over different probabilities. Adding the overall distributions and then taking the mean gives a probability of 49%, different from directly adding the means of each d...
