January 2024 - Reflective altruism
I review Wlil MacAskill’s arguments in What we owe the future for high levels of existential biorisk. I argue that they are insufficient.| Reflective altruism
I review Wlil MacAskill’s arguments in What we owe the future for high levels of existential biorisk. I argue that they are insufficient.| Reflective altruism
Should we expect means-end rational agents to preserve their goals? Southan, Ward and Semler are skeptical.| Reflective altruism
This post discusses the impact of human biodiversity theory (HBD) on LessWrong| Reflective altruism
The second part of the AI 2027 timelines model relies primarily on insufficiently evidenced forecasts.| Reflective altruism
The second part of the AI 2027 timelines model relies primarily on insufficiently evidenced forecasts.| Reflective altruism
I've updated the audio voice and interface for the blog. Let me know what you think! The post Meta (Audio updates) appeared first on Reflective altruism.| Reflective altruism
The AI 2027 report relies on two models of AI timelines. The first timelines model largely bakes hyperbolic growth into the model structure. The post Exaggerating the risks (Part 19: AI 2027 timelines forecast, time horizon extension) appeared first on Reflective altruism.| Reflective altruism
This post introduces the AI 2027 report.| Reflective altruism
A leading power-seeking theorem due to Benson-Tilsen and Soares does not ground the needed form of instrumental convergence| Reflective altruism
This post discusses the impact of human biodiversity theory (HBD) on the EA Forum| Reflective altruism
Effective altruists continue to be leaders in providing evidence-based global health solutions.| Reflective altruism
Power-seeking theorems aim to formally demonstrate that artificial agents are likely to seek power in problematic ways. I argue that leading power-seeking theorems do not succeed.| Reflective altruism
Many longtermists think that existential risk mitigation escapes the scope-limiting factors. To what extent is this true? The post The scope of longtermism (Part 5: A case study – Existential risk) appeared first on Reflective altruism.| Reflective altruism
This post discusses the impact of human biodiversity theory (HBD) on LessWrong| Reflective altruism
Effective altruists often show admirable degrees of altruism.| Reflective altruism
After its closure, the Culture War Thread found a new home at The Motte.| Reflective altruism
Maarten Boudry and Simon Friederich argue that natural selection may not produce selfish artificial systems| Reflective altruism
This post discusses the influence of HBD on the community surrounding Slate Star Codex and Astral Codex Ten.| Reflective altruism
Washing out occurs when there is significant cancellation between possible positive and negative consequences of our actions when taking expectations.| Reflective altruism
This post discusses the influence of human biodiversity theory on Astral Codex Ten and other work by Scott Alexander.| Reflective altruism
Suppose I'm right that there is an enduring tension between Existential Risk Pessimism and the Time of Perils Hypothesis. What follows?| Reflective altruism
I apply the results of our previous discussion to analyze a common mistake in the valuation of existential risk reduction, focusing on a recent paper by Piers Millett and Andrew Snyder-Beattie.| Reflective altruism
So far, we considered two arguments for the Time of Perils Hypothesis: an appeal to space settlement and an existential risk Kuznets curve. In this post, I look at a third argument, which appeals to wisdom.| Reflective altruism
A second argument for the Time of Perils Hypothesis, due to Leopold Aschenbrenner, draws on the idea of an existential risk Kuznets curve. Could this argument vindicate the Time of Perils Hypothesis?| Reflective altruism
Parts 1-3 of this series suggested that the best way to reconcile Existential Risk Pessimism with the Astronomical Value Thesis is through the Time of Perils Hypothesis. But should we believe the Time of Perils Hypothesis? One argument that is often made for the Time of Perils Hypothesis appeals to space settlement. Let's look more carefully at that argument.| Reflective altruism
In Part 2 of this series, we looked at failed ways out of the tension between Existential Risk Pessimism and the Astronomical Value Thesis. Now let's introduce a hypothesis that might resolve the tension.| Reflective altruism
In Part 1 of this series, we saw how the Pessimistic view that existential risk is high might come into conflict with the Astronomical Value Thesis that it's very important to mitigate existential risk. It turns out that this conflict is robust to many ways of challenging the initial argument.| Reflective altruism
Toby Ord predicts a one in a thousand chance that climate change will lead by 2100 to irreversible existential catastrophe. But what does the evidence say? Here we begin to get a different story.| Reflective altruism
Suppose that humanity faces very high levels of existential risk. Surely that means we should do more to mitigate existential risk, right? Surprisingly, the opposite is true.| Reflective altruism
Rapid diminution occurs when the probabilities of large long-term impacts diminish more quickly than their sizes increase. Rapid diminution tends to shrink the scope of longtermism.| Reflective altruism
At times, effective altruists show strong regard for scientific, scholarly and journalistic authority. But sometimes they do not.| Reflective altruism
In this paper and blog series, I suggest that the scope of longtermism may be narrower than many longtermists suppose.| Reflective altruism
This post discusses Richard Hanania's views and his involvement with the effective altruism movement| Reflective altruism
Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 9: Objections and replies)| Reflective altruism
Exaggerating the risks (Part 17: Biorisk, taking stock)| Reflective altruism
This post begins a two-part investigation into biorisk from LLMs. I argue that a recent GovAI report provides limited support for existential biorisk from LLMs.| Reflective altruism
Toby Ord suggests that humanity faces a 3% risk of existential catastrophe from biological causes in the next 100 years. I review Ord's arguments and argue that they are insufficient to ground this estimate.| Reflective altruism
Can existing arguments by effective altruists ground high estimates of existential biorisk? I consider three estimates provided by Piers Millett and Andrew Snyder-Beattie.| Reflective altruism
Rounding out the initial case for skepticism about existential biorisk, I give four final reasons to suspect that existential biorisk may be lower than many claim it to be.| Reflective altruism
Extraordinary claims requires extraordinary evidence, but that evidence is not always provided. I look at two examples of extraordinary claims based on rather less than extraordinary evidence, then draw lessons from this discussion.| Reflective altruism
Continuing my treatment of existential biorisk, I give four further reasons to suspect that existential biorisk may be lower than many claim it to be.| Reflective altruism
Effective altruists often argue that biological phenomena pose a significant near-term existential risk. In this post, I give some preliminary reasons to doubt that claim.| Reflective altruism
Many effective altruists think that humanity faces high levels of existential risk. In this series, I look at some places where the risks may have been exaggerated.| Reflective altruism
This post concludes my sub-series on existential biorisk by drawing lessons from the previous discussion| Reflective altruism
The singularity hypothesis holds that the intelligence of artificial agents will grow at a rapidly accelerating rate, producing an intelligence explosion. This post introduces a new paper criticizing the singularity hypothesis.| Reflective altruism
This post discusses the events at Manifest 2023 and Manifest 2024, which platformed a number of scientific racists.| Reflective altruism
In response to recent events at Manifest 2024, I am organizing a fundraiser for the NAACP. Please join me if you are so moved.| Reflective altruism
This series discusses the influence of race science on the effective altruism movement and adjacent communities.| Reflective altruism
This post continues my investigation of biorisk from LLMs by looking at a recent redteaming study from the RAND Corporation.| Reflective altruism
Calculations of the value of existential risk mitigation efforts should not neglect the harms done by those efforts. This post focuses on one such harm: distraction from near-term risks.| Reflective altruism
I review Wlil MacAskill's arguments in What we owe the future for high levels of existential biorisk. I argue that they are insufficient.| Reflective altruism
