Suppose a casino offered the following bet. You roll six fair dice. If anything but all sixes shows up, you get $20. But if all sixes show up, you lose a million dollars. There are a number of practical problems with this game. The casino would demand a million dollar deposit in advance, and the odds are way too sensitive to imperfections in the dice and to player skill at not throwing sixes. But this is a thought experiment designed to shed light on real world financial events.
