Key battleground states feature state Attorney General races this cycle, with Democrats playing defense in a number of key battleground states The post State Attorneys General: The Top Races to be “Top Cop” appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
California Democrats aim for a five-seat gain in a new gerrymander--IF voters approve it The post The Gavinmander: How We Would Rate the New California Democratic Map if Voters Approve It appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
With redistricting remaning a front-and-center topic in the news, we looked at how states that currently have one-party representation in the House could look underer fairer maps; with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) seeking a return to the Senate, we move Ohio's 2026 race from Likely R to Leans R.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
About half the states will hold secretary of state elections next year, with key contests coming in presidential battlegrounds The post Previewing the 2026 Secretary of State Races appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
How redistricting could alter the median House seat by 2024 presidential results; what if Sherrod Brown runs for Senate? The post How the Redistricting Fight Could Change the Bias in the House (and Other Notes on the State of Politics) appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
WI-GOV moves to Toss-up while NC-SEN remains a Toss-up following major candidate announcements in both races| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and historically-low total as 2020.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy: The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next Thursday, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle […]| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free at https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalballjune2021. To submit a […]| Sabato's Crystal Ball
To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. 2026 Senate ratings Updated July 8, 2025 2026 Senate elections Post-2024 control of Senate seats| Sabato's Crystal Ball
We are making four rating changes this week—one in the Senate and three in the House—with two races getting better for Democrats and two getting better for Republicans.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
If Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) retired, the race would probably still be rated Likely Republican, thanks to Iowa's heavy GOP lean| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In NE-2, Rep. Don Bacon's (R) retirement pushes the seat to Leans Democratic, while North Carolina's Senate race remains a Toss-up without Sen. Thom Tillis (R).| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In New York City, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani upset former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic mayoral primary. In Virginia, some interesting patterns appear when looking deeper into last week's primary returns.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
An excerpt from our forthcoming book on the 2024 election| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Of the 7 states that were considered Toss-ups during the 2024 campaign, Kamala Harris fared best in Wisconsin, although Donald Trump still carried it. Though Trump gained votes throughout the state, Harris performed respectably in several areas.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
While the 7 states that the Crystal Ball currently rates as Toss-ups will be important in the Electoral College, each state has several key counties. We are examining a selection of crucial counties in the "Blue Wall" states.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) decision to retire at the end of her term gives Democrats a liability they have not had in the last few Senate cycles: An open seat to defend in a key presidential battleground. — They arguably have a second in Arizona, too, given Sen. Kyrsten […]| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Pennsylvania changed in the Trump era from being a somewhat Democratic-leaning state to a top presidential battleground, voting for the winning candidate in all 3 of Donald Trump’s elections. One indicator of the GOP’s growth in the state is changing voter registration patterns, as Republicans have drastically reduced the Democrats’ voter registration edge in the state in the Trump era.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
It's Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli in the NJ governor race, and the prospect of a new House map in Texas is a hugely important story to watch| Sabato's Crystal Ball
A look at the 2024 electorate on age, race, and education by race| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Just a couple of basic factors—House generic ballot polling and the number of seats the presidential party is defending—do a decent job of predicting midterm congressional election results.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024, Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In Wisconsin, liberals kept control of the state Supreme Court with Susan's Crawford's 55%-45% win last night; neither of Florida's two House special elections were that close, although GOP performances in these deep red seats was down from what Trump got in them.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Wisconsin will hold a state Supreme Court election next week, where liberals are defending their 4-3 majority. Florida will also have two special elections for Congress on Tuesday, where Republicans should hold two deep red seats, if by smaller-than-normal margins. Pennsylvania Democrats won two legislative special elections this week, both of which had some degree of significance.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of the House vote.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
During the three Trump era presidential elections, fewer than 30 of the current House districts would have supported either party at some point. Those districts are, in aggregate, likely to play a large role in determining the House's majority in the 2026 elections.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
In the Crystal Ball's first look at the 2026 Senate races, we find that Republicans are strong, but not prohibitive, favorites to keep the chamber. Early Toss-up states include Georgia and Michigan, which are Democratic-held, and North Carolina, which Republicans hold. Democrats will probably make a serious attempt at Maine, although it starts off as Leans Republican.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball flagged a number of key counties, which ended up telling us something about the overall election. This article focuses on those counties in the Industrial North states. Also in the region, Sen. Gary Peters's (D) retirement opens up a Senate seat in Michigan for 2026.| Sabato's Crystal Ball
