Weather data confirms a mild start to autumn, but forecasts farther into fall 2025 are mixed for Manitoba. The post Will Manitoba’s warm fall linger? appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.| Manitoba Co-operatorWeather & Farming Articles - Manitoba Co-operator
Learn how financial forecasting provides a roadmap for growth, boosts scenario planning, supports cash flow, and drives strategic financial planning.| Paro - Professional Business Finance and Accounting Solutions
Analyst forecasts may not take into account the distribution, particularly the skewness, of potential outcomes. A forecast of the most likely profit can significantly differ from the more relevant probability weighted expected value. Whether a forecast is a mean or a mode is also important in financial reporting. Most IFRS standards, including IFRS 9 regarding loan impairments, require a probability weighted expected value; however, this is not universal. In some cases, such as IAS 37 regardi...| The Footnotes Analyst
Not using AI in your revenue forecasting processes yet? 3 experts swear it's a shortcut to better, faster forecasting, and a healthier pipeline.| Revenue Operations Alliance
Launching your business in a while? Have financial clarity of how your business will perform financially over the next couple of months and a year by building clear forecasts. Read more| Upmetrics
Tired of Excel guesses? This guide covers the best revenue forecasting software for small businesses. We compare tools like Upmetrics, QuickBooks, Anaplan, and more, plus how to choose one that actually fits your business. If you want easier, faster, smarter forecasts, start here Read more| Upmetrics
This framework answers the question: “How do you ensure you have enough salespeople to capture every opportunity without burning through budget?”| Revenue Operations Alliance
The past decade has seen explosive growth in forecasting research and applications using AI. Sophisticated new approaches show vast potential to support public safety, health, and economic prosperity.| Eos
Energy-Storage.news proudly presents our sponsored webinar with GridBeyond, on extracting the maximum value from battery storage assets in Great Britain (GB) and Ireland.| Energy-Storage.News
The post AI-enhanced decision making appeared first on 80,000 Hours.| 80,000 Hours
… continued from last post. The last set of cross-validation results are based on training of held-out data for intervals outside of 0.6-0.8 (i.e. training on t<0.6 and t>0.8 of the data, which extends from t=0.0 to t=1.0 normalized). This post considers training on intervals outside of 0.3-0.6 — a narrower training interval and correspondingly … Continue reading Simpler models … alternate interval| GeoEnergy Math
… continued from last post. Each fitted model result shows the cross-validation results based on training of held-out data — i.e. training on only the intervals outside of 0.6-0.8 (i.e. training on t<0.6 and t>0.8 of the data, which extends from t=0.0 to t=1.0 normalized). The best results are for time-series that have 100 years … Continue reading Simpler models … examples| GeoEnergy Math
This article in MIT News: “New research shows the natural variability in climate data can cause AI models to struggle at predicting local temperature and rainfall.” … “While…| GeoEnergy Math
A vital skill for project managers is controlling project costs and budget management. This involves the estimating, allocating, monitoring and […] The post Controlling Project Costs Throughout the Project Lifecycle appeared first on Parallel Project Training.| Parallel Project Training
Want to be met with smiles and claps on the back when you present your forecast? Alignment across teams is essential. Here's how to get it.| Revenue Operations Alliance
The second part of the AI 2027 timelines model relies primarily on insufficiently evidenced forecasts.| Reflective altruism
Andrew Ward discusses the continued relevance of Excel-based forecasting as part of a forecasters software toolkit, highlighting its flexibility, transparency, and universal accessibility.| Evaluate
Demonstrating progress in forecast accuracy (and therefore its utility to the business) will pay massive dividends for you as a revenue operations professional.| Revenue Operations Alliance
We sat down with two experts to nail down the metrics you need to be tracking for accurate revenue forecasts you can rely on.| Revenue Operations Alliance
How do you hand-off complexity while still delivering a forecast that’s accurate enough to be useful?| Revenue Operations Alliance
John Lorenc dives deep into forecasting, and shares the elements you need to master in order to forecast accurately, step-by-step.| Revenue Operations Alliance
Since they’re of direct strategic benefit to your business, revenue forecasts have implications for your career (and salary) progression.| Revenue Operations Alliance
Boost podcast revenue with AdsWizz using smart forecasting, dynamic delivery, and advanced audience targeting.| AdsWizz
Rapid GDP growth, due in part to high rates of investment and capital accumulation, has raised China out of poverty and into middle-income status. But progress in raising living standards has lagged, as a side-effect of policies favoring investment over consumption. At present, consumption per capita stands some 40 percent below what might be expected given China's income level. We quantify China's consumption prospects via the lens of the neoclassical growth model. We find that shifting the ...| Liberty Street Economics
Economic surveys are very popular these days and for a good reason. They tell us how the folks being surveyed—professional forecasters, households, firm managers—feel about the economy. So, for instance, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) website displays an inflation uncertainty measure that tells us households are more uncertain about inflation than they were pre-COVID, but a bit less than they were a few months ago. The Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professiona...| Liberty Street Economics
Ryan Greenblatt — lead author on the explosive paper “Alignment faking in large language models” and chief scientist at Redwood Research — thinks there’s a 25% chance that within four years, AI will be able to do everything needed to run an AI company, from writing code to designing experiments to making strategic and business decisions.| 80,000 Hours
On RealClimate.org Paul Pukite (@whut) says 1 JUL 2025 AT 9:48 PM Your comment is awaiting moderation. “If so, do you have an explanation why the diurnal tides do not move the thermocline, whe…| GeoEnergy Math
Pharma industry trends 2025. Find 3 standout insights from Evaluate’s World Preview 2025 webinar, including the rise of integrated biotechs & China’s growing role. Watch now on demand.| Evaluate
Fiction can be liberating. It offers authors latitude to think, propose, and prognosticate about real-world topics in ways that non-fiction does not allow. The ability to ask "what if?" can be an incredible tool in the national security realm that can inform real-time, real-world efforts and offer "solutions" to wicked problems. Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan has joined the ranks of fiction writers to help leaders think about what conflict with the People's Republic of China (PRC)...| A Better Peace: The War Room Podcast
I was once long ago asked to write a review of Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2006) and was, like a lot of people, very impressed. If you’re not familiar with the book, the gist is that Tetlock, a psychologist, runs a 20 year study asking everybody […]| Digifesto
Key considerations for creating more accurate patient-based product forecasts.| Evaluate
How can we wrap our minds around futures that are at once immensely complex, and riddled with uncertainty? How can we assess the likelihood of a whole range of possible outcomes? Jon Worth, Brexit …| Tim van Gelder
Biotech industry insights. Discover the key factors for biotech commercialization success, including strategic planning, hiring, and funding.| Evaluate
Choosing the best time series algorithm for accurate pharmaceutical sales forecasts. Explore automated and manual approaches.| Evaluate
Discover 3 key insights from our webinar on first to market advantage in the pharma industry. Learn how these findings can impact your portfolio strategy.| Evaluate
Trend analysis and forecasting are some of the most exciting uses of LLMs and Generative AI. This reports proposes a framework of just how to perform this with consumer accessible, and friendly tools.| Prompt Engineering Institute
As temperatures rise on the peninsula, freshwater quality is expected to change — affecting both salmon and humans, new CASC-funded research suggests.| International Arctic Research Center
The landscape for competitive intelligence means trying to support a lot of different needs. It’s hardly surprising that CI teams can feel pulled in many directions.| Evaluate
On March 11, 2025, Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor of The Atlantic magazine, a left-leaning publication, received an invitation to a Signal group chat from U.S. national security advisor Mike Waltz. On March 13, on the verge of a total lunar eclipse, he was added to the group. Surprised it wasn’t a hoax, Goldberg read text discussions by top national security officials about a planned attack on Houthis in Yemen. To his surprise, he found it was real on March 15, when the attacks were car...| Karen Christino
IEA forecasts a 4% annual surge in global electricity demand through 2027, driven by industrial growth and electrification| A greener life, a greener world
Salmon, caribou, permafrost, and wildfire are just some of the priority areas identified by this year’s primary investigators.| International Arctic Research Center
A climate science breakthrough likely won’t be on some massive computation but on a novel formulation that exposes some fundamental pattern (perhaps discovered by deep mining during a machine learn…| GeoEnergy Math
Limited disaggregation of income and expense items with different characteristics impair investors’ ability to assess and forecast performance. Recent proposals by the IASB for a new disaggregation principle and related disclosures of ‘unusual’ items will help. However, in our view, they do not go far enough. The IASB also proposes to include management alternative performance measures (non-GAAP or non-IFRS) within audited financial statements. We welcome this. Additional subtotals can ...| The Footnotes Analyst
Looking back at my performance in my first every Metaculus’ Quarterly Cup (Q4 2024), there’s a lot of room left for improvement. This post compares the different forecasting methods I used and what their results were. Thanks to some analysis, I then figure out what I can improve: stick to reasonable probabilities; use fat-tailed distributions to forecast; avoid the trap of nowcasting; update my predictions more often. This post also explains the fundamentals of log scores and how scoring ...| obrhubr.org
Learn how generative AI in finance and accounting can assist everything from forecasting to document creation and more.| Paro - Professional Business Finance and Accounting Solutions
Learn how budgeting models and financial models work together to optimize decision-making. Get practical steps for alignment and smarter financial planning.| Paro - Professional Business Finance and Accounting Solutions
What is capacity planning and how does it work? Learn how agencies use capacity planning software to forecast capacity and plan for demand.| Parallax
Washing out occurs when there is significant cancellation between possible positive and negative consequences of our actions when taking expectations.| Reflective altruism
In June, 1991, Al H. Morrison’s article, “Two Centuries of Pluto in Signs” appeared in The Mountain Astrologer magazine. He began with a backward look at Pluto in Gemini through Scorpio, then added a forecast of what he considered likely with Pluto in Sagittarius through Aries (ending in 2097). Here’s his take, over 30 years before the fact: | Karen Christino
What is resource management? Discover the benefits and strategies of implementing strong resource management in your business.| Parallax
Another U.S. presidential election is past, and many astrologers, including myself, were wrong about the country’s choice. Why? Astrology, by its nature, is not good at predicting outcomes. | Karen Christino
Stock-based compensation grants to employees in 2020 are likely to be affected by the changes to share prices and reduction in profitability currently being experienced by many companies. However, the impact on the related expense and on reported profit may not be what you might expect. For most companies, stock-based compensation is a ‘sticky’ expense that is only indirectly or partially affected current period changes. Limited disclosure in financial statements makes forecasting this ex...| The Footnotes Analyst
Del Negro takes a look at whether professional forecasters' measures of uncertainty are in line with the size of the prediction errors they make.| Liberty Street Economics
The 2020 Jupiter-Saturn conjunction cycle heralds a notable generational change, as it initiates a new 800-year phase of conjunctions in air signs. In Aquarius, it’s combined with Pluto’s final entry into that sign, after the presidential election in November 2024. These markers may help us consider the results of the election. | Karen Christino
Introduction To borrow a term from Hyndman, the following is going to come out as a bit of a muddle. However, that may be the honest way to survey a muddled situation. I am going to write on time s…| Win Vector LLC
The future for dividends to be paid during the remainder of 2024 by the firms that make up the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) dimmed since our previous update. | politicalcalculations.blogspot.com
Based on the previous post on applying Dynamic Time Warping as a metric for LTE modeling of oceanic indices, it makes sense to apply the metric to the QBO model of atmospheric winds. A characterist…| GeoEnergy Math
Explore predictive analytics in logistics, with diverse applications and real cases from DHL, Maersk, and learn how to start implementing it.| Transmetrics
Tomer's Take: I typically stop regular ski/snow blog posts after April 1 each season. Going forward, I'll post less frequently with other topics. In this post I cover Western Snowpack, a look back at my Winter forecast, May 2024 forecast, La Nina Watch, and Summer Monsoon forecast.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer's Take: It's a powder day in UT/WY/CO! The next storm system hits the Sierra this afternoon then rolls towards the Four Corners with snow for UT/WY/CO/NM through 4/1. A pattern shift after 4/2 delivers 1-2 additional Canadian storm storm systems. The first week of April looks active.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer’s Take: Big totals are likely through 4/6 with 3-4 different storm systems, and I think we’re looking at an active April with above normal snowfall across parts of Colorado’s Western Slope, Utah’s Wasatch, and Wyoming’s Tetons. Timing Wasatch: L/M Tonight, L PM 3/29, H 3/30 – AM 4/1, H PM 4/4-4/6. Tetons: M 3/30, […] The post Snow forecast through 4/6 appeared first on Meteorologist Chris Tomer.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer’s Take: Two storm systems are lined-up through 4/2 then a pattern shift occurs with a third storm system dropping south from Canada with heavy snow accumulation. Timing Two Storm Systems Through 4/2 Then Shift North. Third Storm System Trending Stronger 4/3-4/6. Sierra: H Tonight – AM 3/28, H PM 3/29-3/31. Tetons: H 3/28, L […] The post Snowy Period Ahead through 4/5 appeared first on Meteorologist Chris Tomer.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer's Take: Light to moderate snow accumulation hits UT/WY/CO through early 3/27. Heavier accumulation arrives 3/28-3/31 with two additional storm systems. A pattern change occurs 4/3-4/5 with energy dropping south out of Canada/BC/PNW.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer’s Take: It’s a powder Monday in UT/WY/CO/NM! This storm system is pivoting through Southern Colorado and New Mexico next 12-24 hours then away. There are three additional storm systems lined-up through 4/3. Timing *Updated 4pm 3/25/2024. Storm System pivots out of CO/NM. Three Storm Systems Remaining through 4/3. Sierra: H PM 3/27-3/30. Tetons: L […] The post Three Storm Systems Through 4/3 appeared first on Meteorologist Chris Tomer.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer's Take: A strong storm system spins up in SE CO/NM tonight through 3/25 with heavy snow accumulation and 30-50mph wind gusts. The heavy snow continues into 3/26 in NM. There are three additional storm systems lined-up for the West through 4/2.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer’s Take: I’m forecasting four different storm systems for the West through late 3/31 with feet of grand total accumulation. Timeline *Updated 4pm 3/22/2024. Snow moving into the Sierra tonight through early 3/24. Four Storm Systems Through 3/31. Sierra: H Accum PM 3/22- AM 3/24, H 3/27-3/30. Tetons: H Accum 3/23-3/24, L 3/26-3/27, H 3/28-3/31. […] The post This Weekend & Beyond appeared first on Meteorologist Chris Tomer.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer's Take: Now I'm seeing four different storm systems through 3/30. This means feet of grand total accumulation for PNW/MT/ID/CA/WY/UT/CO.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Tomer’s Take: Big totals are likely 3/22-3/28 with three different storm systems lined-up for PNW/BC/MT/ID/CA/UT/WY/CO. Timing Pattern Shift After 3/21, Three Storm Systems. Sierra: Heavy Accum PM 3/22 – AM 3/24. Tetons: L/M Accum 3/21, H 3/23-3/28. Wasatch: Light Accum PM 3/21, H 3/23-3/28. Colorado: Light Accum PM 3/21-3/22, H 3/23-3/28. Banff Area: Heavy Accum […] The post Big totals with three storm systems lined-up through 3/28 appeared first on Meteorologist Chris Tomer.| Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Discover how to elevate performance management beyond annual reviews using Connection, Conversation, and Coaching.| blog.engagerocket.co
The authors present an update of the economic forecasts generated by the New York Fed's dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.| Liberty Street Economics
Home prices spike as people seek out backyards and more space during the pandemic.| Priceonomics
In this article, we’ll look at job applications. Are people looking for work currently or still shying away from employment due to the virus?| Priceonomics
Just how much do low-income Americans who get pay payday loans pay for housing?| Priceonomics
The places in America with the most and least people above the age of 65 years old.| Priceonomics
An analysis of traffic death by state, drunk driving, and who buckles their seatbelt.| Priceonomics
Earlier this year, my research group commissioned 6 questions [https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=JSAI] for professional forecasters to predict about AI. Broadly speaking, 2 were on geopolitical aspects of AI and 4 were on future capabilities: * Geopolitical: * How much larger or smaller will the| Bounded Regret
China's leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of "a mid-level developed country by 2035." Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China's investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit i...| Liberty Street Economics
