Looking back at my performance in my first every Metaculus’ Quarterly Cup (Q4 2024), there’s a lot of room left for improvement. This post compares the different forecasting methods I used and what their results were. Thanks to some analysis, I then figure out what I can improve: stick to reasonable probabilities; use fat-tailed distributions to forecast; avoid the trap of nowcasting; update my predictions more often. This post also explains the fundamentals of log scores and how scoring ...
