We are making four rating changes this week—one in the Senate and three in the House—with two races getting better for Democrats and two getting better for Republicans.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
To read recent stories on the race for the House, click here. 2026 House Ratings Updated Oct. 22, 2025 House district presidential loyalty in Trump-era elections, using 2024 districts| Sabato's Crystal Ball
We are moving the Maine Senate race from Leans Republican to Toss-up, which means we now have four Senate Toss-ups: Republican-held Maine and North Carolina and Democratic-held Georgia and Michigan. The post Senate Rating Change: Maine Moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Earlier this week, Utah Republicans proposed a new House map that includes two new competitive seats. It is one of several that a judge will consider ahead of the 2026 elections. The post Two New Swing Seats? Unpacking Utah’s (Possible) New Map appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
We react to the bombshell texts from Virginia Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones that were revealed late last week, and we also take a quick look at a couple of other key races this November: California’s redistricting ballot issue and the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court retention elections. The post 2025 Key Races: Jones Texts Rock Virginia and Checking in on California and Pennsylvania appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Missouri Republicans recently passed a mid-decade gerrymander designed to give them an additional seat in the state's House delegation. We are assuming the map will be operative for 2026, but it is facing some obstacles. The post Rating the New Missouri House Map appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Democrats may be in a similar position to Republicans a dozen years ago, when the GOP tried to use a shutdown to extract concessions| Sabato's Crystal Ball
The 2028 presidential primary will help determine the future of the Democratic Party. But the schedule of that primary season remains a mystery.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. — The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. — While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom […]| Sabato's Crystal Ball
How the presidential results in the Midwest have changed over two decades| Sabato's Crystal Ball
North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key swing states to the exclusion of almost everywhere else.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
With redistricting remaning a front-and-center topic in the news, we looked at how states that currently have one-party representation in the House could look underer fairer maps; with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) seeking a return to the Senate, we move Ohio's 2026 race from Likely R to Leans R.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
How redistricting could alter the median House seat by 2024 presidential results; what if Sherrod Brown runs for Senate?| Sabato's Crystal Ball
WI-GOV moves to Toss-up while NC-SEN remains a Toss-up following major candidate announcements in both races| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and historically-low total as 2020.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy: The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next Thursday, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle […]| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free at https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalballjune2021. To submit a […]| Sabato's Crystal Ball
To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. 2026 Senate ratings Updated July 8, 2025 2026 Senate elections Post-2024 control of Senate seats| Sabato's Crystal Ball
If Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) retired, the race would probably still be rated Likely Republican, thanks to Iowa's heavy GOP lean| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In NE-2, Rep. Don Bacon's (R) retirement pushes the seat to Leans Democratic, while North Carolina's Senate race remains a Toss-up without Sen. Thom Tillis (R).| Sabato's Crystal Ball
An excerpt from our forthcoming book on the 2024 election| Sabato's Crystal Ball
While the 7 states that the Crystal Ball currently rates as Toss-ups will be important in the Electoral College, each state has several key counties. We are examining a selection of crucial counties in the "Blue Wall" states.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
It's Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli in the NJ governor race, and the prospect of a new House map in Texas is a hugely important story to watch| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Just a couple of basic factors—House generic ballot polling and the number of seats the presidential party is defending—do a decent job of predicting midterm congressional election results.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024, Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In Wisconsin, liberals kept control of the state Supreme Court with Susan's Crawford's 55%-45% win last night; neither of Florida's two House special elections were that close, although GOP performances in these deep red seats was down from what Trump got in them.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Wisconsin will hold a state Supreme Court election next week, where liberals are defending their 4-3 majority. Florida will also have two special elections for Congress on Tuesday, where Republicans should hold two deep red seats, if by smaller-than-normal margins. Pennsylvania Democrats won two legislative special elections this week, both of which had some degree of significance.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of the House vote.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
During the three Trump era presidential elections, fewer than 30 of the current House districts would have supported either party at some point. Those districts are, in aggregate, likely to play a large role in determining the House's majority in the 2026 elections.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In the Crystal Ball's first look at the 2026 Senate races, we find that Republicans are strong, but not prohibitive, favorites to keep the chamber. Early Toss-up states include Georgia and Michigan, which are Democratic-held, and North Carolina, which Republicans hold. Democrats will probably make a serious attempt at Maine, although it starts off as Leans Republican.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball flagged a number of key counties, which ended up telling us something about the overall election. This article focuses on those counties in the Industrial North states. Also in the region, Sen. Gary Peters's (D) retirement opens up a Senate seat in Michigan for 2026.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
