With an explosion of different polling and forecasting methods in recent years, it can be hard to make sense of the noise. In this Bi_Focal, we take a deep dive into the four public MRPs published during the election campaign, analysing their differences and assessing how they compare to historical results.| www.focaldata.com
On the eve of the election, Focaldata in partnership with Prolific can reveal our final seat forecast of the 2024 general election. We find Labour on course for a 238-seat majority, a record-breaking result that sees the party winning 444 seats, based on a 40% share of the national vote (-1.4pp since our last drop). The Conservatives are expected to win in 108 constituencies (-2 since our last drop), based on a 23.2% vote share (+0.2pp).| www.focaldata.com