Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Model-based estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, and related variables| www.newyorkfed.org
Until 1935, Federal Reserve Banks from time to time purchased short-term securities directly from the United States Treasury to facilitate Treasury cash management operations. The authority to undertake such purchases provided a robust safety net that ensured Treasury could meet its obligations even in the event of an unforeseen depletion of its cash balances. Congress prohibited direct purchases in 1935, but subsequently provided a limited wartime exemption in 1942. The exemption was ren...| www.newyorkfed.org
About the New York Fed| www.newyorkfed.org
Model-based estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, and related variables| www.newyorkfed.org
Gabriele La Spada is a financial research advisor in Money and Payments Studies. His main research interests are in financial economics, in particular the effect of monetary policy on financial intermediaries as well as the competition in the asset management industry. In addition, he is interested in market microstructure and financial econometrics. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University in May 2015.| www.newyorkfed.org
Thomas Eisenbach is a financial research advisor in Money and Payments Studies. His main research interests are in financial economics with links to macroeconomics, in particular the role that frictions play for financial institutions, financial markets, and the economy more broadly. He has worked on issues of financial stability such as rollover risk and fire sales, as well as on bank supervision and monetary policy transmission. His articles have been published in leading academic journals,...| www.newyorkfed.org
Marco Cipriani is the head of Money and Payments Studies. His research interests include Financial Markets Microstructure, Social Learning in Financial Markets, and Experimental Finance. Before joining the bank, Marco was a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund and an Associate Professor of Economics at George Washington University. Marco holds a Ph.D. from New York University.| www.newyorkfed.org
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Our index uses lower-frequency (weekly) metrics to construct an aggregate index of corporate bond market conditions for both the primary and the secondary markets.| www.newyorkfed.org
December 18, 2024| www.newyorkfed.org
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities. The SOFR includes all trades in the Broad General Collateral Rate plus bilateral Treasury repurchase agreement (repo) transactions cleared through the Delivery-versus-Payment (DVP) service offered by the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), which is filtered to remove a portion of transactions considered “specials”. Note that specials are rep...| www.newyorkfed.org
Data on employment outcomes for new graduates and young workers.| www.newyorkfed.org
Technical working papers| www.newyorkfed.org
Maxim Pinkovskiy is an economic research advisor in Microeconomics. Maxim's research interests include studying the world distribution of income and understanding the dynamics of the health care sector in the United States. Other research interests include public economics, economic growth and econometrics. Maxim received his Ph.D. from MIT in 2013, and a B.A. from Columbia University.| www.newyorkfed.org
Background and analysis from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel—the data set is regularly reported in the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit| www.newyorkfed.org
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In this paper, we introduce the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a new longitudinal database with detailed information on consumer debt and credit. The panel uses a unique sample design and information derived from consumer credit reports to track individuals’ and households’ access to and use of credit at a quarterly frequency. In any given quarter ranging from the first quarter of 1999 to the present, the panel can be used to compute nationally representative estimates of the l...| www.newyorkfed.org
Fields of Interest: Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Fiscal Policy| www.newyorkfed.org
Richard Crump is a financial research advisor in Capital Markets and a member of the Research Group’s Workforce and Recruiting Committee. His research interests are in Econometric Theory and Financial Economics. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics and an M.A. in Statistics from the University of California at Berkeley, along with a B.S. in Economics from MIT. Prior to graduate school he worked as an Associate in the US Economic Research Group and the Global Markets Research Group at Goldman Sachs.| www.newyorkfed.org
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NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey, which shows a sharp increase in the proportion of job seekers compared to a year ago. Satisfaction with wage compensation as well as with nonwage benefits and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs all deteriorated. The average expected likelihood of receiving an offer in the next four months increased compared to a year ago, while the ave...| www.newyorkfed.org
Where can I find the microdata? Can I apply for access for my research project? | www.newyorkfed.org
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to develop approaches and ideas for answering the most pressing questions in the fields of macroeconomics and applied econometrics.| www.newyorkfed.org
Technical working papers| www.newyorkfed.org
NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $212 billion (1.2%) in the fourth quarter of 2023, to $17.50 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. | www.newyorkfed.org
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The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. The New York Fed DSGE Model is a product of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC).| www.newyorkfed.org
Asani Sarkar is a financial research advisor in Financial Intermediation. He is working on issues related to credit intermediation by banks and nonbanks, and financial stability of nonbanks and stablecoins. His paper “Stigma in Financial Markets: Evidence from Liquidity Auctions and Discount Window Borrowing During the Crisis” received the Western Finance Association Pearson Award for the best paper on Financial Institutions and Markets in 2011. Dr. Sarkar’s papers have appeared in many...| www.newyorkfed.org
João A. C. Santos is a financial research advisor in Financial Intermediation. His research interests include financial systems design, financial intermediation, banking regulation and corporate finance. His articles have been published in the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, European Economic Review, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Journal of Banking and Finance, among other journals.| www.newyorkfed.org
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Julian di Giovanni is an economic research advisor in International Studies and a member of the Research Group’s Workforce and Recruiting Committee. His work lies at the intersection of international economics and macroeconomics, currently focusing on the international transmission of shocks and the role of firms and production linkages. Di Giovanni is on leave from the Universitat Pompeu of Fabra, where he is an ICREA Research Professor, a Research Professor at the Barcelona GSE, and a...| www.newyorkfed.org
Charts and data shedding light on disparities in people’s experience of inflation, earnings, employment, and consumer spending.| www.newyorkfed.org
Nicola Cetorelli is the head of Financial Intermediation. Prior to joining the New York Fed, he was a Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. His research has focused on financial intermediation activities, both banks and nonbanks. He has published extensively in scholarly journals, among which The Journal of Finance, Journal of Economic Theory, American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics. He has also written many articles in various policy journals and book ...| www.newyorkfed.org
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Donghoon Lee is an economic research advisor in Microeconomics. His primary research interests include housing economics, household finance, and labor economics. Prior to joining the New York Fed, Mr. Lee was an assistant professor at New York University. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania.| www.newyorkfed.org
Andrew Haughwout is the deputy director of research in the Research and Statistics Group. He is a co-editor of the Liberty Street Economics blog and a co-editor of the Bank's Economic Policy Review. In addition to his duties at the Bank, he is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar and serves on the Advisory Board of the Journal of Regional Science. He is a past Chair of the North American Regional Science Council and the Federal Reserve System Committee on Regional Analysis. Prior to jo...| www.newyorkfed.org
Developing and advancing techniques to measure economic conditions, expectations, and behavior at the consumer level| www.newyorkfed.org
Rajashri Chakrabarti is an economic research advisor in Microeconomics and chair of the Research Group’s Data Strategy Committee. Her areas of interest include labor economics, consumer finance and economics of education. Her research focuses on educational investment decisions and future financial and economic outcomes, consumer debt and repayment, financial literacy, costs and returns to post-secondary education and educational finance and accountability. Prior to joining the NY Fed, Raji...| www.newyorkfed.org
Marco Del Negro is an economic research advisor in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies. He is also the director of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC), a CEPR Research Fellow, coeditor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and chair of the Research Group’s Technology Strategy Committee. Mr. Del Negro's research focuses on the use of general equilibrium models in forecasting and policy analysis. Before joining the Bank, he was a research economist and associate policy ...| www.newyorkfed.org
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The federal funds market consists of domestic unsecured borrowings in U.S. dollars by depository institutions from other depository institutions and certain other entities, primarily government-sponsored enterprises.| www.newyorkfed.org
Wilbert van der Klaauw is an economic research advisor in Microeconomics. He is also the director of the Center for Microeconomic Data and chair of the Research Group’s Workforce and Recruiting Committee. He is a labor economist and applied econometrician whose research interests include the study of life cycle labor supply and occupational choice decisions, household financial behavior and expectations, the economic determinants of household formation and dissolution, educational investmen...| www.newyorkfed.org
Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households| www.newyorkfed.org
About the New York Fed| www.newyorkfed.org
